BCS Championship Betting Preview

This college football season ends with a real bang as 12-1 Alabama shoots for back-to-back titles against 12-0 Notre Dame in the BCS national championship game Monday, Jan. 7 at Sun Life Stadium in suburban Miami (8:30 pm ET, ESPN).

For the early BCS title game odds most books were listing the Crimson Tide, champions of the Southeastern Conference, as nine-point favorites over the Irish, who haven't played for all the marbles in over 20 years.

The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the past 5 BCS title games, which have all been won by the SEC. Alabama won and covered 4 straight bowl games, including last year’s championship game, while Notre Dame is a dreadful 2-8 ATS in their past 10 bowl games.

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View Alabama vs Notre Dame Odds and Stats.

BCS Betting Line: Oddsmakers at 5Dimes opened the Fighting Irish as 8.5-point underdogs in the matchup and it was bet quickly up to -10 by mid-December. Meanwhile the betting total was hovering around 41.5 at Bovada.

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Alabama Bowl History


Year Bowl Team1 Score Team2 Score Team2Line ATS win
1996 Outback Bowl Alabama 17 Michigan 14 1 ALAB
1998 Music City Bowl Virginia Tech 38 Alabama 7 5 VTECH
1999 Orange Bowl Michigan 35 Alabama 34 -2.5 MICH
2001 Independence Bowl Alabama 14 Iowa State 13 6.5 IOWAST
2004 Music City Bowl Minnesota 20 Alabama 16 -3 MINN
2005 Cotton Bowl Alabama 13 Texas Tech 10 -3 ALAB
2006 Independence Bowl Oklahoma State 34 Alabama 31 2 OKLAST
2007 Independence Bowl Colorado 24 Alabama 30 -4.5 ALAB
2008 Sugar Bowl Utah 31 Alabama 17 -9.5 UTAH
2009 BCS Championship Game Texas 21 Alabama 37 -4 ALAB
2010 Capital One Bowl Michigan State 7 Alabama 49 -8 ALAB
2011 BCS Championship Game Alabama 21 LSU 0 2.5 ALAB

Notre Dame Bowl History


Year Bowl Team1 Score Team2 Score Team2Line ATS win
1995 Orange Bowl Florida State 31 Notre Dame 26 10 NOTRD
1997 Independence Bowl Notre Dame 9 LSU 27 -7 LSU
1998 Gator Bowl Georgia Tech 35 Notre Dame 28 2.5 GATECH
2000 Fiesta Bowl Notre Dame 9 Oregon State 41 -3 OREGST
2002 Gator Bowl North Carolina State 28 Notre Dame 6 2 N.C.ST
2004 Insight Bowl Oregon State 38 Notre Dame 21 3 OREGST
2005 Fiesta Bowl Notre Dame 20 Ohio State 34 -4.5 OHIOST
2006 Sugar Bowl Notre Dame 14 LSU 41 -8.5 LSU
2008 Hawaii Bowl Notre Dame 49 Hawaii 21 -2.5 NOTRD
2010 Sun Bowl Notre Dame 33 Miami 17 -2.5 NOTRD
2011 Champs Sports Bowl Notre Dame 14 Florida State 18 -3 FLAST

How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Notre Dame's No. 76-ranked offense (26.8 PPG) against a Crimson Tide defense that ranks No. 2 at 10.7 PPG. The Fighting Irish passing attack has averaged 218.8 yards per game, more than the Crimson Tide give up through the air (166.2 YPG on average).

Defensively, the Crimson Tide feature the league's No. 3-rated road run defense, allowing 78.4 yards per game. Notre Dame, meanwhile, ranks No. 39 in rushing offense at home.

Alabama was a 32-28 winner in their most recent outing on the road against Georgia. They failed to cover the 9-point spread as favorites, while the total score (60) made winners of OVER bettors. Eddie Lacy ran through the Georgia defense for 181 yards in Alabama's last game, handing the Bulldogs a 32-28 setback on Saturday at Georgia Dome.

Last time out for Notre Dame, they were a 22-13 winner as they battled Southern Cal on the road. Notre Dame covered in the match as a 4.5-point favorite, while 35 combined points moved the game UNDER for totals bettors. Theo Riddick went over the 100-yard mark (146) in his team's latest effort as Notre Dame defeated Southern Cal by a score of 22-13 on Saturday.

Alabama Crimson Tide Trends:
When playing in January are 5-2
When playing on grass are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 10-0
When favored on the road are 9-1

Notre Dame Fighting Irish Trends:
When playing in January are 0-6
When playing on grass are 10-0
After outgaining opponent are 10-0
When an underdog at home are 1-9

A few Crimson Tide at Fighting Irish trends to consider:
Alabama is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games
Alabama is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Notre Dame is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Notre Dame's last 11 games

 

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