It's impossible to halt the Black Knights' ground attack, led by QB Bryson Daily, that is averaging a nation-leading 308.9 YPG. Against Tulane, Army hung a whopping 335 total rushing yards, while attempting just two passes (both of which he completed for 17 yards, BTW). While Navy can expect Daily to run the ball and adjust its game plan -- it doesn't matter. Daily can run through a sea of people and still gain an impressive amount of yardage.
See my full Navy vs Army preview for more picks and analysis.
Bryson Daily has nearly double to amount of rushing yards (1,480) than he does passing yards (877). He has obliterated this line in six straight performances, the lowest recording in that span being 136 yards vs UAB. The Texas native even managed 145 rushing yards against Notre Dame's top 10 defense. According to Outlier, the senior is averaging 145.3 YPG, a bit jump from what is line is set at ahead of the service academy battle.
See my full Navy vs Army preview for more picks and analysis.
The season’s first bowl game pits the 6-6 Broncos against the 5-7 Jaguars in the vacation paradise of Montgomery, Ala. South Alabama has won four of its last six, but its starting quarterback is beat up and its top running back is in the transfer portal. We’ll take Western Michigan, out of the tougher MAC, and the points.
Western Michigan sits outside the top 100 in scoring and total defense. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have averaged a noble 34.6 points across their last five outings. The Broncos haven't covered an underdog spread since Week 1, which was a whopping 24-points. Western Michigan's defense is just too weak to rely on.
Memphis won its final two regular season games, upsetting 13-point favorite Tulane in the finale. West Virginia lost two of its last three, fired coach Neal Brown, and has seen a steady progression of players head into the transfer portal—standout linebacker Josiah Trotter among them. Give us the Tigers, who relish beating power-conference foes.
Two conference losses kept No. 25 Memphis out from competing in the AAC Championship. Now, the Tigers have to settle for the Frisco Bowl. After winning three-straight bowl games, Ryan Silverfield just add another postseason victory under his belt for Memphis.
West Virginia will be incomplete, already losing several players to the transfer portal like TE Will Dixon. At 4.5-points, I have no issues jumping on the Tigers here.
Neither team finished the season very well—James Madison lost a pair of close games, while WKU has dropped three of four. Even worse for the Hilltoppers, starting quarterback T.J.. Finley has entered the transfer portal. Even with Finley, Western has beaten the spread in just one game since mid-October, nudging us toward the Dukes to cover in Boca.
James Madison quietly averages 35.7 PPG, a mark elite enough to be 11th best in college football. Just as impressive, the Dukes' defense is coughing up just 22.1 PPG. I think this is a better James Madison program than its 8-4 SU and 6-6 ATS record suggests. I like the point total here as the Dukes cashed the UNDER eight times this year while the Hilltoppers did so seven times.
The Rebels will be without coach Barry Odom, who left for Purdue. But interim Del Alexander retains the core of a team that twice appeared in the AP Top 25 this season, and reached the Mountain West championship game. There’s also the dynamic presence of UNLV quarter Hajj-Malik Williams, who will be tough for Cal to contain.
Sam Houston has won three of its last four. Still, the Bearkats lost coach K.C. Keeler to Temple and they have seen nearly a dozen players enter the transfer portal—including its top two running backs, a starting linebacker, and three starters in the secondary. The Eagles meanwhile have won and covered three of their last four.
Jacksonville State completed a dream season with a 52-12 thumping of Western Kentucky in the Conference USA title game, but now the Gamecocks are in real danger of losing coach Rich Rodriguez to West Virginia. Meanwhile, Ohio has been rock steady, winning six straight outright and against the spread heading to Orlando.
The difference in strength of schedule between the two teams is stark—Florida’s is fifth, according to the Sagarin ratings, while Tulane’s is 76th. Florida’s turnaround has helped make the Gators one of the more reliable spread bets this season, with covers in eight of their last nine games. The Green Wave has lost to both power-conference opponents it’s played this season, 34-27 to Kansas State (covering as a 9-point underdog) and 34-19 to Oklahoma (failing to cover as a 12.5-point underdog).
Tulane has gone OVER in five of its last eight games, but that’s with a veteran starting quarterback who has a great TD-to-INT ratio and a high completion percentage. It’s going to be a different ballgame if Mensah doesn’t play. Florida meanwhile has gone UNDER in three straight behind an offense that grinds out yards and eats up the clock, exactly what we expect to see in the Gasparilla Bowl.
