Falcons Patriots Betting Preview
The Patriots opened as 2-point favorites, but the point spread on this Sunday night showdown settled at Pick ‘em early in the week.
New England is 3-0, but just 1-2 against the spread. The Patriots are coming off their most impressive performance so far, though, in a 23-3 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. New England is hoping to get star tight end Rob Gronkowski back for the first time this season.
The Falcons have been ravaged by injuries, with five starters sitting out at last week’s tough loss at Miami. RB Steven Jackson will miss his second straight game, leaving Jaquizz Rogers and Jason Snelling to handle the ground game. Top linebacker Sean Weatherspoon and starting defensive end Kroy Biermann will be out again against the Patriots.
The Falcons have covered the spread in just one of their last four home games, but historically they are dominant at home early in the season (14-1 SU, 12-3 ATS in 15 September home games since 2003). Meanwhile, the Pats are 6-1 ATS in their past seven road games as a small underdog (less than three points).
The Falcons currently sports a record of 1-2, and have posted a corresponding betting slate of 1-2 ATS. The Patriots are 3-0 and 1-2 ATS. Betting totals have seen the Falcons post a 2-1 over under record this season, while the Patriots have gone 0-3 against the number.
Patriots vs Falcons betting line: Oddsmakers at Bovada opened the Falcons as 2-point underdogs in the game but the betting swung to Atlanta's favor early in the week. Meanwhile the betting total was sitting at 49 over at SportBet.
The Falcons - Patriots odds would favor the Patriots if the lines were set according to power ranks. Atlanta is rated No. 8 in our latest OddsShark poll, while the Patriots sit at No. 2. Math models based on recent stats and predictive formulas point to a 26-17 win for the Patriots.
New England won its last outing, a 23-3 result against the Buccaneers on September 22. The Patriots covered in that game as a 7-point favorite, while the 26 combined points took the game UNDER the total.
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Atlanta's No. 14-ranked offense (23.67 PPG) against a Patriots defense that ranks No. 3 at 11.33 PPG. The Falcons passing attack has averaged 289 yards per game, more than the Patriots give up through the air (188.33 YPG on average).
In comparing defenses, the Patriots own the league's No. 8-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 84 yards per game when on the road. Atlanta, on the other hand, rates No. 31 this week in generating rushing yards at home.
A few Patriots at Falcons trends to consider:
New England is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
New England is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England's last 7 games
New England is 14-5-2 ATS in its last 21 games on the road
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New England
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
New England at Cincinnati, Sunday, October 6th
Atlanta at New York, Monday, October 7th