Carlos Ulberg is a -275 favorite vs Jan Blachowicz (+225 undedog) in the light heavyweight co-main event at UFC London on March 22.
Ulberg, ranked sixth, has surged up the rankings in recent years. While injuries have slowed "Black Jag" down, he is one of the division's more polished kickboxers. Meanwhile, Blachowicz is coming off two shoulder surgeries and a two-year layoff at 42 years old.
The Ulberg vs Blachowicz odds are on the move, though. Ulberg opened around -200 and is already at -275.
Ulberg vs Blachowicz Betting Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg | -275 |
| Jan Blachowicz | +225 |
Odds as of March 18
How to Bet Ulberg
At light heavyweight, most fighters carry the benefit of being able to win by decision or KO. Ulberg's streak of five straight finishes ended last time out vs Volkan Oezdemir, who had a careful plan for handling Ulberg. While Oezdemir threatened a takedown less than I expected, he dug into Ulberg's lower half with kicks and strikes. Jan has a mean body kick, so I'd watch for how Ulberg plays defense early.
Jan will dictate the pace, forcing Ulberg into a fight that alternates between intense exchanges and clinches against the fence. It could be a lot of feeling out and then a simultaneous trading of strikes. That's where Ulberg wins. He is faster with his hooks and possesses more lateral explosiveness.
Blachowicz is notoriously durable, with just one career KO loss in 2022, and he will likely mix in several takedown attempts. If you're betting on Ulberg, the smart play is to take him by decision at +137.
How to Bet Blachowicz
A Blachowicz KO, especially at his age, would be shocking. If we discount the Aleksandar Rakic injury TKO, Jan technically hasn't stopped an opponent since Dominick Reyes in 2020. That's five fights without a KO victory. Heavier fighters keep their power even into their 40s, but I have little faith in Blachowicz's capacity to outstrike Ulberg.
So now what? Well, I believe Blachowicz's best route to victory is by using his wrestling like he did against Alex Pereira. Jan scored three takedowns in that three-round fight and managed 7:32 minutes of control time (between the mat and the fence). It was ugly but it made that fight very difficult for the judges to decide.
Ulberg has been taken down just once in his UFC career, but Blachowicz is extra tricky. He essentially sat on Israel Adesanya for 25 minutes to defend his LHW belt back in 2021. Ulberg, like Izzy, is long and fights with an upright stance, giving Blachowicz room to snatch a leg.
I like Blachowicz by decision at +500 here. +225 ML is fine, of course, too.
Ulberg vs Blachowicz Pick: UFC London
Blachowicz hasn’t scored a KO in over three years, and his best chance against Ulberg lies in using wrestling, as he did with Pereira. While Ulberg has solid takedown defense, Blachowicz’s ability to control elite strikers like Adesanya makes him confusing to fight. I’m lowering my unit size to 0.33 and betting on Blachowicz by decision at +500. Ulberg's experience just isn't there yet.
