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UFC: Rose Namajunas vs Jessica Andrade Odds Analysis

The Octagon sets up shop once again in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on May 11 for UFC 237, headlined with a fight for the women’s strawweight title as “Thug” Rose Namajunas makes her second title defense vs Jessica “Bate Estaca” Andrade. Both fighters are looking to extend their three-fight winning streaks with the challenger, Andrade, being a -130 favorite and the champ, Namajunas, coming back at EVEN money.

Odds Analysis

Rose Namajunas is an underdog in a championship fight – we have seen this before, as she closed as a huge +525 dog in her first fight vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk at UFC 217, a fight that she won in the first round via TKO. This is the third straight bout in which Thug has been an underdog. That includes her rematch with Joanna that she won via unanimous decision after she closed at -107 and Jedrzejczyk at -113. She typically rises to the occasion so I’m not surprised to see her open at EVEN money.

Jessica Andrade was a massive favorite in each of her last two fights, most recently closing as a -450 favorite vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz at UFC 226, a bout she dominated with a nasty knockout in the first round. Bate Estaca was an underdog in back-to-back fights not long ago. She closed at +185 when she challenged for the belt against Jedrzejczyk at UFC 211, suffering the only loss in her last seven fights, and she was at +215 for her subsequent fight with Claudia Gadelha. Her last three fights have been absolutely one-sided in her favor so entering the Octagon as a fave doesn’t surprise me.

Who Will Win Between Namajunas and Andrade?

This fight features two of the elite in the women’s strawweight division and Jessica Andrade is coming off a devastating knockout victory over Karolina Kowalkiewicz, while Rose Namajunas is coming off back-to-back wins over Joanna Jedrzejczyk, the latter’s only losses in that division. Thug has good wrestling with an above-average submission game. She has five submission victories to her name and has never been knocked out.

Bate Estaca is extremely well-rounded and big for the division as she used to fight at bantamweight and has a win over Raquel Pennington, who has fought for the bantamweight championship. She has landed 432 significant strikes to her opponents’ 160 over her last three bouts. Namajunas hasn’t fought since April of last year so it’ll be interesting to see what improvements she has made but I expect a war on May 11.

UFC 237: Rose Namajunas vs Jessica Andrade Betting Odds
Rose NamajunasEVEN
Jessica Andrade-130

Odds as of May 10 at Bovada