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Las Vegas Expert Picks: Parlays and Premier League Picks

Marcus Ratchford Manchester United EPL English Premier League soccer Benjamin Eckstein Las Vegas Expert Picks

Vegas veteran Benjamin Eckstein, author of America’s Line, brings three decades of experience to make weekly picks in his “Ecks & Bacon” column.

LAS VEGAS — ODDSMOSIS … LET IT SINK IN!!!

Parlays are what bookies LIVE FOR! There are a ton of newbies coming to the world of sports wagering every month, and for those just dipping their toes in the water, a quick word on parlays. DON’T!!!

Parlays are the BIGGEST money-makers for the bookies, and the more teams you parlay, the BETTER it is for the bookmakers.

Parlay Perils

As it turns out, sportsbooks have made a fortune off parlays for years. According to the Nevada Gaming Control Board revenue reports, sportsbooks in Nevada rake a nearly 30 percent hold (profit) on parlays most years.

My man, the Pharmacist, is a good friend here in Vegas, and a pretty astute handicapper, but sadly, he is ADDICTED to parlays. He routinely plays six-, seven- and eight-team parlays, and hits games at an 80 to 90 percent rate. Sounds great, but you can win seven legs of an eight-leg parlay, lose one, and you’re TOAST.

Simple math. I tell him that if he wagers separately on eight games, throwing a Benjamin on each, and wins seven, he would come back to his wife with 590 bones. Put those same eight teams in a parlay, and he comes back home with a loaf of day-old bread.

Every week, we would go over the weekend games on Thursday night, and he would circle like eight, nine or 10. Every week, I told the Pharmacist about a truly SAD parlay bad beat, courtesy of Greg T. from New York. Check this out. Talk to us, Greg.

“It was the 1980s. One of those little bet sheets. You know, 4 out of 4 pays 10/1 etc. As a lark, I went for 10 out of 10, which woulda paid 100/1. Turned the sheet into my man, Mr. Green, with a $20 bill. Woulda been $2,000 if I hit. Big, BIG money back then. Even big money now. Had ZERO expectations. So, I have 9 out of 9 in the bank, heading into the Giants/Skins game. The NYG are 2-point favorites. They have a 3-point lead with ONE minute to go after just scoring. They kick off to Washington. It’s a FREAKIN’ onside kick. NO. NO. NO. NO. NO. The Redskins cover the ball at midfield, kick the field goal, and we go to OT. Of course, Washington wins the game in OT, and I watch 2,000 bucks go right down the drain. Why? Why? Why? Why? I think the Giants coach at the time was the guy before Bill Parcells (that woulda been Ray Perkins). He’s STILL trying to explain why he went for an onside kick.”

Musta told that story to him 40-50 times, but the Pharmacist always had a handful of $20 parlay tickets in his pocket. He actually hit an eight-teamer, ONCE, and NEVER bet a single game again. And he ALWAYS came home with a loaf of day-old bread!!!

Manchester United vs Bournemouth Picks

Over to England, and we’ll look at some weekend action in the Premier League.

LOVE Manchester United to absolutely DESTROY Bournemouth tomorrow, but don’t think I’m gonna lay $600 to win back $100. Since the restart, Man U has been perfect, well, almost perfect, winning three with one draw, and outscoring the opposition 9-2. On the other side of the pitch, Bournemouth has been perfect, PERFECTLY UGLY, losing all three games, scoring only once and letting in seven.

So, this is how we’re gonna divide our chips. Take the Red Devils to win the 1st half & win the 2nd half at a reasonable price. Saw +120 at a few sportsbooks. Also throwin’ a few chips on OVER 3 goals.

Liverpool vs Aston Villa Picks

On Sunday, I WILL lay ANY price on Liverpool to THRASH Aston Villa. Looks like the number is around -300, and that’s CHEAP for the newly crowned champs. Why lay the heavy wood? If you’re not following, Liverpool won the league title, partied HARD, for a week, then hit the road for a game at Manchester City, and were HUMILIATED, eating a 4-0 bagel.

Champions do NOT like HUMILIATION, so that’s one of the reasons why we’re expecting a barrage of goals against Aston Villa. The Villains have not won a game since the restart, and with only 27 points are in the dreaded relegation zone.

Gimme a FULL Benjamin on the Reds to win, and also take that delicious double result prop, Liverpool to win the 1st half & 2nd half at around +180. Another FULL Benjamin.

Happy 4th to the Ecks & Bacon Nation. PLZ be careful & stay safe!!!

Benjamin Eckstein is a nationally syndicated sportswriter/oddsmaker. His column, America’s Line, with the Ecks & Bacon appetizer, has run in the New York Daily News and over 100 other papers since 1988. You can follow him online at www.americasline.com. He is beloved by most, when he picks winners, and detested by others, when he picks the occasional loser. If you wanna piece of Eck, hit his email...ben@americasline.com.