Vera (right) is favored in the Vera vs Cruz odds

Vera vs Cruz Odds & Picks: The Dominator A Solid Underdog Bet

In a classic tangle of young vs old, bantamweights Marlon Vera (21-7-1) and Dominick Cruz (24-3) will square off in a five-round main event Saturday at Pechanga Arena in San Diego, California. 

Prelim bouts begin at 4:30 p.m. ET and the main card kicks off at 7 p.m., where Vera sits as a moderate -240 favorite in the Vera vs Cruz odds.

Sportsbook has you covered for any and all Vera vs Cruz betting, as well as other UFC odds, including Usman vs Edwards II odds and picks.

Vera vs Cruz Betting Notes

It’s crazy to think that “Chito,” at just 29 years old, has been in the UFC since 2014. It’s taken the Ecuadorian a very long time to earn the respect he deserves, but now he’s at that point. Vera, ranked fifth, enters Saturday as a Sportsbook of four of his last six bouts, including knockouts of Frankie Edgar and Sean O’Malley. 

Cruz, the eighth-ranked bantamweight, has faded away from the top fighters in the division of late. Between a four-year layoff after 2016 and a dedication to his career as a UFC commentator, the 37-year-old hasn’t exactly turned heads with his last two decision wins in the Octagon. 

That said, “The Dominator” is still one of the best bantamweights in company history. He’s a very smart fighter, and he’s competing in his hometown of San Diego. This matchup won’t be easy for Vera.

UFC Fight Night: Vera vs Cruz Odds

Sportsbook lists Vera as the -240 chalk, while Cruz enters as a +185 underdog.

Fight fans hoping for a big score can turn to the prelims, where a women's catchweight bout between Angela Hill and Lupita Godinez sees Hill pegged as the card’s biggest underdog at +280. 

The tightest odds on the card appear in a prelim bantamweight fight between Youssef Zalal (-130) and Da’Mon Blackshear (+110).

Bet On Vera vs Cruz Here

UFC Fight Night: Vera vs Cruz Betting Odds & Fight Card

UFC Fight Night: Vera vs Cruz Betting Lines And Fight Card
  • Main Card
  • Bantamweight – Marlon Vera (-240) vs Dominick Cruz (+185)
  • Featherweight – David Onama (-335) vs Nate Landwehr (+265)
  • Middleweight – Bruno Silva (-300) vs Gerald Meerschaert (+235)
  • Light Heavyweight – Azamat Murzakanov (-165) vs Devin Clark (+128)
  • Women's Flyweight – Nina Nunes (+160) vs Cynthia Calvillo (-200)
  • Women's Strawweight - Yazmin Jauregui (-218) vs Iasmin Lucindo (+171)
  • Prelims
  • Heavyweight – Lukasz Brzeski (+230) vs Martin Buday (-310)
  • Lightweight – Gabriel Benitez (-360) vs Charlie Ontiveros (+275)
  • Flyweight – Ode Osbourne (-350) vs Tyson Nam (+265)
  • Women's Catchweight – Angela Hill (+280) vs Lupita Godinez (-375)
  • Bantamweight – Youseff Zalal (-130) vs Da'Mon Blackshear (+110)
  • Welterweight – Jason Witt (+220) vs Josh Quinlan (-280)
  • Women’s Bantamweight – Ariane Lipski (-200) vs Priscila Cachoeira (+163)

Odds as of August 13 via Sportsbook

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UFC Fight Night: Vera vs Cruz Broadcast Information
  • Date/Time: August 13, 4:30 p.m. ET
  • Location: San Diego, California
  • Arena: Pechanga Arena
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass, Cable Provider

Marlon Vera vs Dominick Cruz Odds & Pick

Marlon Vera-240
Dominick Cruz+185

Vera’s typically not a distinguished favorite, as he’s flip-flopped between chalk and underdog over his last several fights or so. At -240, Chito sports his most heavily chalked odds since a fight vs Nohelin Hernandez (-500) at UFC 239, which he won by second-round submission. 

Cruz, on the other hand, is no stranger to the lack of respect from sportsbooks. In all three fights since his return to MMA in 2020, Dom has been listed either close to even or as the underdog. His only loss in his last three came when he challenged Henry Cejudo (+175) for the bantamweight strap at UFC 249.

Looking at the Vera vs Cruz odds, our sports betting calculator tells us Vera’s -240 odds represent an implied win probability of 70.59 percent. Cruz's +185 odds earn him an implied 35.09 percent chance to win. That means a successful $10 bet on Vera pays out $4.17, whereas the same wager on Cruz would pay out $18.50.

