We're back with some early week YRFI/NRFI picks (Yes/No Run First Inning). In this economy, nobody wants to wait a full nine innings for a prop bet to hit. So how about a Y/NRFI bet, where you have your answer in six outs or less?
Here are my two Y/NRFI bets for Tuesday, May 21:
Pick 1: Rockies vs A's: Yes Run First Inning (-115)
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 9:40 pm ET
Oh, sweet Rockies, how I've missed your YRFI bets. It's been a hot minute since I've capped a Rockies' first inning, and usually, the strategy is straightforward.
Colorado has been the most reliable YRFI club in baseball since Opening Day. The Rox's 27-19 YRFI mark is only rivaled by the Dodgers (28-21), and we can bank on a big score again Tuesday.
There is strength on both sides of this bet. For example, the Rockies own a .904 OPS in the first inning vs righties in the last two weeks, the fifth-best mark in baseball during that span. Oakland hasn't been quite as reliable, but the A's can take some solace knowing Rockies starter Cal Quantrill owns a 5.00 ERA in the first inning this year.
No matter how you slice it, the data favors a YRFI bet.
Pick 2: Brewers vs Marlins: No Run First Inning (-130)
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 6:40 pm ET
If you've read my pieces like this, you'll know how much I talk about trends holding sound. Even though the Rockies stink, for example, they're a great YRFI bet.
A similar line of thinking applies to Marlins starter Trevor Rogers. He's been awful this season (1-6, 5.79 ERA), but he's a magic bullet for NRFI bets. The Fish are 8-1 NRFI when Rogers starts this season. Miami's weak offense and Rogers' odds of first-inning dominance make this a winning bet.
On the other end, Brewers starter Robert Gasser has been fantastic. The rookie has allowed just one run in 11 innings and is 2-0 NRFI. We're locked in for this bet.
