NFL Prop Picks Week 16

Tomorrow

Matthew Stafford O1.5 Passing TDs

NFL | LAR @ SEA 8:15 PM ET

+100

Full Analysis

Saturday

Dallas Goedert Anytime TD

NFL | PHI @ WAS 5:00 PM ET

+180

Full Analysis

Romeo Doubs O34.5 Rec Yards

NFL | GB @ CHI 8:20 PM ET

-115

Full Analysis

Sunday

Xavier Legette O19.5 Receiving Yards

NFL | TB @ CAR 1:00 PM ET

-114

Full Analysis

Quinshon Judkins Anytime TD

NFL | BUF @ CLE 1:00 PM ET

-115

Full Analysis

Cam Little O7.5 Kicking Points

NFL | JAX @ DEN 4:05 PM ET

-119

Full Analysis

Geno Smith U196.5 Passing Yards

NFL | LV @ HOU 4:25 PM ET

-114

Full Analysis

David Montgomery 40+ Rushing Yards

NFL | PIT @ DET 4:25 PM ET

+100

Full Analysis

Lions Total O23.5

NFL | PIT @ DET 4:25 PM ET

-400

Full Analysis

Keaton Mitchell O22.5 Rushing Yards

NFL | NE @ BAL 8:20 PM ET

-113

Full Analysis

Thursday Night Football Prop Picks

Matthew Stafford OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+100)

Stafford has thrown for at least two touchdowns in eight straight games and in all but two games this season, so I love getting +100 for this prop. The potential absence of wide receiver Davante Adams, who aggravated a hamstring injury against the Lions, is likely part of why the odds are where they are because Adams has hauled in 14 touchdowns this season. However, Puka Nacua and Colby Parkinson should be able to suit up. Those two have combined for 12 touchdown receptions, and other skill position players have been involved, too. - Andrew Dixon

Saturday Football Prop Picks

Dallas Goedert Anytime Touchdown (+180)

Goedert is fresh off a two-touchdown game, and he should've had a third if not for a drop. Those scores marked the tight end's first since Week 8, and he's poised to find the end zone again Saturday. The 30-year-old has scored in four of his last five games against bottom 10 defenses in scores allowed, per Outlier, and the Commanders rank squarely in that group. The Commanders have given up the second-most scores to the position (nine). The only team that's allowed more is the Bengals, with 15. - Andrew Dixon

Romeo Doubs O34.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Romeo Doubs has exceeded 34.5 receiving yards in five of his last six road games while averaging 47 yards a night. In the four weeks before Christian Watson returned to the field, Doubs averaged 8 targets a night. I expect him to see similar volume against the Bears with Watson once again out of the lineup. Doubs is Green Bay's most trusted pass-catcher and will exploit a Bears defense giving up 147 yards per game to the position. -Nick Holz

Sunday Football Prop Picks

Xavier Legette OVER 19.5 Receiving Yards

Legette has cleared 19.5 receiving yards in three of his last four games, and he's cleared that total in six contests overall this year. The Buccaneers have given up the 12th-most receiving yards to wideouts this year, so there should be enough space for Legette to pick up 20 or more yards Sunday. It helps that quarterback Bryce Youn has played well against Tampa Bay in their last two matchups, throwing for three touchdowns, zero interceptions, and an average of 250.5 yards in those games. - Andrew Dixon

Quinshon Judkins Anytime TD (-110)

The Bills have given up a ton of touchdowns to running backs. No one has allowed more than the 18 rushing scores that Buffalo has given up, and they've surrendered another pair through the air, too. Judkins has been bottled up in the last two games, rushing for just 47 yards on 26 carries, but this is a great opportunity to bounce back, and for him to score his first touchdown since Week 12. - Andrew Dixon

Cam Little OVER 7.5 Kicking Points (-119)

Cam Little has exceeded 7.5 kicking points in five straight games vs bottom-10 defenses for kicking points against while averaging 11 kicking points per game. He'll be a certified weapon in the Mile High air where Brandon McManus knocked through four field goals and two extra points last week. With the total moving up a point, I love Little to hit his over 7.5 kicking points. -Nick Holz

Geno Smith UNDER 196.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Smith hasn't cleared 200 yards since playing the Browns several weeks ago. His consecutive games with fewer than 175 passing yards, combined with the fact that he's facing the league's No. 1 defense in yards and points allowed per game in the Texans, have me confident that the veteran signal-caller will go under his passing total. - Andrew Dixon

David Montgomery 40+ Rushing Yards (+100)

Montgomery should be a big part of the game plan for this one with how poorly the Steelers have defended the run (allowed 135.4 rushing YPG on the road). The 28-year-old has rushed for at least 40 yards in six games, and only one of those outings came in a loss. With me expecting the Lions to lean on their run game en route to a win, that should mean that Montgomery will see the necessary opportunities. The veteran has flashed the ability to take over games, too, tallying 151 rushing yards against the Steelers' division rival Ravens. - Andrew Dixon

Lions Total OVER 23.5 (-400)

I like the Lions to score over 23.5 points against the Steelers. The value isn't terribly exciting, but Detroit has scored at least 24 points in every home game this season, and in all but three contests overall. All three of those games were outright losses, too. - Andrew Dixon

Keaton Mitchell O22.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

This line is far too low for such an explosive back. Keaton Mitchell has rushed for at least 66 yards in back-to-back games and has seen six plus carries in each contest. He's also posted long runs of 22 and 55 yards in those games, so Mitchell's capable of eating up this line with just one burst. I like Mitchell to go to work against a Patriots defense that's 30th in rushing EPA in the last five weeks. -Nick Holz

There's no better time to plunge into the world of NFL prop bets. Unlike traditional wagers like the point spread and moneyline, NFL prop bets allow you to focus on player performances and specific game scenarios, offering a ton of opportunities for bettors to capitalize on their intimate knowledge of the game. Whether you're betting on a quarterback's passing yards, a running back to score a touchdown, or a wide receiver's receptions, player props provide endless ways to enhance your betting experience.

With the 2025 NFL season in full swing, Odds Shark's NFL experts Nick Holz and Andrew Dixon will break down their best NFL prop bets weekly.

Check out all of our best NFL prop bets throughout the season and all the way to the Super Bowl!