The Indiana Pacers are one victory away from returning to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2000, but they'll first need to put away the New York Knicks in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference finals on Thursday night at Madison Square Garden.
Here are four expert player prop picks for what could be the last matchup in this best-of-seven series, including an OVER on a scoring prop for Pacers forward Pascal Siakam (-110) on May 29.
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Pascal Siakam OVER 20.5 Points vs. Knicks (-110 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
Preview: Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks, 8 p.m. ET
From being the target of rather harsh criticism courtesy of "Agent Zero" Gilbert Arenas to now being "Agent Hero" for Indiana, Siakam has played every bit a No. 1 option against the Knicks without garnering much of the spotlight, as his teammate Tyrese Haliburton has been the topic of discussion more often than not. Siakam has actually been the player leading the Pacers in scoring through four games, averaging 25.8 points while shooting 54.1 percent from the field and 50 percent from 3-point range, and he's dropped over 30 points twice in Games 2 and 4, respectively.
In Games 1 and 3, though, the three-time All-Star generated exactly 17 points each time, so the possibility remains that he'll fail to exceed Thursday's prop of 20.5 points in a potential closeout scenario. Siakam's 39-point outburst in Game 2 did come on the road, at least, so he's proven more than capable of torching New York in its own backyard. He's totalled 21 or more shot attempts in two of his last three appearances, as well, so barring the Knicks blowing out Indiana from the beginning and not relenting, it's safe to assume Siakam can make bank for bettors once again in the Big Apple.
Obi Toppin OVER 3.5 Rebounds vs. Knicks (+110 at FanDuel)
Preview: Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks, 8 p.m. ET
There's certainly a ceiling to what someone like backup big man Obi Toppin could achieve in Game 5, as he's played 20 or fewer minutes in all four games of the series thus far. He's scored in the double digits just three times the entire postseason across 14 appearances, having never taken more than four shots in a single game. I'm not looking into his offense here, though, because his rebounding is where the greatest value lies.
Toppin needs just four rebounds at +110 value on Thursday, and while he's only accomplished that four times in the playoffs, two of those occasions have come against his former team in the Knicks. His strongest showing came in the series opener on May 21 when he just missed out on a double-double of eight points and 10 boards coming off the pine. Now he's only combined to grab eight total rebounds in the three outings since, but as an energy guy with the backdrop of a crowd which he competed in front of for the first three years of his career, there's some potential here for this to connect.
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Karl-Anthony Towns OVER 1.5 Made 3-Pointers vs. Pacers (-128 at FanDuel)
Preview: Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks, 8 p.m. ET
The conundrum over whether or not Karl-Anthony Towns is attempting enough shots from behind the arc is a puzzling one to decipher, because for someone of his caliber with a 46.2-percent 3-point efficiency in this postseason, there really shouldn't be nights when he's only taking one which has happened three times already. Then again, New York is a perfect 3-0 in the win-loss column over these last 16 games when Towns only attempts one, so striking the right balance can undoubtedly be achieved.
Any bettors tailing this wager are praying that Towns doesn't have one of those one-attempt lines, because he'll obviously need two or more makes for this prop to notch. Now he's pulled that off in the first three games versus the Pacers, but he only went 1-of-2 in Game 4. One of the bigger problems for the Knicks on Tuesday was their inability to keep pace with Indiana's scoring attack, trailing by 11 at the end of three quarters. Towns doesn't need to turn into Stephen Curry overnight, but he needs to pick his spots better and trust that his range will come through in Game 5 because his team needs every last bucket.
Jalen Brunson UNDER 6.5 Assists vs. Pacers (+105 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
Preview: Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks, 8 p.m. ET
The easy route would be to roll with Jalen Brunson's points total, with oddsmakers setting the number at 30.5 as he's gone OVER in three of the four games with the Pacers. New York's back is against the wall, and Brunson could go scorched earth in an effort to keep his side alive for a Game 6, but when looking at his numbers under a microscope, in actuality, his assists could be the category which brings in the most units, and that's the name of the game in the world of sports betting.
Getting an UNDER at plus money for 6.5 assists is quite surprising since Brunson has totalled just six dimes combined in Games 3 and 4. He only had five in Game 1, as well, and this is likely due to him taking no fewer than 18 shots each outing and topping out in 27 in Game 2, although he did record 11 assists that day. The trends would lead you to believe that an UNDER is forthcoming because Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau once again needs his superstar point guard to be a scorer, not a facilitator.
