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Waterson vs Hill: Fight Night Odds & Expert Picks

The women take center stage for this week’s UFC Fight Night card when Michelle Waterson takes on Angela Hill in the women’s strawweight division.

This card takes place at the UFC Apex Performance Center in Las Vegas, Nevada, this Saturday, September 12, and we have a full breakdown and the betting odds for UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs Hill.

Waterson has dropped her last two outings in the Octagon, both by decision, after riding a three-fight winning streak. “The Karate Hottie” has risen near the top of the strawweight division twice but has lost to the upper-echelon fighters.

Many people believed that Hill had picked up a fourth straight win in her last bout, though two of the three judges saw it differently in a controversial split-decision loss to Claudia Gadelha in May. “Overkill” will look to jump back in the win column and continue her climb up the rankings.

Online sportsbook Bovada has released UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs Hill betting odds and has listed Hill as the slight -130 betting favorite with Waterson returning as an EVEN money underdog. This means you would have to wager $130 to profit $100 with a Hill win, while a $100 wager would profit you $100 with a Waterson victory. You can find out all of your potential winnings by using our sports betting calculator.

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UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs Hill Betting Odds

  • Women’s Strawweight - Angela Hill (-130) vs Michelle Waterson (EVEN)
  • Lightweight - Khama Worthy (-140) vs Ottman Azaitar (+110)
  • Women’s Flyweight - Andrea Lee (-325) vs Roxanne Modafferi (+250)
  • Light Heavyweight - Mike Rodriguez (-240) vs Ed Herman (+190)
  • Featherweight - Billy Quarantillo (-260) vs Kyle Nelson (+200)
  • Flyweight - Tyson Nam (-125) vs Matt Schnell (-105)
  • Women’s Bantamweight - Julia Avila (-305) vs Sijara Eubanks (+235)
  • Lightweight - Roosevelt Roberts (-120) vs Matt Frevola (-110)
  • Lightweight - Bobby Green (-265) vs Alan Patrick (+205)
  • Lightweight - Jalin Turner (-325) vs Brok Weaver (+250)
  • Welterweight - Bryan Barberena (-270) vs Anthony Ivy (+210)
  • Women’s Flyweight - Sabina Mazo (-260) vs Justine Kish (+200)

New to betting on the fights? Check out our UFC betting guide to get you in the action. Also, keep an eye on our UFC odds page for the latest up-to-date betting lines.

UFC Vegas 10 Broadcast Information

  • Date/Time: September 12, 5 p.m. ET
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Arena: UFC Apex Performance Center
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+

Michelle Waterson vs Angela Hill Betting Odds

FighterOdds
Michelle WatersonEVEN
Angela Hill-130

Odds as of September 11 at Bovada

Being active seems to be a benefit for Hill (-130). She’s ready to fight for the fifth time in just under a year and a win would make her 4-1 over that span – arguably 5-0 in the eyes of many people. Meanwhile, Waterson (EVEN) climbed to the top of the division but has lost her last two fights to former champions Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Carla Esparza.


Waterson: Need to Knows
  • The former Invicta FC atomweight champion has been a decision queen since joining the UFC, with six of her nine bouts in the Octagon going to the judges’ scorecards.
  • The Karate Hottie, as her name would suggest, has a karate style of striking with a sideways stance that she uses to lengthen her jab and to throw kicks. She also does a good job throwing combinations when she engages with her opponent, typically finishing with a leg kick.
  • An underrated part of her game is her wrestling. She averages 1.68 takedowns per 15 minutes and has landed at least one takedown in seven of her nine UFC bouts. Because of her sideways stance, she is able to avoid a lot of damage by sliding back out of range.
  • Waterson’s last three fights were Karolina Kowalkiewicz (win – unanimous decision), Joanna Jedrzejczyk (loss – unanimous decision) and Carla Esparza (loss – split decision).


Hill: Need to Knows
  • A former Invicta FC strawweight champ, she struggled to find her footing in the early stages of her UFC career. She lost two of her first three in the promotion, went to Invicta FC, won the belt, returned to the UFC and lost five of eight fights. But she has found a groove by winning three of her last four.
  • Hill is an aggressive fighter, averaging 5.76 significant strikes per minute, and she has outstruck eight of her 15 opponents in the UFC. She prefers to keep the fight standing as she has no submission victories and has two losses in that manner.
  • Overkill has good head movement and she uses a lot of feints before letting her hands fly. Many of her strikes are straight, which allows her to land more frequently, but she always wants to go first – when her opponent rushes her, she just covers up and retreats.
  • Hill’s last three fights were Hannah Cifers (win – knockout), Loma Lookboonmee (win – unanimous decision) and Claudia Gadelha (loss – split decision).

