Patriots vs Saints Wagering Pick
The New England Patriots host the undefeated New Orleans Saints in the featured Sunday afternoon game and while history tells us the Saints will cover the spread, their recent run of play as a road dog is cause for betting concern.
The Patriots opened as 3-point favorites, but the line was down -1, -120 at TopBet early in the week.
The Patriots struggled to get any offense going in a 13-6 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. Tom Brady is hoping to get top-target, tight end Rob Gronkowski, back this week, which could help jumpstart an offense that hasn’t been up to Brady’s normal standards.
The Saints, on the other hand, are clicking on all cylinders. Quarterback Drew Brees is orchestrating an offense that ranks second in the league in passing yards. New Orleans also boasts a vastly improved defense. And New Orleans is 7-1 ATS in eight games vs the Pats since 1983.
These two teams last met in 2009, with the Saints winning 38-17 in New Orleans on their way to the Super Bowl. The Saints have also been tough in this spot prior to a bye week (8-1-1 ATS past 10 seasons). However, they have lost 13 of 17 road games SU as a dog dating back several seasons, which opens the door for Patriot bettors.
The Pats bring a 4-1 record (2-3 ATS) to the Week 6 battle against the 5-0 Saints, who are 4-1 ATS against the spread. Over under bettors have seen New England go 1-4 so far and the Saints go 1-4.
This game matches up the No. 4 (Patriots) and the No. 6 (Saints) teams in the league, according to our current NFL Power Rankings at OddsShark. A 28-22 result in favor of the Saints is predicted by handicapping models.
Last time out for New Orleans, they were a 26-18 winner as they battled the Bears on the road. The Saints covered in the match as a 1-point underdog, while 44 combined points moved the game UNDER for totals bettors. New Orleans won its last game, 26-18 over Chicago on Sunday, behind a 135-yard receiving performance from Jimmy Graham at Soldier Field. The Patriots suffered a Week 5 loss against Cincinnati in their last game, falling 13-6 at Paul Brown Stadium.
How They Match Up:
The game also pits New England's No. 24-ranked offense, averaging 19 PPG, against a Saints defense that ranks No. 4 this week at 14.6 PPG. The Patriots aerial game is averaging 227 yards per game, more than the Saints secondary allows through the air, 221.8 YPG per game.
Defensively, the Saints feature the league's No. 17-rated road run defense, allowing 118.67 yards per game. New England, meanwhile, ranks No. 19 in rushing offense at home.
A few Saints at Patriots trends to consider:
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Orleans's last 7 games
New Orleans is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
New England is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England's last 7 games
New England is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games at home
New Orleans at Buffalo, Sunday, October 27th
New England at New York, Sunday, October 20th