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How Josh Rosen Can Win The Heisman

Josh Rosen entered UCLA as the savior. A five-star recruit - the best player in his entire recruiting class - that could single-handedly put the Bruins on his back and bring the team back to the promised land. Rosen had a phenomenal freshman season, but what exactly does the youngster need to do to win the Heisman Trophy this season?

Rosen already has the first checkmark – he is a quarterback. Seven of the past nine Heisman winners have been signal callers. Using those seven quarterbacks as a barometer for the statistical numbers for Heisman-winning quarterback, let’s see if Rosen has a realistic chance of achieving this level of success in 2016.

Average Statistics For Past Seven Heisman Winning QBs
Completion %Passing YardsTD/INTRushing YardsRushing TD
68.1391036.5/7.1808.614.5

Those are some large numbers for Rosen to attempt to live up to. The UCLA quarterback completed 60 percent of his passes last season and threw for 3670 yards in his freshman season. With a year in the system and another year of maturity, those stats should be fairly easy enough for Rosen to accomplish.

The biggest difficulty in the passing game is Rosen increasing his touchdowns while limiting his turnovers despite losing his top two targets from last season – Jordan Payton and Thomas Suarte. Normally you would hope that Rosen could lean on the running game while getting more familiar with his receivers, but UCLA’s starting running back from last season - Paul Perkins - is also suiting up in the NFL.

The above numbers also have an assumption that Rosen could rush for 800-plus yards and double-digit touchdowns. That is not really the case, as Rosen is a pocket passer who rushed for a grand total of 15 yards last season. Only two of the past seven Heisman winning quarterbacks have rushed for less than 250 yards and they needed to post some ridiculous passing numbers to make up for that.

Heisman Winning QBs in Past Decade To Rush <250 yards
NameCompletion %Passing YardsTD/INTRushing YardsRushing TD
Jameis Winston68.3405740/102194
Sam Bradford67.9472050/8475

If you look at those numbers as a more realistic benchmark for Rosen to claim the Heisman, he will need to complete 68.1 percent of his passes, throw for 4388 yards with 45 touchdowns and nine interceptions. That means that Rosen will need to increase every major statistical passing category by at least 11 percent from his freshman season to sophomore season.

I’ll be honest – Rosen has the talent to achieve these numbers. I think he could easily achieve these numbers in the right position, but there are so many pieces missing around him. UCLA needs to replace their top-three offensive weapons around Rosen while also replacing their starting center and right guard from last season.

2016 Heisman Trophy Winner
PlayerOdds
Deshaun Watson (QB Clemson)+350
Leonard Fournette (RB LSU)+400
Christian McCaffery (RB Stanford) +500
JT Barrett (QB Ohio State)+1000
Chad Kelly (QB Ole Miss)+1200
Dalvin Cook (RB Florida State)+1200
Baker Mayfield (QB Oklahoma)+1200
Nick Chubb (RB Georgia)+1400
Josh Rosen (QB UCLA)+1600
Royce Freeman (RB Oregon)+2000
Samaje Perine (RB Oklahoma)+2000
Calvin Ridely (WR Alabama)+2500
Joshua Dobbs (QB Tennessee)+2500
Brad Kaaya (QB Miami)+3300
Patrick Mahomes (QB Texas Tech)+3300

Odds as of June 7 at Bovada

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We are literally months away from the start of the college football season, though you can get some spring training action now before school lets out for the summer, but that doesn’t mean that it is too early to look at betting lines. Odds hit the board shortly after the end of last season for both the National Championship and the Heisman.

Just because we can’t predict the future doesn’t mean that we can’t try. So here are three early Heisman candidates that you should avoid wagering your money on.

QB Chad Kelly – Ole Miss (+1200)

Chad Kelly put up very good numbers in his first season with Ole Miss with the Buffalo, New York-native throwing for over 4000 yards and completing over 65 percent of his passes. However, Kelly will have an uphill battle to recreate those numbers with his receiver depth taking a hit.

Kelly is losing Laquon Treadwell who accounted for more than 25 percent of his passing yards and over a third of his passing touchdowns. The Rebels also graduated their second leading receiver Cody Core, though there was a huge dropoff between Treadwell and everyone else.

Ole Miss will also be facing four teams that ranked in the top 15 in passing defense last season.

Kelly will likely be the number one option on a team that will be filled with youngsters, but because of that his numbers are completely reliant on a lot of other unproven talent succeeding.

QB JT Barrett - Ohio State (+1000)

After last season's quarterback carossel, JT Barrett is once again the man in Columbus. Barrett has posted massive numbers in his first season as starter, in 2014, before suffering an injury and getting passed by Cardale Jones on the depth chart.

Barrett has the ability to win the Heisman, but much like Chad Kelly, he will be largely going after the award without proven talent surrounding him. The Ohio State offense has lost their starting running back, two of their top three receivers, their starting tight end and their starting left tackle from last year. That leaves a lot of question marks for Barrett.

