Song Yadong is a -275 favorite over Henry Cejudo (+225) on FanDuel ahead of this bantamweight main event at UFC Seattle on February 22.
Both fighters are set to rebound off a loss, but the Cejudo vs Song odds have me caught off guard. The public is fading Cejudo's age, but I'm not so sure we can instantly anoint Song Yadong as such a wide favorite.
Cejudo vs Song Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Henry Cejudo | +225 |
| Song Yadong | -275 |
Odds as of Feb. 18 at FanDuel
How To Bet Cejudo
Cejudo might not be in his prime, but calling him washed feels premature. He held his own against Aljamain Sterling and even took a round off Merab Dvalishvili. Sure, he’s taken a step back, but is it enough to put him below someone like Song Yadong? I'm not sure. And to consider him a +225 underdog seems even crazier.
Boxing with Song is not a good idea. Cejudo must land at least one takedown per round for this fight to swing his way. Song yields takedowns at a 72% clip, suggesting there is room for some exploitation.
I don't recommend blind betting, but this Cejudo line simply isn't accurate to the actual probability he wins this fight. +225 suggests a 30.77% chance of Cejudo winning. I'd say he's closer to 40% (+150). For that reason, I like a one-unit Cejudo ML bet.
How To Bet Song Yadong
At 37, Cejudo is too old for bantamweight contention, and he and Song have the same number of UFC fights, despite the Chinese native being 10 years his junior. Song is experienced, but he’s struggled against top-tier opponents like Petr Yan and Cory Sandhagen, and his win over Ricky Simon doesn’t hold much weight anymore.
I don’t see anything in Song’s game that justifies him being a -275 favorite. This feels more like the public overreacting to Cejudo’s age than a reflection of their actual skill levels.
Still, Song can win this fight with his pure aggression. His best strategy is to test the theory that Cejudo is too old. It didn't work for Gregory Rodrigues last week vs Jared Cannonier, but if Song pressures Henry heavily in the first round, he could rack up the damage he needs to win.
I'm not sure Song scores a KO, but I'm also not keen on risking a decision bet. To me, the best bet on the chalk is a parlay of Song + OVER 2.5 rounds for -120 value.
UFC Seattle: Cejudo vs Song Picks
I'm taking Cejudo. At +225, the odds undervalue his chances, making a one-unit bet on his moneyline a solid play. The OVER 4.5 rounds (-165) is also in play for me, but I've yet to decide how to use it.
