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Belfort Not Pulling Off Upsets In Twilight Of Career

There was a point in time when Vitor Belfort was one of the most feared men in mixed martial arts. A hyper-athletic bomber who broke down his opponents with precision and power.

Those days are a memory now. The 40-year-old still has power in his strikes but his chin has evaporated, his output is deteriorating and his game is one-dimensional.

“The Phenom” has not been able to parlay his explosive strikes into shocking upsets during his later years, as Belfort has not won as an underdog since UFC 103. That event, which was Belfort’s return to the company after four years away from the UFC, took place on September 19, 2009.

Since that date, Belfort has closed as a plus-money underdog on five occasions. The former UFC light heavyweight champion has gone 0-4 with 1 no contest in those fights – 0-5 if you count his loss to Kelvin Gastelum, which was eventually overturned once Gastelum tested positive for marijuana.

If you faded Belfort in each of those five fights, you would be up just a hair over $128 – assuming you wagered $100 on each bout. Not great but still better than being down the $500 if you backed Belfort in each of those fights.

However, there is a way to find more value in these bouts – assuming Belfort has not found the fountain of youth. All five of those defeats saw the aging Brazilian lose via stoppage. If you took each of Belfort’s five opponents to win within the distance, you would be up a healthy $207.42.

Remember when I mentioned Belfort’s deteriorating chin? Well, it’s been a big reason for many of these losses. Each of Belfort’s past four losses – all of which saw him close as a betting underdog – has come via TKO. Taking Belfort to lose via TKO in those four fights would net bettors a profit of $665.39.