The Buckeyes will certainly win thanks to the marvellous coaching of Urban Meyer, but the odds that Barrett is ultimately the centerpiece of this team seem slim.

RB Christian McCaffrey – Stanford (+500)

This is likely the point where you call me crazy. Christian McCaffrey had one of the greatest seasons in college football history last season. He led Stanford in rushing yards, receiving yards and return yards while breaking the record for most yards from scrimmage in history.

And all that is why he won’t win this season.

McCaffrey is coming off a phenomenal season, but finished second in the Heisman voting. If the Castle Rock-native can’t win a Heisman after that performance than he won’t likely win it this season either. The season he had was once in a generation and producing numbers similar to that in two consecutive seasons is almost impossible.

McCaffrey will also likely be searching for running lanes with Stanford watching their starting left tackle, left guard and center all leave for the NFL. When you add that into the team watching four-year starting quarterback Kevin Hogan leave, the offense in Stanford is influx.

Don’t get me wrong, McCaffrey will put up more ridiculous numbers next season, but with almost no threat of a passing game and an inexperienced offensive line, he will be facing stacked boxes and tons of pressure to carry the team.  

Here's the current Heisman odds:

2016 Heisman Trophy Winner
PlayerOdds
Deshaun Watson (QB Clemson)+350
Leonard Fournette (RB LSU)+400
Christian McCaffery (RB Stanford) +500
JT Barrett (QB Ohio State)+1000
Chad Kelly (QB Ole Miss)+1200
Dalvin Cook (RB Florida State)+1200
Baker Mayfield (QB Oklahoma)+1400
Nick Chubb (RB Georgia)+1400
Josh Rosen (QB UCLA)+1600
Royce Freeman (RB Oregon)+2000
Samaje Perine (RB Oklahoma)+2000
Calvin Ridley (WR Alabama)+2500
Joshua Dobbs (QB Tennessee)+2500
Brad Kaaya (QB Miami)+3300
Patrick Mahomes (QB Texas Tech)+3300

Odds as of June 6 at Bovada

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After finishing third in the Heisman race this past season, Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson has opened as the favorite to take home the hardware next season. Watson is only a slight favorite though, as running backs Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette are breathing down his neck.

Watson had a massive season that culminated in Clemson appearing in the National Championship game. In 15 games this past season, Watson threw for 4104 yards with 35 touchdowns while adding another 12 trips to the endzone with his feet. Bovada had opened Watson as the +450 favorite to win the Heisman next season, but that has since shifted to +300. Watson will return almost all of his offensive weapons next season, with the lone exception being Charone Peake.

McCaffrey set the record for most yards from the line of scrimmage last season as the Stanford back accounted for 3215 yards and 15 touchdowns. The one thing working against McCaffrey's Heisman bid is his offensive line, as four of the o-line's starters have graduated.

At one point during last season, Fournette seemed like a lock to win the Heisman. Through the sophomore's first seven games this past season, he averaged 193.1 rushing yards per game while finding the endzone on 16 occasions. Fournette slowed down considerably in the second half of the season, but capped off the year with a 212 yard, four-touchdown performance in the Texas Bowl.

The lone non-quarterback or running back listed is Alabama receiver Calvin Ridley. As a freshman Ridely led the Crimson Tide with 1045 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. However, quarterback Jake Coker will be graduated next season for the Tide and Ridley will have a new signal caller throwing to him.

2016 Heisman Trophy Winner
PlayerOdds
Deshaun Watson (QB Clemson)+300
Christian McCaffrey (RB Stanford)+400
Leonard Fournette (RB LSU)+400
JT Barrett (QB Ohio State)+1000
Chad Kelly (QB Ole Miss)+1200
Dalvin Cook (RB Florida State)+1200
Baker Mayfield (QB Oklahoma)+1400
Nick Chubb (RB Georgia)+1400
Royce Freeman (RB Oregon)+1400
Samaje Perine (RB Oklahoma)+2000
Calvin Ridely (WR Alabama)+2000
Joshua Dobbs (QB Tennessee)+2000
Josh Rosen (QB UCLA)+2000
Brad Kaaya (QB Miami)+3300

Odds as of February 12 at Bovada

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I hope you got your bets in early on Derrick Henry because he is now a massive favorite to take home the Heisman trophy this year. The Alabama running back was as high as +2500 as of August 25 at Bovada, but is now a -500 favorite with the finalists announced Monday.

Henry set the SEC single season rushing record this year, passing Herschel Walker, with 1,986 yards. The junior became the favorite on November 9 after rushing for 210 yards and three touchdowns against LSU and then Heisman front-runner Leonard Fournette.

Christian McCaffery comes in behind Henry with the Stanford running back breaking Barry Sanders' 27 year old record for most all-purpose yards in a season. McCaffery’s 3,496 all-purpose yards was almost 1,100 more than the next closet player in the nation.

