Sergei Pavlovich is a -330 favorite at FanDuel over Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+240 underdog) ahead of their heavyweight tilt meeting at UFC Saudi Arabia on Feb. 1.
The Pavlovich vs Rozenstruik odds greatly favor the powerful Russian, who despite some key heavyweight wins, is on a two-fight losing streak. Rozenstruik, a veteran kickboxer, has won two straight bouts.
Pavlovich vs Rozenstruik Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich | -330 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | +240 |
Odds as of Jan. 31 at FanDuel
How To Bet Pavlovich
Pavlovich got blasted for a KO loss vs Tom Aspinall at the end of 2023. He entered his next fight in June 2024 vs Alex Volkov as sizeable chalk (-245). Pavlovich couldn't work around Volkov's frame in that fight, losing a 15-minute decision where his fellow countryman pumped him with jabs and kicks.
Now Sergei meets Rozenstruik, who isn't quite as talented as his previous two opponents but can hold up in a 15-minute striking fest. However, this is the heavyweight division; one nuke always beats 10 jabs. Pavlovich has the nuclear option, and Rozenstruik isn't known as a super fast fighter with crisp footwork.
All told, when Sergei enters for a big, explosive sequence, Rozenstruik will try to counter and also throwdown. That's not a great idea. Volkov used his size to cut Pavlovich off and frustrate him defensively. Jairzinho doesn't have those kinds of physical advantages.
I wish the odds weren't so steep in Sergei's favor. On paper, this fight is much closer than the odds suggest. Still, the best bet you can lay is Pavlovich by knockout.
How To Bet Rozenstruik
"Bigi Boi" has quietly carved out a quiet rebound over the last few years. He has three wins in his last four contests with his lone loss coming by submission to grappling specialist Jailton Almeida.
I like Rozenstruik as an underdog here, and I'll justify my bets by turning to his experience. He now has 15 UFC fights to Pavlovich's nine, plus Rozenstruik fought in 85 kickboxing matches before joining the UFC. Overall, the Surinamian is a more technical martial artist.
Pavlovich should come out banging, and it'll be up to Rozenstruik to not end up the way he did vs Francis Ngannou in 2020 (out f'ing cold). Rozenstruik prides himself as a defensive fighter (2.74 sig. strikes absorbed per minute), while Pavlovich eats much more volume at 5.03 sig. strikes absorbed. Of course, Rozenstruik throws far less volume.
If the fight starts slow, with both men feeling each other out in Round 1, I like Rozenstruik at +240.
Pavlovich vs Rozenstruik Picks: UFC Saudi Arabia
Pick your poison. You're either in the Pavlovich KO camp or the Rozenstruik ML camp. With my analysis (and my gut feeling), I'll take a cautious risk on Rozenstruik.
I wouldn’t recommend betting more than a unit on Rozenstruik as the underdog since the odds in this fight make strategic betting tricky. This isn't a spray-and-pray play, but I'm gaming the odds with modest expectations. We'll see if Rozenstruik surprises everyone.
