NBA Picks & Expert Basketball Predictions

As of writing, the status of Evan Mobley (ankle), Darius Garland (toe), and De'Andre Hunter (thumb) is unclear for Game 3, but with the Cavaliers down 0-2 to Indiana, one would assume that most of that group will attempt to compete in order to try and make a series of this. If all three suit up, that wouldn't affect my resolve in betting on an UNDER for Mitchell's outside shooting, because with a healthy roster around him or not, his efficiency hasn't been great, and that includes his 48-point outburst at Rocket Arena on Tuesday.

Despite connecting on 15-of-30 shots in Game 2, Mitchell only went 1-of-7 from 3-point range less than 48 hours after making just one of his 11 attempts in the series opener. That means he's combined 2-of-17 in this department across two home games at a 11.1-percent clip, and that's night and day from the 16 triples he buried at 45.7 percent in four games versus the Miami Heat in the first round. His prop being set at 3.5 is way too high considering his recent struggles, and for what it's worth, Mitchell only shot 34.7 percent from distance in 36 road outings during the regular season. 

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Aaron Nesmith and Pacers teammate Andrew Nembhard have each been consistently overlooked by oddsmakers with their respective scoring props this postseason. Their props have been much lower than their offensive output would suggest, and that's been beneficiary to bettors who've caught on. I'm certainly not oblivious to these trends, so the minute I saw his total at 12.5, I didn't hesitate. Perhaps this is in part to six players on Indiana averaging better than 11 points in the playoffs but no one higher than 19 points, but that's not enough reason for these numbers being this low, not that I'm complaining. 

Producing 16.3 points on a team-high 56.2-percent shooting, Nesmith has achieved an OVER at 12.5 points in all but Game 1 against the Milwaukee Bucks. He's scored 16 or more points in five of the last six games, as well, and has also gone OVER this number six of the last eight times he's taken on the Cavaliers. For players still alive in the semifinals, Nesmith's shooting percentage actually ranks fifth overall, and the four players ahead of him (Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley, Rudy Gobert, and Isaiah Hartenstein) are all bigs who live in the painted area. 

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Coming off Oklahoma City's 121-119 loss to Denver at the Paycom Center in Game 1, one of the hot topics of discussion was whether or not the team had a certified No. 2 option behind Most Valuable Player favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander who could create scoring opportunities for themself and those around them. We had long thought that Jalen Williams was that guy, especially after he made his first All-Star team of his career, and while he looked the part against the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round, his 16-point showing on 5-of-20 shooting on Monday left a lot to be desired.

Williams bounced back in a way during the Thunder's 149-106 dissection of the Nuggets on Wednesday, shooting 6-of-11 for 17 points in 26 minutes of action while contributing four rebounds and seven assists. Those latter two numbers are what's required for this prop for Game 3, as the 24-year-old wing will need at least 11 combined for an OVER. There have been 16 players averaging more than five boards and five dimes per game in the playoffs, and Williams is one of them at 5.3 apiece with five OVERs in six games for Oklahoma City. 

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Denver's second-unit is basically whatever former league MVP Russell Westbrook can offer on any given night, as the only other bench player totalling double-digit minutes per game is Peyton Watson, and he's only averaging 4.8 points. Now Westbrook has one of the worst plus-minus ratings on the roster at -5, yet the Nuggets are still happily in a split with the best team in the Association heading back to the Mile High City, and Ball Arena is where the 36-year-old point guard has found solace. 

Westbrook is producing 16.5 points and 4.5 rebounds through four playoff home games, and he's gone OVER a combined 17.5 points and dimes in every one of those appearances, including six of seven postseason games overall. His role isn't in jeopardy of diminishing as head coach David Adelman's options are limited, so any on-court carelessness comes with the territory when rolling with someone as sporadic as Westbrook. 

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