Odds Shark Top Sportsbooks
*Terms and Conditions apply to all bonus offers on this website. Visit operator for details.

UFC: Usman vs Masvidal Odds Analysis

Kamaru Usman and Jorge Masvidal posing in photoshoots

The welterweight title will be on the line in the main event of UFC 251 on Fight Island this Saturday, July 11, between Kamaru “The Nigerian Nightmare” Usman and Jorge “Gamebred” Masvidal. This fight was supposed to be between Usman and Gilbert Burns but the latter tested positive for COVID-19 a week before the event and in stepped Masvidal.

Online sportsbook Bovada has released odds for this title fight and has listed the champion, Usman, as the -235 favorite with the challenger, Masvidal, coming back as a +185 underdog. 

Kamaru Usman vs Jorge Masvidal Betting Odds
Kamaru Usman-235
Jorge Masvidal+185

Odds as of July 10 from Bovada

New to betting on the fights? Check out our UFC betting guide to get you in the action. Also, keep an eye on our UFC odds page for the latest up-to-date betting lines.

What are the Odds for Usman vs Masvidal?

Being an underdog is nothing new for Jorge Masvidal, who has closed as such in five of his last six bouts. Meanwhile, the Nigerian Nightmare has been favored in all but one of his 11 UFC fights, closing as a ‘dog only to Tyron Woodley when the two fought at UFC 235 for the welterweight strap. The odds for both of these fighters make a lot of sense and are set correctly, in my opinion.

Masvidal has had a meteoric rise over the last year with his flying knee knockout over Ben Askren and headlining at Madison Square Garden where he won the first-ever – and perhaps only – BMF title fight vs Nate Diaz. As for Usman, he continued his rise through the ranks, finally getting his title shot with Woodley and dominating for 25 minutes to win the belt. He then defended his gold against the self-proclaimed “People’s Champ,” Colby Covington, at UFC 245 with a fifth-round knockout.

How Will This Fight Play Out?

I expect Usman to try to stand and trade with Masvidal in the early stages of the fight as I’m sure he’s brimming with confidence following his late-fight finish of Covington at UFC 245. Gamebred should have the tactical and speed advantage in these striking exchanges, which will lead to the Nigerian Nightmare searching for a takedown.

I believe this is where the fight will be won or lost. Usman averages 3.44 takedowns per 15 minutes and has exceptional conditioning that allows him to wrestle for the full 25 minutes of a five-round championship bout. However, Masvidal stuffs 78 percent of takedown attempts and is extremely good at scrambling and getting out of danger on the floor. He has only been taken down five times over his last seven bouts.

Which Fighter has the Most Betting Value?

Obviously, betting on the underdog will give you the best bang for your buck. In this case, though, I’m not sure Masvidal is the best man to wager on. If he’s unable to stuff Usman’s takedown attempts, he will be swarmed for the length of the fight and lose a lopsided decision. Additionally, if the champion’s striking continues to improve and evolve, he may actually have an edge on the feet as well. Betting on a -260 favorite can be a tough pill to swallow for some, but it might be the better value.