Odds Shark Top Sportsbooks
*Terms and Conditions apply to all bonus offers on this website. Visit operator for details.

How To Get The Best Value Betting on UFC Strawweights

Tecia Torres kicks Michelle Waterson at UFC 218.

The UFC’s lightest division – women’s strawweight – has become a division filled to the brim with technically gifted athletes. That being said, there are some things that technical proficiency can’t overcome, the biggest of which is knockout power.

How rare are finishes at the 115-pound division? Since the beginning of April 2017, there have been 25 strawweight bouts, with only six of them ending via stoppage. In addition, only two of those bouts ended in a knockout (Namajunas vs Jedrzejczyk and Cooper vs Magana).

However, this low stoppage rate means that 76 percent of the above-mentioned women’s strawweight fights have made it to the judges’ scorecard. This provides an interesting case study for UFC bettors, as it is no great secret that stoppages are hard to come by at 115 pounds.

Wagering the “fight goes the distance” prop seems like a no-brainer considering the lack of finishes in the strawweight division. However, 15 of the 25 fights above saw that line close at -200 or higher, with four eclipsing the -300 line. If you had blindly bet $100 on the going-the-distance prop in each of those bouts, you would have netted a $277.10 profit. Not exactly enough to retire on considering that works out to be roughly an $11 profit per bout.

To try to find the best spot to get a strawweight “go the distance” prop, we will categorize each of the bouts based on its “go the distance” prop line – those categories will be -300 or higher, -200 to -299 and -199 or lower.

‘Going The Distance’ Prop Records For Last 25 Strawweight Bouts
Prop OddsProp Record+/-*
-300 or greater2-2-$139.27
-200 to -29911-0+$444.94
-199 or lower6-4-$28.57

*Per $100 bet

It is clear that the sweet spot for bettors comes in the -200 to -299 range, with all 11 of those fights ultimately being determined by the judges. With a line at -300 or higher, even one loss is enough to hurt your bankroll and there is not enough value in the -199 or lower range to take the risk of a finish.

There you have it – the best way to get the most bang for your buck betting the UFC’s women’s strawweight division.