Brandon Moreno is a -200 favorite vs Steve Erceg (+170 underdog) ahead of UFC Mexico City on March 29.
Moreno is on a war path toward another flyweight title shot, and a dominant win over Erceg, ranked eighth, at home in Mexico might just do the trick.
The Moreno vs Erceg odds have moved a tad. Moreno opened closer to -188 and has since grown to a -200 favorite.
Moreno vs Erceg Betting Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Brandon Moreno | -200 |
| Steve Erceg | +170 |
Odds as of March 26
How to Bet Moreno
I believe this is a very good matchup for Moreno, who pitched a shutout vs Amir Albazi at UFC Edmonton in November. He made the walk to the cage with dark eyes ahead of that fight and unleashed a strong pace for an easy 25-minute decision win. It looked like Moreno lost his spark for fighting amid a two-bout losing skid, so it was great to see the fire rekindled last time out.
Erceg is aggressive and has strong grappling skills, but that's not all that different from how Moreno approaches fights. I expect Moreno to outdo Erceg on the feet, countering his pressure and leaning on wrestling reversals if this fight heads to the mat. Moreno's acrobatics will play large in this fight.
I love Moreno ML at -200 for parlay purposes. You can boost your odds by doing Moreno ML + the OVER 2.5 rounds to get better value.
How to Bet Erceg
If you like Erceg, take him at +170. Though for greedy folks, an Erceg by decision bet also makes sense because Moreno has never been finished in his official UFC career (he has one TUF submission loss to champ Alexandre Pantoja). Like Erceg, Moreno is a whiz on the ground and should be able to roll out of any submission attempts.
Still, Erceg hits hard and could presumably knock Moreno on his butt. Alas, Moreno fought famous hard-hitting flyweight Deiveson Figueiredo four times and didn't suffer a stoppage loss.
I'm steering clear of Erceg, if only because he's fresh off a tough first-round KO loss, and Moreno is heating up.
Moreno vs Erceg Pick: UFC Mexico City
Moreno is a crowd favorite, and I expect him to avenge his loss last year in Mexico City with a much better performance in 2025. His new matchup, Erceg, is much better than Brandon Royval, and the odds allow us to capitalize on "The Assassin Baby."
I'm going Moreno ML + the OVER 2.5 rounds in one parlay.