Prediction: Michelle Waterson (EVEN) via decision

Ottman Azaitar vs Khama Worthy Betting Odds

FighterOdds
Ottman Azaitar+110
Khama Worthy-140

Odds as of September 11 at Bovada

Returning to the Octagon for the first time since he made his UFC debut just over a year ago is Ottman “Bulldozer” Azaitar (+110), who lays his perfect 12-0 record on the line. Looking to slap a loss on that record is Khama “The Deathstar” Worthy (-140), who finds himself on a lengthy seven-fight winning streak dating back to 2017.


Azaitar: Need to Knows
  • Of Azaitar’s 12 professional wins, nine have been by knockout while two have been submissions and one a decision. He needed just 3:33 to score his first UFC win with a knockout of Teemu Packalen at UFC 242.
  • The Germany native has a lightning-quick and accurate jab. He closes the distance quickly, mixes up his strikes very well by going to the head and body, and has good leg kicks. When opponents look to close the distance, he greets them with powerful hooks. He does his best when he’s countering.
  • Azaitar’s last three fights were Alejandro Martinez (win – knockout), Danijel Kokora (win – knockout) and Teemu Packalen (win – knockout).


Worthy: Need to Knows
  • After back-to-back losses in 2016 into 2017, Worthy has rattled off seven wins in a row with three knockouts, two submissions and two decisions. He has finished both of his UFC opponents, one by knockout and one by submission.
  • The Pennsylvania product is primarily a counter fighter, planting his feet and looking to fire as soon as his opponent engages with him. All of his strikes come with bad intentions and can quickly end the night for his counterpart. He does a really good job throwing multiple strikes at a time like many other counter-strikers.
  • Worthy’s last three opponents were Adam Ward (win – knockout), Devonte Smith (win – knockout) and Luis Pena (win – submission).

Prediction: Ottman Azaitar (+110) via knockout

Roxanne Modafferi vs Andrea Lee Betting Odds

FighterOdds
Roxanne Modafferi+250
Andrea Lee-325

Odds as of September 11 at Bovada

Riding a win-one, lose-one streak over her seven UFC bouts, Roxanne “The Happy Warrior” Modafferi (+250) looks to keep that streak going as she is coming off a decision loss in June. Meanwhile, on the heels of back-to-back split-decision losses, Andrea “KGB” Lee (-325) looks to get back in the win column for the first time in over a year and, with that, avenge a split-decision loss from six years ago.


Modafferi: Need to Knows
  • A pioneer in the women’s MMA scene, Modafferi made her pro debut way back in 2003. To put that in perspective, the UFC signed its first female fighter, Ronda Rousey, in 2012. This will be Modafferi’s 42nd pro fight and she holds a record of 24-17 with 28 bouts going the distance.
  • The Happy Warrior’s best weapon is her wrestling. She averages 1.29 takedowns per 15 minutes and she does a good job working with ground and pound or toward a submission when she’s got the fight on the canvas.
  • She tends to throw straight punches in bunches to try to back her opponent up so she can work into a clinch and eventually bring the fight to the ground.
  • Modafferi’s last three fights were Jennifer Maia (loss – unanimous decision), Maycee Barber (win – unanimous decision) and Lauren Murphy (loss – unanimous decision).


Lee: Need to Knows
  • KGB hit a wall after winning seven straight fights, following up with close split-decision losses to Joanne Calderwood and Lauren Murphy.
  • Lee is a high-tempo fighter, averaging 5.40 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 3.80, and she makes her opponents miss 65 percent of their strike attempts. She has outstruck four of her five UFC opponents.
  • She has a lot of head movement and she’s constantly moving forward and will never let her counterparts land a strike without firing back and landing as well. She has really good leg kicks and always throws stiff straight punches when her opponent tries to close the distance.
  • Lee’s last three fights were Montana De La Rosa (win – unanimous decision), Joanne Calderwood (loss – split decision) and Lauren Murphy (loss – split decision).

