For the second straight week, middleweights will be on the marquee at the UFC Apex Center for UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs Gastelum. Former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker looks to return to a title fight while Kelvin Gastelum eyes consecutive wins for the first time since 2017-18.
Looking at Whittaker vs Gastelum odds, it is the No. 1-ranked Whittaker who is favored over No. 8-ranked Gastelum. We have the full UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs Gastelum odds and predictions below.
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From the middle of 2014 to today, Whittaker has just one blemish on his record, a knockout loss to Israel Adesanya in October 2019. Remove that defeat and “The Reaper” would be on an 11-fight winning streak. He has won two in a row since that loss.
Gastelum has struggled to find his footing recently, going 3-4 over his last seven fights, including a three-fight losing skid, but he had an impressive decision win over Ian Heinisch in mid-February.
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs Gastelum Odds
Online sportsbook Sportsbook has released UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs Gastelum odds, with Whittaker listed as the -265 favorite and Gastelum the +210 underdog. This means you would have to wager $265 to profit $100 on a Whittaker victory, while a $100 bet on a Gastelum win would profit you $210.
Looking at the odds for Whittaker vs Gastelum, our sports betting calculator tells us that Whittaker’s odds of -265 represent an implied win probability of 72.60 percent while Gastelum’s odds of +210 have an implied win probability of 32.26 percent.
The largest favorite in the UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs Gastelum odds comes in the prelim bout between bantamweights Tony Gravely (-350) and Anthony Birchak (+265). The tightest betting line comes in the middleweight tilt between Bartosz Fabinski and Gerald Meerschaert which is set at a pick'em with both men holding -110 odds.
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs Gastelum Odds & Fight Card
- Main Card
- Middleweight – Robert Whittaker (-265) vs Kelvin Gastelum (+210)
- Lightweight – Jeremy Stephens (-125) vs Drakkar Klose (+105)
- Heavyweight – Andrei Arlovski (-120) vs Chase Sherman (+100)
- Middleweight – Abdul Razak Alhassan (-310) vs Jacob Malkoun (+240)
- Lightweight – Luis Pena (-150) vs Alexander Munoz (+125)
- Prelims
- Women’s Flyweight – Tracy Cortez (-325) vs Justine Kish (+250)
- Heavyweight – Alexandr Romanov (-145) vs Juan Espino (+120)
- Women’s Strawweight – Jessica Penne (+225) vs Loopy Godinez (-285)
- Middleweight – Bartosz Fabinski (-110) vs Gerald Meerchaert (-110)
- Women’s Bantamweight – Zarah Fairn dos Santos (+105) vs Josiane Nunes (-125)
- Bantamweight – Tony Gravely (-350) vs Anthony Birchak (+265)
- Lightweight – Dakota Bush (+155) vs Austin Hubbard (-190)
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- Date/Time: April 17, 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
- Arena: UFC Apex
- Where to Watch: ESPN/ESPN+
Robert Whittaker vs Kelvin Gastelum Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | -265 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | +210 |
Following the knockout loss to Adesanya in October 2019, Robert “The Reaper” Whittaker (-265) has knocked off contenders Darren Till and Jared Cannonier in his last two appearances. Meanwhile, Kelvin Gastelum (+210) emerged from his three-fight losing skid by topping Ian Heinisch in February for his first win since May 2018.
- Since dropping back-to-back fights way back in 2013 and 2014 at welterweight, Bobby Knuckles has gone on to win 10 of 11 fights, with nine of those wins coming in the middleweight division. Overall, Whittaker is 22-5 with 14 of his pro wins being stoppages (nine knockouts, five submissions).
- He is a fantastic kickboxer, averaging 4.52 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 3.44, and he makes his opponents miss 60 percent of their strike attempts. Whittaker only averages 0.43 takedowns per 15 minutes while stuffing 84 percent of attempts against, forcing the fight to remain standing.
- The Reaper has a karate-style approach, with a sideways stance and a snapping jab that he works behind effectively. He closes the distance quickly, always throws combinations and is extremely good at setting traps and landing heavy when he has the opportunity.
- At times, Gastelum will get a little excited, attacking hard on a read he thinks he has, and ends up getting hit by a heavy shot. That said, he has outstruck all but three of his 16 UFC opponents. He lost all three bouts in which he didn’t outstrike his counterpart.
- Whittaker’s last three fights were Israel Adesanya (loss – knockout), Darren Till (win – unanimous decision) and Jared Cannonier (win – unanimous decision).
- Gastelum has followed a similar path to Whittaker. Though he won The Ultimate Fighter at middleweight, he began his UFC career at welterweight, stumbled a bit and moved back up to middleweight, where he found some success.
