I'm trying out a new MLB prop bet this week, looking to the pitcher outs recorded markets. These MLB outs recorded props have become more popular in recent years, and handicapping today's market I can see why.
I feel confident about both of my Monday prop selections, looking at matchups for the Cubs and Blue Jays' starting pitchers. Here are my two MLB outs recorded props for today:
Pick 1: Shota Imanaga Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-114)
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 7:21 pm ET
I get that the Braves are a crazy good lineup, but I'm pretty confident Shota Imanaga is going to have himself a big day on Monday.
For starters, I'm fading Atlanta in general today. As I broke down a few weeks ago, fading teams that travel after playing in Sunday Night Baseball has been one of baseball's most profitable trends, worth 17.5 units of profit over the last three seasons. The Braves lost 4-3 last night in SNB, and now head home to Atlanta! Great fade spot, with the Cubs are +125 on the moneyline.
As well, I just don't think this line is high enough for Imanaga in general. The Cubs ace has been brilliant and efficient this year, rocking a 1.08 ERA and 0.82 WHIP on the season. Imanaga hasn't recorded fewer than 18 outs in each of his last four starts and has beat this 17.5 outs mark in five of his seven outings this year.
Pick 2: Jose Berrios Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (-138)
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 6:36 pm ET
Jose Berrios was untouchable to start the season, but the Jays have lost his last three outings and he's allowed 12 earned runs over those three starts. He's also failed to reach over even 15 outs in two of those three outings.
And, Berrios has to face an Orioles offense that's been one of the best in baseball, hitting a league-leading 60 homers and scoring 198 runs (eighth-most in MLB). These O's have also been great against Berrios, historically, posting a collective .295 average and .917 OPS in 156 total at-bats against the Jays starter.
Opposing starters have failed to reach 18 outs in five of the last seven outings against this Baltimore offense.