Guess what? Another QB entering the transfer portal, a pretty good one, Tulane's Darian Mensah. After compiling a 9-2 record, the Green Wave turned into a little puddle, losing to Memphis 34-24 and Army 35-14. The Gators have turned around a lousy season with three straight wins and a W here in Tampa should save Billy Napier's job. Florida obviously has home state advantage and has covered seven of last nine. Gator chomp but just a few pennies.
Since the loss to Northern Illinois, Notre Dame has won 10 straight all by blowout margins, and covered its last seven. Indiana’s inability to pass defend in its 38-15 loss at Ohio State will loom large again in this one, especially when the Golden Domers take away the run and start coming after Hoosiers quarterback Kurtis Rourke.
The Irish wrapped up the regular season covering in eight-straight meetings. Following that Week 2 upset, Notre Dame is a whole different team. Three wins on neutral fields, covering six-straight spreads of 14-points or more, and leading the country with a +26.3 win margin.
Indiana is the best rush defense in the nation. But, those numbers to be inflated since the Hoosiers haven't met a team that ranks anywhere near the top 25 in rushing. Indiana simply doesn't have the experience to quickly shut down the mobility of Leonard and the efforts of RB Jeremiyah Love. Plus, playing in front of Touchdown Jesus gives the Irish even more of an edge.
See my full Indiana vs Notre Dame preview for a deep dive and more picks!
I like this prop because whether Indiana slows his run game or his passing game, he can adjust to lean on offensive area that has an opening.
According to Outlier, Leonard is averaging 260.6 YPG, a bit jump from what is line is set at ahead of the CFP's first round.
See my full Indiana vs Notre Dame preview for a deep dive and more picks!
Both teams are 11-1. So why is Notre Dame -7.5? Home field and more talent. Indiana's 11-1 was built on the back of cupcakes like Purdue. The Hoosiers SMOKED the Boilermakers in the finale, 66-0. The week before, against an actual football team, Ohio State, they lost 38-15. The Buckeyes remind me of the Fighting Irish. Both teams score like crazy and both are very tough on the defensive side. I'm not Irish but I will do the River Dance all the way to the bank.
Penn State is a solid team with a punishing run game. But, the Nittany Lions haven’t seen anything like SMU’s Kevin Jennings. He can run, throw, and do both at the same time. Jennings helped MSU come back from down 21-7 to Clemson to secure this spot in the playoff. He's just as capable of doing it again against Penn State — or at least enough to keep this game close.
Check out a full SMU vs Penn State preview here.
Penn State tight end Tyler Warren is always a threat, scoring 10 touchdowns on the season. He can score receiving or rushing, too.
With Penn State expected to win this game, they should have plenty of opportunity to score, and Warren is arguably the biggest scoring threat on the field whenever the Nittany Lions are near the goal line.
Check out a full SMU vs Penn State preview here.
Playing in the drop-back Big 10, Penn State hasn’t seen anything like Jennings, a dual-threat quarterback who ran and passed his way to 310 yards and four total TDs against Clemson. Jennings has rushed for five touchdowns this season, including two in his past three games, and will be the focal point of the Mustangs’ attack in State College.
Check out a full SMU vs Penn State preview here.
| Últimos 100 jogos | Para vencer | Contra o Spread | Total de pontos |
|---|---|---|---|
| $ Unidades (abertura) | $69 | $652 | -$488 |
| $ Unidades (fechamento) | -$267 | -$632 | $314 |
| Resultados (abertura) | 64 - 33 - 1 | 56 - 43 - 1 | 50 - 50 |
| Registro (fechamento) | 64 - 33 - 1 | 48 - 50 - 2 | 53 - 45 - 2 |
Computer picks no futebol americano universitário: como funciona e como usar
A NFL impressiona pelo gigantismo, mas o futebol americano universitário não fica muito atrás. As partidas da NCAA acontecem em estádios até maiores que os da liga profissional, recebem extensa cobertura na televisão e, claro, mobilizam milhares de torcedores nas casas de apostas da internet. Fazer um palpite no futebol americano da NCAA pode render um bom lucro, mas você nem sempre conhece a fundo as equipes envolvidas. Se esse é seu caso, vale a pena conferir os computer picks do OddsShark, um prognóstico baseado no processamento dos dados referentes ao retrospecto da competição.