- The 29-year-old holds a 16-6 pro record with 10 of those wins being finishes (six knockouts, four submissions). Only two of his six losses have been stoppages, both submissions.
- The southpaw relied upon his wrestling in his last performance, securing six takedowns en route to a decision victory. For perspective, Gastelum hadn’t scored more than one takedown in a fight since 2015 when he got two against Neil Magny.
- On the feet, he tends to always march forward, willing to eat a few shots so that he can land a combination of his own. He does this with confidence, having never been knocked out in his pro career.
- Gastelum’s last three fights were Darren Till (loss – split decision), Jack Hermansson (loss – submission) and Ian Heinisch (win – unanimous decision).
Prediction: Robert Whittaker (-265) via decision
Jeremy Stephens vs Drakkar Klose Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jeremy Stephens | -125 |
| Drakkar Klose | +105 |
After hitting a wall in the featherweight division, Jeremy “Lil Heathen” Stephens (-125) hopes a jump to lightweight will spark a resurgence in his career. Aiming to give him a rude welcome to the lightweight division is Drakkar Klose (+105), who saw his three-fight winning streak snapped last March.
- A staple in the UFC since UFC 71 in 2007, Stephens is making his 34th walk to the Octagon. He holds a 15-17 record over that span with a no contest as well. Overall, Lil Heathen is 28-18 with 21 of his wins being stoppages (19 knockouts, two submissions). Of his 18 losses, 12 have been decisions.
- Heading into this fight, Stephens is 0-4 with a no contest in his last five. Two of those losses were knockouts; he only has three on his record. He is all-out aggression on the feet, marching forward throwing combinations with his hands and typically finishing with a kick.
- He can be beaten to the punch and when he faces combinations, he tends to just cover up – he needs to be first. At times, he will load up on strikes, which can be countered, but if he lands it could be lights out for his foe.
- Stephens’ last three fights were Yair Rodriguez (no contest), Yair Rodriguez (loss – unanimous decision) and Calvin Kattar (loss – knockout).
- Klose has been a decision machine since entering the Octagon in 2017, with six of his seven UFC bouts going the distance. The lone stoppage brought the famed meme of the commentary team of Joe Rogan, Daniel Cormier and Jon Anik as Klose was knocked out.
- He holds an 11-2 pro record with eight of those fights going the distance. Four of his 11 wins were stoppages, all by knockout. Klose is a well-rounded fighter, averaging 1.56 takedowns per 15 minutes, while on the feet he averages 3.89 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.64.
- Klose is an active fighter, constantly moving forward and swinging from the hip to try to close out the night. His wild striking isn’t always set up, opening areas for his opponent to counter heavily. Additionally, crisp straight punches will stop him in his tracks.
- Klose’s last three fights were Bobby Green (win – unanimous decision), Christos Giagos (win – unanimous decision) and Beneil Dariush (loss – knockout).
Prediction: Jeremy Stephens (-125) via decision
Andrei Arlovski vs Chase Sherman Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Andrei Arlovski | -120 |
| Chase Sherman | +100 |
Chase “The Vanilla Gorilla” Sherman (+100) looks to extend his four-fight winning streak, representing quite a rebound from a three-fight skid that saw him get cut from the UFC in 2018. Looking to put an end to that streak is veteran Andrei “The Pit Bull” Arlovski (-120), who aims to return to the win column following a loss in February.
- It is crazy to think that the UFC heavyweight champion from 2006 is still competing in the promotion. The Pit Bull made his UFC debut in 2000 and this will be his 35th walk to the Octagon.
- Arlovski holds a 30-20 record with two no contests over his career. Only 18 of those fights went the distance, including one of the no contests. Of his 30 wins, 20 have been stoppages with 17 knockouts and three submissions, while 13 of his 20 losses have been finishes (11 knockouts, two submissions).
- The 42-year-old is a striker, averaging just 0.47 takedowns per 15 minutes, and stuffs 78 percent of attempts against. He has good kicks but can be backed against the cage where he strikes defensively. In open space, he tends to dip his head and throw a 1-2 as he rumbles forward.
- Arlovski’s last three fights were Philipe Lins (win – unanimous decision), Tanner Boser (win – unanimous decision) and Tom Aspinall (loss – submission).
- Sherman’s first stint in the UFC didn’t go as planned, losing five of seven fights, which led to him being cut. He has rattled off four wins since, all of them stoppages, including his return to the Octagon last May.
- The Vanilla Gorilla carries a 15-6 record with 14 of the wins being knockouts, while four of the six losses have come in the same manner. He has a high output, averaging 6.02 significant strikes per minute, but absorbs 5.55. Twice in the UFC, he has surpassed 100 significant strikes in a fight.
