Giants vs Falcons NFC Wild Card Pick
The New York Giants eked into the playoffs and get a home Wild Card matchup against the Atlanta Falcons, a team that beat bad teams and lost to good teams during the season.
Are the 9-7 Giants good or bad? It depends on the week. However, Atlanta has historically dominated here in the Meadowlands, going 5-1 SU and 6-0 since 1982.
In total, these teams have met 12 times since 1982 and the UNDER has been the best bet, prevailing 10 times. The Giants were favored 9 times in 2011 and covered the spread just three times.
Atlanta is just 2-8 SU in its past 8 games against NFC East teams.
Sportsbooks have set the Giants as 3-point favorites on the opening line for this contest. The total is listed at 48.5 and early NFC Wild Card betting action went on the Falcons at shops such as Bovada.
Power Rankings / Prediction:
The power rankings show a disparity between these teams, with the Giants rated this week at No. 23 and the Falcons sitting at No. 7. It may or may not play a role in OddsShark score prediction models that turned out a 27-24 result in favor of the Falcons this week.
Falcons vs Giants Game Props, courtesy of Bovada:
ATL vs NYG
Total Passing Yards – Matt Ryan (ATL)
Total Rushing Yards – Michael Turner (ATL)
Total Receiving Yards – Roddy White (ATL)
Total Receiving Yards – Julio Jones (ATL)
Total Passing Yards – Eli Manning (NYG)
Total Receiving Yards – Hakeem Nicks (NYG)
Total Receiving Yards – Victor Cruz (NYG)
Longest Reception - Victor Cruz (NYG)
Over/Under 45.5 Yards
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up New York's No. 9-ranked offense (24.6 PPG) against a Falcons defense that ranks No. 18 at 21.9 PPG. The Giants passing attack has averaged 295.9 yards per game, more than the Falcons give up through the air (236.6 YPG on average).
In comparing defenses, the Falcons own the league's No. 16-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 115.8 yards per game when on the road. New York, on the other hand, rates No. 31 this week in generating rushing yards at home.
Atlanta won its last outing, a 45-24 result against the Buccaneers on January 1. The Falcons covered in that game as a 9.5-point favorite, while the 69 combined points took the game OVER the total. Michael Turner tore up the turf for 172 rushing yards in the latest Falcons game, a 45-24 win over the Buccaneers at Georgia Dome.
The Giants were a 31-14 winner in their most recent outing at home against the Cowboys. They covered the 3–point spread as favorites, while the total score (45) made winners of UNDER bettors. New York comes off a game where it received a 3-TD performance from Eli Manning in defeating the Cowboys 31-14.
Atlanta Falcons Trends:
When playing in January are 4-6
When playing on turf are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 7-3
New York Giants Trends:
When playing in January are 6-4
When playing on turf are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing outside the division are 6-4
A few Falcons at Giants trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing NY Giants
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
Atlanta is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the NY Giants last 7 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games at home
NY Giants are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing Atlanta
NY Giants are 2-4-1 ATS in their last 7 games at home