Para entender os dados
A tabela acima é calculada com base nos últimos cem jogos do campeonato de futebol americano universitário da NCAA. A partir desses picks, você pode aumentar a precisão de seus palpites, aproveitando os dados oferecidos pelo computador do OddsShark para melhorar suas chances. Mas antes de começar a incluir os computer picks na sua rotina de apostas, recomendamos que você entenda o que cada termo significa e saiba como fazer a leitura dos dados.
$ unidades de abertura/fechamento
A tabela de computer picks começa com duas linhas que representam os lucros ou perdas de um apostador que tenha colocado R$ 100 em cada uma das últimas cem previsões de resultados geradas pelo computador. Em primeiro lugar vem o valor referente às linhas de abertura; em seguida, o montante referente às linhas de fechamento.
A coluna “Para ganhar” indica os ganhos baseados em apostas por cotas ou apostas do tipo moneyline – ou seja, apostas em que você vence caso acertar o vencedor, sem contar as variáveis, como diferença de pontos, por exemplo. Já a coluna “ATS” significa against the spread, ou seja, “contra o spread”. Ela representa as apostas certeiras que cobriram o spread previsto para o uma partida. (Se você nunca apostou no point spread, também conhecido como vantagem de pontos, vale conhecer mais sobre esse tipo de palpite.)
Por fim, “Total O/U” indica os ganhos obtidos com picks do tipo “over/under” ou “mais ou menos”, que são as apostas referentes ao total de pontos. Esse tipo de aposta é bastante interessante para os casos em que você estiver em dúvida sobre quem será o vencedor e prefere tentar lucrar sem adivinhar quem vencerá. Ao invés disso, você coloca suas fichas no total de pontos que serão anotados em uma partida – levando em conta, por exemplo, as condições climáticas e o estilo de jogo de cada equipe envolvida.
Retrospectos de abertura e fechamento
As duas linhas no pé da tabela listam os resultados dos últimos cem jogos contabilizados nos computer picks, tanto na abertura como no fechamento. A sequência é a seguinte: vitórias em primeiro, derrotas em segundo e empates em terceiro. Na coluna “To Win”, você encontra os resultados das apostas do tipo moneyline. “ATS” indicam os resultados dos picks contra o spread. Finalmente, a coluna “Total O/S” mostra os resultados dos palpites over/under, no total de pontos.
Por que consultar os computer picks?
Nem mesmo os maiores especialistas no futebol americano universitário são capazes de acompanhar o dia-a-dia de todas as equipes envolvidas nas competições da NCAA. São tantas divisões diferentes que a maioria dos torcedores só conhece mesmo as potências como Alabama, Notre Dame, LSU e Penn State. Antes de cravar um palpite, recomenda-se que você tenha todas as informações necessárias para fazer um prognóstico coerente. Os computer picks são um recurso muito valioso nesse sentido.
Por levar em conta um enorme volume de dados a respeito das partidas, o computador apresenta uma projeção muito mais completa do que pode acontecer em determinado jogo. E não é só isso: a máquina desconsidera fatores subjetivos que podem atrapalhar sua avaliação, como a preferência por uma universidade específica e impressões pessoais que podem se provar equivocadas. Trata-se de pura estatística: dados compilados e processados para resolver possíveis dúvidas e mapear o panorama do jogo.
Usando os computer picks no futebol americano da NCAA
Na maioria dos casos, as apostas preferidas dos torcedores de futebol americano são no vencedor de uma determinada partida. Como somos apaixonados pelo esporte, é apenas natural que a gente queira acompanhar um jogo vibrando pelo time que escolhemos – e, se possível, lucrando com o resultado final. Mas, como você já deve saber, as apostas esportivas vão muito além disso: há diversos outros tipos de apostas, muito mais elaborados e com ótimas oportunidades para você lucrar.
Os computer picks podem indicar alternativas promissoras para você investir. Ao invés de simplesmente eleger a Universidade de Michigan como a ganhadora no duelo com USC, você pode, por exemplo, fazer uma aposta do tipo over/under, colocando suas fichas no total de pontos a serem anotados. Ou seja: os dados do computador não só o ajudam a fazer palpites mais sólidos como também revelam diferentes alternativas para você se divertir. A máquina é sua aliada, cabe a você descobrir como aproveitar todos os recursos que ela oferece.
