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UFC: McGregor vs Aldo II Odds Analysis

McGregor vs Aldo II Betting Odds

It is quickly approaching one year since we have seen Conor “Notorious” McGregor inside the Octagon. Meanwhile, his old adversary Jose “Junior” Aldo seems to be a step behind the top-level guys in the featherweight division, most recently losing to Alexander Volkanovski in May. With neither of these fighters currently booked for a fight, a rumor has come out that Aldo will make the jump to lightweight to take on McGregor in a rematch of their 2015 meeting.

Online sportsbook Bovada has set McGregor as the -205 favorite in a rematch, with Aldo coming back at +165.

Odds Analysis

This is quite the odds shift from the first time these two competitors met four years ago. When McGregor and Aldo squared off at UFC 194, then champion Aldo was a slight -112 favorite with the challenger coming back at -108. That being said, I anticipate people seeing tremendous value on Notorious at -205 and this line could get pounded up to -260 or even further, which could provide some decent value on Junior.

After beginning his UFC career 7-0, Aldo has gone 3-4 in his last seven fights but his losses have come against McGregor, Max Holloway (twice) and most recently Alexander Volkanovski. Some believe that a change in weight class could rejuvenate the 32-year-old. Similarly, McGregor was 7-0 to begin his career in the Octagon and has gone 2-2 since moving up a weight class, with losses to Nate Diaz and Khabib Nurmagomedov, both by submission.

How Will This Fight Play Out?

It’s really hard to say because the first fight ended so quickly – in 13 seconds, to be exact, with McGregor setting up a beautiful left hand that put Aldo to sleep for the first time in his career. Many argue that Notorious had owned real estate in Junior’s head, which caused him to storm forward out of anger and led to his demise.

There’s video from McGregor’s locker room ahead of the fight of him planning the step-back left hand, knowing Aldo would charge in, eerily similar to Jorge Masvidal’s video practicing the flying knee for Ben Askren.

If Aldo can remain composed, work his leg kicks and stay patient, he may have a path to victory as we have seen McGregor tire later in fights, particularly in the championship rounds where Aldo can continue to push the pace. That being said, who’s to say that the Ireland native doesn’t get under the skin of the Brazil native once again and earn a quick first-round knockout.

Personally, I don’t put a lot of stock in the rumor. I don’t think the fight makes a lot of sense as McGregor should fight Tony Ferguson to be next in line to fight Khabib or Dustin Poirier. But crazier things could happen and this would make for a potentially great co-main event at UFC 244 at Madison Square Garden.

Odds To Win
Conor McGregor-205
Jose Aldo+165

Odds as of July 31 at Bovada