March Madness South Region Odds: After Upset of Houston, Duke Now Final Four Favorite

With one awkward twist of Jamal Shead’s ankle, the entire complexion of the NCAA tournament’s South Region changed.

With its best player watching from the sideline, No. 1 seed Houston’s dream of a first national championship ended Friday night in a 54-51 upset to No. 4 seed Duke, which had closed as a 4.5-point underdog. It was the second upset in as many games in Dallas, where No. 2 seed Marquette was bounced 67-58 by No. 11 seed North Carolina State, which closed as a 7.5-point underdog and won its eighth straight game.

The result is a South Regional final on Sunday that nobody saw coming: Duke against North Carolina State, two ancient ACC rivals who will play for the third time since March 4, and split the earlier contests. The Blue Devils opened as a 6-point favorite.

2024 March Madness South Region Odds

Odds as of March 30

South Region Betting Favorite: Duke

Only overall No. 1 seed Connecticut entered the NCAA tournament with more favorable odds of reaching the Final Four than South Region top seed Houston, which entered the tournament with a 30-4 mark and as the best defensive team in the nation, allowing opponents an average of just 57 points per game.

But all that changed when Shead severely sprained his ankle midway through the first half, landing awkwardly after a layup attempt. Duke’s defense took control from there, holding the Cougars to just two points over four minutes, and getting key buckets from Jeremy Roach and Kyle Filipowski to put the game away down the stretch.

Sweet ➡️ Elite 🕺😈🤠 pic.twitter.com/ySOohdoCKX

— Duke Men’s Basketball (@DukeMBB) March 30, 2024

The Blue Devils have covered in all three of their games so far in the NCAA tournament. Roach has been the catalyst, scoring double-figures in every contest, while Jared McClain (30 against James Madison in the second round) and Filipowski (16 points and nine boards against Houston in the Sweet 16) give the Blue Devils well-rounded offensive punch.

Other March Madness South Region Contenders

And then there’s N.C. State, which needed to win the ACC tournament just to get into the Big Dance, and have parlayed that into a completely unforeseen NCAA tournament run. The Wolfpack have been underdogs in all but two contests during their eight-game winning streak, winning as a +500 moneyline dog to Duke in the ACC quarters, as a +405 dog to North Carolina in the ACC final, and as a +260 dog to Marquette on Friday.

N.C, State is playing loose and confidently, and it’s showing on the court. The Wolfpack have an excellent inside-outside game, with (very) big man DJ Burns Jr. manning the paint and guards DJ Horne and Michael O’Connell giving opponents fits from the outside. Burns had 27 against Duke in a 79-64 regular-season loss, while Horne scored 18 in a 74-69 victory over the Blue Devils in the ACC quarterfinals.

March Madness South Region Historical Betting Records and Information

Seven times in the past 13 seasons, the No. 1 seed has claimed the South Region title and advanced to the Final Four. But the region has also produced two of the biggest upstarts in NCAA tournament history—Loyola of Chicago and VCU, two of just four teams to ever reach the national semifinals as No. 11 seeds. Here’s a look at March Madness South Region history since the 2010 season: