Explications sur les paris NFL par ordinateur

I hit the opener at Caesars immediately as it was a half point shorter than other sportsbooks.

The Chiefs are unusually healthy headed into what is essentially a bye week where Andy Reid is notoriously good after getting extra time to prepare. The Eagles have some injury concerns on the offensive line as center Cam Jurgens missed the NFC Championship game and, his replacement, Landon Dickerson looked to be in pain throughout the game. 

Kansas City has shown time and time again they come through on the big stage and there's no bigger stage than Super Bowl Sunday.

In last year's Super Bowl, Patrick Mahomes picked on 49ers LB Oren Burks once Dre Greenlaw was hurt. Mahomes was 9-for-9 with a touchdown when targeting Burks, who now plays a prominent role for the Eagles with Nakobe Dean hurt. 

Bet placed at 9:53 pm ET on Sunday, January 26th and published on X.com via this tweet. 

If you've been following my work on THE HUDDLE , you know that I've loved this exact same prop the last two weeks because of the return of cornerback Jaylen Watson and bet365 hasn't moved the number.

McDuffie has gone over this number in each of his last eight games and with a competent cornerback opposite him, that ensures he'll be targeted plenty and thus should record at least three tackles. 

Bet placed at 10:41 am ET on Monday, January 27

Patrick Mahomes is peaking at just the right time. Mahomes recorded his highest EPA per dropback of the season against Buffalo and is set to defeat the Eagles once again. 

Philadelphia is facing some significant OL injuries, and with quarterback Jalen Hurts also ailing, won't be able to overcome Mahomes and the Chiefs. 

Check out my Chiefs vs Eagles Super Bowl 59 preview for more. 

Hunt saw 18 touches to Isiah Pacheco's in the AFC Championship game, and I expect that to carry over to the Super Bowl. 

Pacheco is still hampered after breaking his leg in two places earlier this season. I like Andy Reid to rely on the hard charging hunt in Super Bowl 59. 

I’m backing the younger Manning for FanDuel’s Kick of Destiny this Super Bowl.

Eli and Peyton will face off in a field goal kicking contest, and you can win a share of $10,000,000 by picking which bro will win for free. I'm taking Eli. Eli is five years younger than Peyton, will likely have fewer backers (meaning you win more money), and is always clutch on these Super Bowl Sundays. Back the former Giant!

To read the full rules and my breakdown on Kick of Destiny 3: Manning vs Manning, click here.

DeVonta Smith was Eagles' most targeted WR or TE in the red zone this season, with 12 looks and a rushing attempt inside the 20. He's also always a threat from deep, scoring four touchdowns outside the red zone this year. So, at +240 value he's a great Anytime TD option for this big game.

Last time Smith's Eagles faced the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, DeVonta went off. He had seven receptions and nine targets for 100 yards in that big game. While all eyes will be on Barkley and AJ Brown, Smith has the potential to take over this game, once again.

Check out complete Anytime TD odds and my full Super Bowl 59 scorer picks here.

In his rookie season, Xavier Worthy had six touchdowns and was Kansas City's most targeted WR in the red zone. It's clear Andy Reid and the Chiefs love him near the goal line, scheming up weird motion and dump-offs to the speedy multi-tool weapon.

In two playoff games this year, Worthy has been huge for the Chiefs. The young receiver has  seen 13 targets (most on the team) plus three rushing attempts. I'd expect him to be a huge part of KC's game plan in the Super Bowl, and at +155 he's a good bet to score.

Check out complete Anytime TD odds and my full Super Bowl 59 scorer picks here.

Samaje Perine has gone over this number in 14 of his last 15 games, and as we saw at the end of last week's game, Reid likes to save Perine for crucial 3rd down plays out of the backfield. With such a low total, one catch could be all we need to cash this bet. 

Reid trusts Perine and the stage won't be too big for him, as he had some huge plays for the Bengals during their Super Bowl run in 2021. 

Bet made at 12:14 pm ET on Tuesday, January 28

Dallas Goedert has posted more yards than Kelce in three of his last five games. He's averaged more yards per game than Kelce in the last five contests, too.

The defenses are huge for this bet, too. The Chiefs allowed the most tight end yardage in football this season while the Eagles let up the least.

