The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Denver Nuggets in Game 7 of their best-of-seven series on Sunday afternoon to determine which team will battle the Minnesota Timberwolves in this year's Western Conference finals, and I've conjured up four expert player prop picks for this all-or-nothing matchup at the Paycom Center.
Here are four player props for your consideration, including an OVER on a rebounding prop (13.5) for Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokic (-105) on May 18.
Nikola Jokic OVER 13.5 Rebounds vs. Thunder (-105 at Sportsbook)
Sunday will mark the seventh Game 7 of the Jokic era in the Mile High City, but the first in which he's had to compete on the road. Denver was listed as the visitors in 2020 against the Los Angeles Clippers, but that game emanated from the Bubble in Walt Disney World and wasn't a true road matchup in its purest form. Across those seven occasions, Jokic ended up grabbing 14 or more rebounds four times, and even had 19 during last year's infamous Game 7 collapse against Minnesota.
The three-time league Most Valuable Player has toppled this prop in four of the six games against the Thunder, as well, and he began the series with 22 boards away from Ball Arena in Game 1's surprising 121-119 victory. Jokic's teammate Aaron Gordon has been the Nuggets' second-best rebounder this postseason at 7.3 per game, but he unfortunately injured his hamstring late in Game 6 on Thursday night and may not be 100 percent for the finale. That will put even more pressure on Jokic to be a beast on the glass to combat both Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein who are each contributing over nine per game versus Denver.
Christian Braun UNDER 15.5 Points + Assists vs. Thunder (-112 at Sportsbook)
One of the prevailing storylines of the series has been the inconsistent play of Jokic's teammates, and Christian Braun undoubtedly falls into that category with his up and down numbers which have come on strong as of late, but that wasn't the case early on. Braun scored just three points in Game 2 and followed that up with eight in Game 3, but he's at least found redemption with 17 or more points in two of his last three appearances, although both came within the confines of Ball Arena.
Based primarily on his road struggles, the path best travelled here is taking an UNDER on a combination prop for both points and assists, the latter which Braun is only contributing 2.3 per contest. He's gone UNDER a prop of 15.5 in this market in all three road games, bottoming out at three in Game 2 with just three points and zero dimes. The early 3:30 p.m. start paired with a road environment and the potential for a low-scoring final will do great harm to Braun's box score.
Luguentz Dort OVER 9.5 Points vs. Nuggets (+102 at Sportsbook)
I've been saying this to death and I'll be saying it at least one more time, but there's a noticeable difference between Luguentz Dort's production when he's competing in front of a home crowd as opposed to suiting up in enemy territory. Now his 10 points in just 21 minutes during Game 6 was actually the first time in this series that the Montreal native scored in the double digits on the road, but in his two prior tries, he combined to produce just nine total points on 3-of-16 shooting at a 18.7-percent clip. What Dort has put forth in three home games, however, is an entirely different story, and that should serve the Thunder well in the finale.
He's converting 3.3 triples per game for 12.7 points in 28.2 minutes with three OVERs at 9.5 points. Most of Dort's offense comes from the perimeter anyway, and his efficiency at the Paycom Center against Denver is twice as strong (38.5 percent) as it is on the road (19 percent). The lingering presence of Alex Caruso and a deep second unit has cut into his playing time as of late, but an Oklahoma City backdrop tends to be the fuel he needs offensively, and the trends point to him giving just enough to satisfy both the team and bettors of his props.
Jalen Williams OVER 10.5 Rebounds + Assists vs. Nuggets (+114 at Sportsbook)
Many fingers can be pointed when it comes to why the Thunder failed to close out the Nuggets in Game 6, and perhaps no one deserves more blame than All-Star forward Jalen Williams after he connected on just three of his 16 shot attempts to finish with fewer points (six) than the likes of Hartenstein (eight), Caruso (10), and Cason Wallace (10). He's shooting just 33.7 percent from the field and a miserable and 21.2 percent from behind the arc through these last six games, which is why I'm veering away from his scoring entirely here and focusing on other areas in which he's offered some semblance of value in.
This combination prop covers Williams' rebounds and assists, and he'll need at least 11 in Game 7 to achieve an OVER. Despite only scoring six points in Game 6, the 24-year-old wing did register a game-high 10 assists along with seven rebounds to go well OVER that mark. He's also gone OVER in every home game thus far, even if it's by the slightest of margins with 11 in both Games 1 and 2 and then 13 in Game 5.
