Canada Election Odds & Betting

Mark Carney has won his first-ever election, taking the Liberals from afterthoughts in Canada's 45th federal election, to forming power with a minority government. Meanwhile, the once favored Conservatives failed to win, and leader Pierre Poilievre failed to win a riding he's held since 2004.

Canada Election Odds: Winning Party

Which party will win the Federal Election?
Party	Election Day Odds
Liberal Party	-400
Conservative Party	+275
New Democratic Party	+20000
Green Party of Canada	+30000
People's Party of Canada	+30000
Bloc Québécois	+50000

Canadian Election Odds Winner: Liberal Party of Canada

On election day, the Liberals held commanding -400 odds to win, so it was no surprise they'd win, but that wasn't always the case. Rewind to February 20, a month after Trudeau had said he was stepping down, the odds table was flipped with the Conservatives holding -400 odds to the Liberals +275. Carney flipped those odds within two months as Liberal leader and interim PM.

Using his inherited office as incumbent PM, Carney proved his ability to deal with US President Donald Trump, escaping further tariffs on Trump's "Liberation Day".

His experience as Canada and the UK's former central banker also gave him the credentials to say he could effectively deal with inflation and affordability issues. Time will only tell if that's true, but Canadians bought it and gave him a mandate to try and fix those issues.

Canadian Election Odds: Conservative Party

What's next for the Conservative Party? After last night's loss, the Torries are left with existential questions.

Not only have they failed to form the government, but their leader is now out of the House of Commons. Can Pierre Poilievre continue as leader, or will he resign, and if he does, who will take his place?

The party may have lost, but still had a good night with over 40% of the popular vote and picking up at least 11 seats from their pre-election position. The takeaway isn't that the Conservative brand was unpopular to Canadians, but rather that their leader was.

Canadian Election Odds By Province

On election day, I said the only value on the board was in BC with the Liberals at -125. At the time of writing, the Liberals have won the most seats, being elected in 18 ridings and leading in two more. The Conservatives are elected in 17 and are leading in two.