Cruz: Need to Knows
  • Because Cruz is so technical, he often doesn't end up in wild exchanges that result in knockouts. 16 of Cruz’s 24 wins have come via decision. While Vera has 12 of his 19 wins by finish, we expect this fight to go into at least Rounds three and four. 
  • The Dominator keeps things smooth and elusive in the Octagon. He’s an unorthodox striker who darts laterally and swings his head around at an unpredictable pace. His whole strategy is based on avoiding damage, which makes him frustrating to fight and puzzling to gameplan for. It will be very hard for Vera to finish him, even with five rounds to do so. 
  • As a cerebral fighter, Cruz prides himself on making mid-fight adjustments. If Chito comes out ripping off multiple calf kicks, Cruz will turn his shin out and counter with a hard right hand. The 37-year-old also has a very strong wrestling base that he can turn to for a level change if things go south. 
  • Cruz’s last three fights have come against Pedro Munhoz (win – unanimous decision), Casey Kenney (win – split decision) and Henry Cejudo (loss – technical knockout).
Vera: Need to Knows
  • Vera’s stock has never been higher than it is right now. If Chito can best Cruz, that’ll be his fourth straight win, vaulting him into the title conversation. The 29-year-old knows this. Vera’s never been finished, and Cruz isn’t likely to be the first to shut the Ecuadorian's light's out. Expect Chito to come out of the gates with lots of pressure.
  • Vera loves to switch stances, but he spends most of his time as a southpaw. Cruz, an orthodox fighter, might have trouble ripping off combos, since Chito’s guard (his right hand) will be mirrored with Cruz’s left jab, making it hard to break through. Cruz already has trouble finishing opponents. Things won’t get easier with a stance disadvantage and a granite-chinned opponent in Vera.
  • Chito’s lower half is often his X-factor on the back end of combos. His powerful front kick slept Edgar, but I’d watch for those knees in tight. Vera can push his way in close with traditional boxing combos, but he’s extra effective when he uses his powerful knees to the body as a substitute for an uppercut punch. This strategy helped him defeat Rob Font. 
  • Vera’s last three fights have come against Font (win – unanimous decision), Edgar (win – knockout), Davey Grant (win – unanimous decision). 

Pick: Cruz by decision (+250)

David Onama vs Nate Landwehr Odds & Pick

David Onama-335
Nate Landwehr+265

A featherweight showdown between Onama (10-1) and Landwehr (15-4) will be the co-main on Saturday. The Ugandan opens as the -335 favorite, leaving the American at +265. 

Onama, who made his UFC debut in 2021, comes in with two straight stoppage victories, while Landwehr holds a 2-2 UFC record but won his last fight via anaconda choke.

Onama: Need to Knows
  • Onama is a very free-flowing striker, often switching stances without compromising power or effectiveness. If the damage to his lead leg becomes too great, he’ll mix it up and keep moving forward. All 10 of the Ugandan’s wins have come by stoppage, with his latest handiwork – a vicious first-round KO of Gabriel Benitez – proving how deadly he can be. 
  • “The Silent Assassin” also has a strong ground game. Not only can he level-change when hurt, but he’s a legitimate submission threat on the canvas. Onama uses his size to bully other featherweights into vulnerable positions, a strategy that led to his second-round arm triangle victory at UFC Vegas 58.
  • Onama’s last three opponents were Garrett Armfield (win – submission), Benitez (win – knockout) and Mason Jones (loss – unanimous decision). 
Landwehr: Need to Knows
  • “The Train” takes way too much damage, which only fuels his reputation as a brawler. Oftentimes, Landwehr favors putting on a show instead of winning the fight, which is fine for the sport, but not always ideal for bettors. Landwehr loves mixing it up in tight, however he’s a bit prone to tunnel vision, where he gets fixated on the finish and doesn’t protect from damage (see his KO loss to Herbert Burns).
  • Landwehr is 2-0 as an underdog in the UFC and 0-2 as the favorite. On Saturday, he faces a +245 status, which, if the trend continues, has potential for solid value. Since he and Onama love to swing for the fences, there’s a chance Landwehr lands one shot that puts his opponent out.
  • The 33-year-old’s last three fights were against Ludovit Klein (win – submission), Julian Erosa (loss – technical knockout) and Darren Elkins (win – unanimous decision).

Pick: Onama by KO/TKO (-110)

Devin Clark vs Azamat Murzakanov

Devin Clark+128
Azamat Murzakanov-165

This card isn’t exactly littered with household names, but there’s an intriguing light heavyweight matchup between Devin Clark (13-6) and Azamat Murzakanov (11-0) that we want to zone in on. 

Clark: Need to Knows
  • Like most light heavyweights, Clark boasts a stout frame and heavy punching power. The 32-year-old loves to attack and throw heavy combos on a regular basis, but that aggression has worked against him in the past. At UFC 231, Clark dropped Aleksandar Rakic, then got too trigger-happy, lunging in and eating a counter shot that scrambled his balance and resulted in a first-round TKO. 
  • “Brown Bear” possesses a very strong wrestling background, however his jiu-jitsu is a little suspect – that part was exposed in his first-round submission loss to Anthony Smith in 2020. Clark has three losses by submission, and with Murzakanov’s offensive ground game, there’s a chance he has to stave off some tough grappling once again.
  • Clark’s last three fights were against William Knight (win – technical knockout), Ion Cutelaba (loss – unanimous decision) and Smith (loss – submission). 
Murzakanov: Need to Knows
  • The Russian will be making just his second UFC appearance after stopping Tafon Nchukwi by flying knee in his debut. Murzakanov looked ready for the task in his first fight, but Clark, who’s fought big names like Rakic, Smith and Jan Blachowicz, poses a different type of threat. Watch for Clark to fight much smarter than any opponent Murzakanov has faced before.
  • Murzakanov is a creative striker. In his debut fight vs Nchukwi, he was smart enough to make an adjustment, learning to dip his head to avoid his opponent's strikes and wing hooks on the counter-attack. Ultimately, Murzakanov found a may to back up the Cameroonian and nail him with an up-the-gut flying knee for a third-round KO. 
  • “The Professional” beat Nchukwi (knockout) in his first UFC fight. Before that, he defeated Matheus Scheffel (technical knockout) and Mohammed Fakhreddine (knockout).

Pick: Murzakanov by KO/TKO (+120)

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