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Monday Night Odds: Bears vs 49ers

Alex Smith is out of the Monday Nighter against the Chicago Bears, resulting in a 3-point swing in the point spread this morning after the number had climbed to -7 on weekend reports that he would play.

The Bears visit the San Francisco 49ers this Monday night at Candlestick Park and, after opening as 4.5 point dogs, have seen the number climb to 6.5 at most shops.

Both Smith and Jay Cutler left their respective games Sunday with concussions and their statuses for Monday night are unknown. Cutler is out for the Bears, while backup Jason Campbell is in.

Both teams have been moneymakers on Monday Night with the 49ers 7-1-1 ATS in their past nine games and the Bears 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 MNF showings. [ Bet the 49ers as -7.5 point favorites at Bovada and earn a 100% bonus - total was sitting at 36.5 ]

But the Bears gave struggled here in the Bay, losing seven straight and never covering the spread in that time.

Chicago is 6-1 SU and 4-2-1 ATS over its last seven games while the 49ers are 4-1-1 SU and 3-3 ATS over their last six games. San Francisco was involved in the first tie since 2008 last week against the Rams.

View Chicago vs San Francisco Odds and Stats.

Power Rankings / Prediction:
The 49ers - Bears odds would favor the 49ers if the lines were set according to power ranks. San Francisco is rated No. 2 in our latest OddsShark poll, while the Bears sit at No. 4. Math models based on recent stats and predictive formulas point to a 32-29 win for the Bears.

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Monday Night Football preview:

For the second week in a row, the Chicago Bears will be a part of one of the most significant games on the NFL betting line. This time, in Week 11, they’ll hit the road against the San Francisco 49ers in a Monday Night Football matchup. Get odds for the clash of defensive juggernauts today.

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Just last week the Bears took the national spotlight in the primetime Sunday night game against the Houston Texans, and they came up short. The loss not only stunted their lead in the NFC North division, but called into question their ability to contend against top teams down the stretch.

According to Bovada’s football oddsmakers, the Bears have just 10/1 odds of winning the Super Bowl despite at times looking like the most dominant team the league has to offer. Although a Week 11 win over Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers wouldn’t guarantee anything, it could help fans and critics alike start to get behind Jay Cutler and the rest of Chicago’s uninspiring offense.

For San Francisco, more than simple momentum is on the line. With some of the best NFL odds in the league, the 49ers could use the opportunity to put distance between themselves and the rest of the NFC West Division.

Only one can get what they want.

How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up San Francisco's No. 15-ranked offense (23.7 PPG) against a Bears defense that ranks No. 2 at 14.8 PPG. The 49ers passing attack has averaged 195.7 yards per game, less than the Bears give up through the air (215 YPG on average).

In comparing defenses, the Bears own the league's No. 9-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 91.5 yards per game when on the road. San Francisco, on the other hand, rates No. 1 this week in generating rushing yards at home.

Chicago lost its last outing, a 13-6 result against the Texans on November 11. The Bears failed to cover in that game as a 1-point favorite, while the 19 combined points took the game UNDER the total. In their last gridiron battle, Brandon Marshall did much of the damage, producing 107 receiving yards but Chicago managed to defeat the Bears 13-6 at Soldier Field.

Last time out for San Francisco, they tied the Rams 24-24 at home. The 49ers failed to cover in the match as a 13.5-point favorite, while 48 combined points moved the game UNDER for totals bettors.

Chicago Bears Trends:
When playing in November are 8-2
When playing on grass are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 6-4

San Francisco 49ers Trends:
When playing in November are 6-3-1
When playing on grass are 7-2-1
After being outgained are 9-1
When playing outside the division are 6-4

A few Bears at 49ers trends to consider:
Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
San Francisco10-2-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
San Francisco19-5-1 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games

Next up:
Chicago home to Minnesota, Sunday, November 25
San Francisco at New Orleans, Sunday, November 25