Prediction: Andrea Lee (-325) via decision

Ed Herman vs Mike Rodriguez Betting Odds

FighterOdds
Ed Herman+190
Mike Rodriguez-240

Odds as of September 11 at Bovada

For the first time since 2012, Ed “Short Fuse” Herman (+190) enters the Octagon on a winning streak, having won back-to-back fights, both of them in 2019. You may be familiar with his opponent, Mike “Slow” Rodriguez (-240), who was in the cage just three weeks ago, scoring a first-round knockout over Marcin Prachnio.


Herman: Need to Knows
  • A veteran of the cage, Herman made his UFC debut way back in The Ultimate Fighter 3 Finale in 2006. This will be his 25th fight in the Octagon, where he holds a 12-11 record with one no contest.
  • Of Short Fuse’s 25 pro wins, 13 have been by submission and he averages 2.20 takedowns per 15 minutes. However, he hasn’t secured a takedown in any of his last three fights and has just two over his last seven bouts.
  • Herman is a tough guy to bring down from the clinch position as he’s very strong and he continues to work with his back against the cage with short elbows and knees. In striking range, he tends to throw one strike at a time, whether it’s a leg kick, a long jab or a big overhand right.
  • Herman’s last three fights were Gian Villante (loss – split decision), Patrick Cummins (win – knockout) and Khadis Ibragimov (win – unanimous decision).


Rodriguez: Need to Knows
  • After earning a UFC contract in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series, Rodriguez has been struggling to find his footing in the Octagon, going 2-2 with a no contest. However, he’s coming off an impressive knockout win on August 22.
  • All 11 of Slow’s wins have been finishes, nine by knockout and two by submission. Two of his four defeats have also been finishes (one knockout, one submission).
  • Rodriguez is an imposing figure in the Octagon, standing six-foot-four with an 82-inch reach. At distance, he does a good job backing his opponent up with kicks, but when he throws his hands, he tends to be a little wild, lumbering forward throwing punches.
  • Rodriguez’s last three fights were John Allan Arte (no contest), Da Un Jung (loss – knockout) and Marcin Prachnio (win – knockout).

Prediction: Mike Rodriguez (-240) via decision

Billy Quarantillo vs Kyle Nelson Betting Odds

FighterOdds
Billy Quarantillo-260
Kyle Nelson+200

Odds as of September 11 at Bovada

Kicking off the main card is a bout between featherweight prospects. Billy Quarantillo (-260) looks to extend his seven-fight winning streak as he hasn’t lost since 2016 and is 2-0 in the UFC. Meanwhile, Kyle “The Monster” Nelson (+200) collected his first UFC win last September after dropping his first two bouts in the Octagon.


Quarantillo: Need to Knows
  • Quarantillo is a well-rounded fighter with five knockout wins, five submission wins and four decision victories. He has had a high output of 7.43 significant strikes per minute while landing 79 percent of those strikes, most of them coming on the floor.
  • He averages 1.34 takedowns per 15 minutes, landing two in his last fight and one in his UFC debut. On the floor, he’s constantly working toward a submission, while softening his opponent up with strikes to open up the submission as well. He has good conditioning that allows him to continue to grapple for the duration of the bout with no issues.
  • Quarantillo’s last three fights were Kamuela Kirk (win – knockout), Jacob Kilburn (win – submission) and Spike Carlyle (win – unanimous decision).


Nelson: Need to Knows
  • Nelson was stopped in his first two UFC outings, getting knocked out by Diego Ferreira and submitted by Matt Sayles, with that first defeat snapping a six-fight winning streak. However, a first-round knockout win last September may have got the monkey off his back.
  • He is well-rounded with five knockout victories, four submission wins and four decision wins. The Monster does a great job throwing powerful flurries of punches when he closes the distance, winging hooks and looking to put his opponent away. 
  • Nelson’s last three fights were Diego Ferreira (loss – knockout), Matt Sayles (loss – submission) and Marco Polo Reyes (win – knockout).

Prediction: Billy Quarantillo (-260) via decision

UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs Hill Main Card Picks

FighterOdds
Michelle Waterson (Women’s Strawweight)EVEN
Ottman Azaitar (Lightweight)+110
Andrea Lee (Women’s Flyweight)-325
Mike Rodriguez (Light Heavyweight)-240
Billy Quarantillo (Featherweight)-260

Odds as of September 11 at Bovada