I had my first losing night of the season on these MLB total base props last night, going 0-2. So, let's get right back on the horse.
For May 9th, I've cooked up two more MLB total base picks, eying a pair of total base overs. Here are my picks today:
Pick 1: Mickey Moniak O1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 9:39 pm ET
Mickey Moniak has not been very good this year, rocking a .198 batting average and -0.7 WAR on the season. But lately, he's been as hot as they come. The Angels outfielder has a .389 average in the last week, with seven hits in his last 18 at-bats. So, let's ride that hot streak.
Moniak also faces Royals started Michael Wacha today, who has a 5.50 ERA on the season and has allowed at least eight hits in his last three starts. Facing a righty like Wacha is great for Moniak, too, as all 16 of his 2024 hits have come against right-handed pitching. He doesn't have a SINGLE hit against lefties.
If you're believing in Moniak's potential tonight, you should probably back the Angels, too. Los Angeles is 14-23 overall, but in games where Moniak gets more than one hit, they're 3-1. The Angels are +100 to win tonight.
Pick 2: Willy Adames O0.5 Total Bases (-190)
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 7:40 pm ET
Sonny Gray has been lights out this year, rocking a 0.9 ERA on the season. But, against these current Brewers, he struggles. As I pointed out in my game picks, Gray has allowed an .893 OPS to current Brewers, and Adames is one of the guys that really gets to him.
The Milwaukee infielder has five hits in 10 career at-bats against Gray, including two extra-base knocks. He also has five walks to just three strikeouts against Gray, showing Adames sees the Cards pitcher pretty well. In Gray's start earlier this season against Milwaukee, Adames had two hits in four at-bats.
I thought about taking Adames' O1.5 total base line at +140, but taking two bases against a guy like Sonny Gray can be a risky strategy. Feel free to take that risk, but I'm taking the more sure-thing at -190.
