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UFC: Weili vs Jedrzejczyk Odds Analysis

Zhang Weili vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk Betting Odds

After the women’s strawweight division had three champions in 2019, Joanna Jedrzejczyk looks to continue the turnover by reclaiming her belt from current champ Zhang “Magnum” Weili. The two are scheduled to compete at UFC 248 on March 7 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Jedrzejczyk held the strawweight belt from 2015 to 2017 and she is a +115 underdog to recapture gold, while Weili, who won the strap last August, is a -145 favorite to defend her crown.

Odds Analysis

It’s not very often that you can find Jedrzejczyk as an underdog in the Octagon, only coming in at plus money three times in her 13-fight UFC career. She has a 2-1 record as a dog, with the lone defeat coming at flyweight when she challenged Valentina Shevchenko for the then-vacant flyweight belt, a bout she lost by unanimous decision.

It may be a bit of a surprise to see Magnum favored over Joanna as she is still somewhat of an unknown to the average UFC fan. This will be only her fifth walk to the Octagon, winning the belt in her fourth fight by knocking out Jessica Andrade in the first minute of their fight in August. That championship fight marked the first time that Weili had been an underdog in the UFC, closing at +130.

Zhang Weili vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk Betting Odds
Zhang Weili-145
Joanna Jedrzejczyk+115

Odds as of January 2 at Bovada

How Will This Fight Play Out?

With Joanna’s background coming from Muay Thai and kickboxing, it should come as no surprise that she will elect to keep this fight standing and exchange hands with Weili. The former champ has landed just four takedowns over her last seven fights and averages just 0.30 takedowns per 15 minutes. Her striking is elite, though, as she averages 6.18 significant strikes per minute, while only absorbing 2.73, and she makes her opponents miss 65 percent of their strike attempts.

As for Magnum, she is a well-rounded, calculated fighter in the Octagon, constantly observing her opponents’ movements before going on the attack. She has outstruck all four of her foes in the UFC by a combined margin of 214-77. Additionally, if she is feeling any threats on the feet, she can drag the fight to the floor; she averages 1.75 takedowns per 15 minutes and landed four takedowns in her first three bouts in the Octagon. On the canvas, she is able to cut through her opponents’ defense well, leading to a strong ground and pound or submission. She has seven wins that have come in that fashion.

Which Fighter Has The Most Betting Value?

Before Weili got her title shot, she was being offered up to other top-ranked strawweights who kept turning her down. One of those fighters was none other than Joanna Jedrzejczyk. She even admitted that it would have been a risky fight as she understands the talent and danger that Magnum brings to a fight.

For this reason, getting the champion at -145 appears to be great value for Weili, who very well could be a titleholder for quite some time. I think that she has such a wide range of skills to get an edge on her opponents that Jedrzejczyk will simply be outmatched over five rounds.