Check out my full breakdown of Travis Kelce Super Bowl props here.

Mahomes isn't putting up big passing yard marks anymore. He's gone UNDER this 251.5 yards in nine of his last 18 starts. He's been held UNDER 251.5 yards in both Chiefs playoff games this year, too.

The Eagles allowed the second-fewest passing yards in football this year, allowing just 189 per contest.

Check out my full breakdown of Mahomes Super Bowl 59 props here.

I've cooked up a three-leg parlay for those betting on the Chiefs to win:

• Chiefs ML (-124)
• Xavier Worthy Anytime TD (+150)
• Xavier Worthy OVER 39.5 Rec Yards (-250)

If you're backing Kansas City like me, I think Worthy is going to be a big reason why they win.

He's used in many different ways in this KC offense and is the perfect weird play guy for Andy Reid to get the ball in the Super Bowl. Worthy has touchdowns in three of his last four games and has gone OVER receiving yards in nine-straight contests.

Check out my full Super bowl 59 SGP breakdown here. 

Hurts has scored 10 touchdowns in his past 13 games. Whether it's on a read-option or the famed "Tush Push" he's always a touchdown scoring threat.

Hurts found the endzone three times in Super Bowl 57 and is a great bet to do so again. 

Philadelphia needs to keep the Kansas City defense off balance to have any hope of winning Super Bowl 59. 

Expect to see Kellen Moore put the ball in Hurts' hands early and often. Hurts completed 27 passes in Super Bowl 57 and will need to throw the ball more than usual to win the Lombardi Trophy. 

Check out all my Jalen Hurts Super Bowl 59 prop bets. 

Despite tallying the lowest passing attempts of his career, Hurts has surpassed 200 yards in nine of his 17 starts.

This is a safe Super Bowl 59 player prop to aid your bankroll. 

If you’re going to bet on the Eagles to win, I think it’ll be the offense that gets them there. So, I’m putting together two touchdown picks alongside this Eagles ML bet to maximize value:

Need I say much about Saquon? He scored 15 touchdowns in 16 regular season games and has five scores in three playoff contests.

Goedert is the real value pick here, but I think he can score against Philly as he faces a Chiefs defense that allowed the most yards in football to tight ends this year. He's scored three touchdowns in his last eight games, as well.

Think is a nice number as a lot of sportsbooks are offering this prop at a sub +300 price.

Yes, Pacheco has been getting less snaps lately, but he's still their best option when they need a hard-nosed run around the goal line. In a game with a high score expected (Total: 49), getting +330 odds on the goal line back for one of the teams is a good bet. 

Bet placed at 8:39 pm ET on Sunday, February 2

Let's go big on the touchdowns for Super Bowl 59, wrapping up these three picks for a +1470 TD parlay:

Saquon is pretty explanatory, as he scored 15 touchdowns in 16 games this year (and five more in the playoffs).

Worthy has the most targets on the chiefs in the playoffs (13 in two games) and three TDs in his last four starts.

Goedert is the longest line of this parlay at +320, but the chiefs had the worst tight end defense in football this year so he can certainly find the end zone, too.

Check out all my touchdown picks and more on this TD parlay here.

As I've covered repeatedly this week, Hurts is going to need to put the ball in the air early and often in order to raise the Lombardi Trophy, so I love him to have at least 200+ passing yards. 

Additionally, with two elite defenses on the field, I like Super Bowl 59 to be far more of a defensive showdown than Super Bowl 57 was. I like the UNDER 48.5. 

At the same time, it's tough to be against Patrick Mahomes, so I'm backing the Chiefs on the moneyline. 

Kansas City's defense held opposing running backs to an NFL-low 22.1 yards per game this season. 

Saquon has been an afterthought in the Eagles passing game. Don't expect him to be overly involved against the stingy Chiefs in the SB. 

Kansas City finished this season with their best rushing defense in years. Crucially the Chiefs gave up very few long rushes, ranking second in level yards per carry and open-field yards be carry this season. 

KC shut down Christian McCaffrey last year, and I think Spags finds the formula to contain Saquon in Super Bowl 59. 

Check out my best Saquon Barkley Super Bowl 59 props for more ways to profit.