AFC Championship Game Betting Odds
Tom Brady and Peyton Manning will be squaring off in the AFC Championship Game for the third time when the New England Patriots travel to Denver this week to face the Broncos.
The Broncos opened as 6.5-point favorites after knocking off the San Diego Chargers, 24-17, in the divisional round.
For betting interest, the home team has won and covered three playoff meetings of these teams. And the past four meetings played OVER the total.
The Patriots are 5-1 SU and ATS in the past six games vs Broncos.
The Patriots were extremely impressive in a 43-22 win over the Indianapolis Colts in the divisional round. They are in the AFC Championship Game for a third straight season.
These two teams met on Monday Night Football in late November, with the Patriots rallying from behind for a 34-31 overtime win at home. Brady and the Patriots also got the best of Manning and the Broncos last season.
New England has covered the spread in seven of its last nine games as an underdog but they are just 2-7 ATS in their past nine road games overall. The Patriots are just 3-9 ATS in their past 12 playoff games, but they have won and covered eight straight vs AFC West teams.
The Broncos meanwhile have also struggled with the spread at playoff time, going just 2-7 ATS in their past nine playoff games. The Broncos are also on a 0-5 SU and ATS run vs AFC East teams. They have played four straight UNDERs, in contrast to their early-season trend of high-scoring OVER bets.
According to the Power Rankings here at OddsShark it's the No. 3-rated Broncos and the No. 6-rated Patriots in this matchup. Predictive formulas point to a 37-33 win for the Broncos on Sunday.
New England won its last outing, a 43-22 result against the Colts on January 11. The Patriots covered in that game as a 7.5-point favorite, while the 65 combined points took the game OVER the total. Peyton Manning threw a pair of TD passes in Denver's last match, defeating San Diego 24-17 in Divisional Playoff action on Sunday.
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Denver's No. 1-ranked offense (37.06 PPG) against a Patriots defense that ranks No. 9 at 21.18 PPG. The Broncos passing attack has averaged 333.76 yards per game, more than the Patriots give up through the air (243.59 YPG on average).
Defensively, the Patriots feature the league's No. 18-rated road run defense, allowing 120.88 yards per game. Denver, meanwhile, ranks No. 19 in rushing offense at home.
A few Patriots at Broncos trends to consider:
New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 7 games
New England is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
New England is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games on the road
Denver is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
Denver is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Denver's last 18 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
New England home to , Wednesday, December 31st
Denver home to , Wednesday, December 31st