- Chase is more patient than Arlovski but when he finds opportunities to land, he throws heavy. He mixes up his attack well, throwing several kicks before letting his hands fly. He can be caught when he’s rushed by his opponent, a little slow to react.
- Sherman’s last three fights were Jeremy May (win – knockout), Rashaun Jackson (win – knockout) and Ike Villanueva (win – knockout).
Prediction: Chase Sherman (+100) via decision
Abdul Razak Alhassan vs Jacob Malkoun Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Abdul Razak Alhassan | -310 |
| Jacob Malkoun | +240 |
Two men coming off fast defeats square off in this bout. Jacob “Mamba” Malkoun (+240) had a tough UFC debut, getting knocked out in 18 seconds, while Abdul “Judo Thunder” Razak Alhassan (-310) has dropped two in a row, his most recent being a 30-second knockout.
- Not very often do you see a 100 percent finish rate but that’s what you get with Alhassan. He holds a 10-3 record with his 10 wins all being knockouts. Only one of his three losses is by stoppage.
- Furthermore, only two of his 13 pro fights have gone past the first round and he lost both of those bouts. Judo Thunder is a wild man, closing the distance and then throwing everything he has looking to knock out his opponent.
- However, if he doesn’t get the result he is looking for (an early stoppage), his conditioning has been an issue, with his output dramatically falling off. At that point, he is just looking at one strike at a time and is essentially no longer a threat.
- Alhassan’s last three fights were Niko Price (win – knockout), Mounir Lazzez (loss – unanimous decision) and Khaos Williams (loss – knockout).
- Malkoun entered the Octagon last October at UFC 254 with a perfect 4-0 record and walked away with his first loss, an 18-second knockout defeat.
- Of Mamba’s four pro wins, two are knockouts and two are decisions. He constantly picks away with his left jab before throwing his overhand right looking for the knockout. I think he does his best work in the clinch and on the ground with heavy ground and pound.
- When he’s backed up, he just paws away with his jab and hopes he can circle off the cage but he doesn’t strike fear in his opponents.
- Malkoun’s last three fights were Christophe Van Dijck (win – knockout), Sebastian Temsi (win – unanimous decision) and Phil Hawes (loss – knockout).
Predictions: Abdul Razak Alhassan (-310) via knockout
Luis Pena vs Alexander Munoz Odds & Predictions
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Luis Pena | -150 |
| Alexander Munoz | +125 |
Fresh off the first loss of his career in his UFC debut, Alexander Munoz (+125) looks to get back to his winning ways and get his first triumph in the promotion. As for Luis “Violent Bob Ross” Pena (-150), he is on a win-one, lose-one streak over his last four fights, coming off a submission loss last June.
- Pena brings to the cage an 8-3 record with six of his eight wins being stoppages (two knockouts, four submissions). His submission loss in his last outing was the first stoppage he has suffered.
- At six-foot-three with a 75-inch reach, the southpaw is a handful to deal with both on the feet with his length and on the floor with his submission attempts. He averages 1.37 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts 1.4 submissions per 15 minutes.
- Violent Bob Ross is fast and gets out of danger swiftly, only absorbing 2.74 significant strikes per minute. He has a bad tendency to enter the pocket landing his shot but not circling off, but rather backing straight up, which leaves him vulnerable to counters.
- Pena’s last three fights were Matt Frevola (loss – split decision), Steve Garcia (win – unanimous decision) and Khama Worthy (win – submission).
- Munoz opened his career with three straight stoppage victories, none of which reached the third minute of the bout. His next three wins all came by decision prior to his UFC debut, which was a decision loss.
- Like many Alpha Male team members, he has good wrestling skills, averaging 2.50 takedowns per 15 minutes over his UFC debut and his Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series performance. On the feet, he has big overhand hooks that can do damage if they land but he typically uses them more to close distance and grapple.
- He has good footwork but if his takedowns are stuffed and he can’t figure out a way to get the fight to the ground, you can see his confidence dip and he will get picked apart.
- Munoz’s last three fights were Nick Newell (win – unanimous decision), Troy Lamson (win – unanimous decision) and Nasrat Haqparast (loss – unanimous decision).
Predictions: Luis Pena (-150) via decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs Gastelum Best Bets
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Middleweight – Robert Whittaker | -265 |
| Lightweight – Jeremy Stephens | -125 |
| Heavyweight – Chase Sherman | +100 |
| Middleweight – Abdul Razak Alhassan | -310 |
| Lightweight – Luis Pena | -150 |