Rounding out the finalists is Clemson’s Deshaun Watson. The Tigers went undefeated through the regular season and locked up the No.1 seed in the college football playoff. Watson turned it on in the second half of the season with the sophomore throwing for 16 touchdowns and four interceptions while finding the paydirt nine more times on his feet.

2015 Heisman Trophy Winner
PlayerOdds
Derrick Henry (RB Alabama)-500
Christian McCaffrey (RB Stanford)+325
Deshaun Watson (QB Clemson)+1200

Odds as of December 8 at Bovada

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Derrick Henry just can’t be stopped. The running back had another 200-plus yard rushing performance last week for Alabama, which has brought him up to four 200-plus yard games in the past six games. In the past six games, the junior back has rushed for a combined 1132 yards and 12 touchdowns. Henry is now listed at -300 to win the Heisman on Bovada.

Henry is a massive favorite, but the only player within striking distance is Deshaun Watson of Clemson who is currently listed at +500. In the past three weeks, Watson has thrown for six touchdowns while rushing for another five for the top-ranked team in the nation.

A few players have been taken off the board after Week 13, with Navy quarterback Keenan Reynolds falling off the list after only being listed last week and Baylor receiver Corey Coleman who has tallied a mere nine receptions and 136 yards the past three games.

2015 Heisman Trophy Winner
PlayerOdds
Derrick Henry (RB Alabama)-300
Deshaun Watson (QB Clemson)+500
Christian McCaffrey (RB Stanford)+1200
Ezekiel Elliott (RB Ohio State)+1200
Baker Mayfield (QB Oklahoma)+1800
Dalvin Cook (RB Florida State)+2000
Leonard Fournette (RB LSU)+3300

Odds as of November 30 at Bovada

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It appears that there's no way to stop Derrick Henry from scoring. Despite only rushing the ball nine times in Alabama’s win over Charleston Southern, Henry found the endzone twice, which extends his streak of games with multiple touchdowns to five. The junior's late season surge has put him firmly atop the list for Heisman odds, with Bovada listing him as a -250 favorite.

The only player that's close to Henry on the odds list is Deshaun Watson, who is currently listed at +300. Watson is the offensive centerpiece to the top team in the nation—Clemson. The sophomore quarterback has accounted for 16 touchdowns (12 passing, four rushing) and only five turnovers in the past five games.

For the first time this season we see Navy quarterback Keenan Reynolds listed in the Heisman odds. The senior is second in college football in rushing touchdowns while leading the triple-option offense of the Midshipmen this season.

2015 Heisman Trophy Winner
PlayerOdds
Derrick Henry (RB Alabama)-250
Deshaun Watson (QB Clemson)+300
Ezekiel Elliott (RB Ohio State)+1400
Leonard Fournette (RB LSU)+1400
Baker Mayfield (QB Oklahoma)+1400
Keenan Reynolds (QB Navy)+2500
Christian McCaffrey (RB Stanford)+5000
Dalvin Cook (RB Florida State)+5000
Corey Coleman (WR Baylor)+6600

Odds as of November 24 at Bovada

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Derrick Henry just keeps getting better as the season goes on as the Alabama running back recorded his second consecutive game with 200-plus rushing yards and two or more touchdowns. The junior has now rushed for a touchdown in 15 consecutive games, the longest by any SEC player in the past 20 seasons.

At Bovada Henry continues to be the odds on favorite to win the Heisman, listed at -150. The next closest players are fellow backs Leonard Fournette and Ezekiel Elliott at +450.

The past two games have seen Fournette struggle as he has rushed for a combined 122 yards, which is less than any of his previous single game marks.

2015 Heisman Trophy Winner
PlayerOdds
Derrick Henry (RB Alabama)-150
Leonard Fournette (RB LSU)+450
Ezekiel Elliott (RB Ohio State)+450
Deshaun Watson (QB Clemson)+700
Corey Coleman (WR Baylor)+2500
Christian McCaffrey (RB Stanford)+5000

Odds as of November 16 at Bovada

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With a big performance against rival LSU over the weekend Alabama running back Derrick Henry is the new favorite on the odds to win the 2015 Heisman Trophy, while the Tigers' Leonard Fournette has dropped to second on those college football betting props.

At Bovada Henry is now the +150 favorite on the 2015 Heisman Trophy odds, with Fournette behind him at +200. Henry rushed for 210 yards and three touchdowns in Alabama's win over LSU, with Fournette held to 31 yards and one score.

Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott is third at +700 on the odds to win the 2015 Heisman Trophy at the sportsbook, with Baylor wide receiver Corey Coleman and Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson both set at +800 on those betting lines.

2015 Heisman Trophy Winner
PlayerOdds
Derrick Henry (RB Alabama)+150
Leonard Fournette (RB LSU)+200
Ezekiel Elliott (RB Ohio State)+700
Corey Coleman (WR Baylor)+800
Deshaun Watson (QB Clemson)+800
Trevone Boykin (QB TCU)+1600
Christian McCaffrey (RB Stanford)+1600

Odds as of November 9 at Bovada

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Leonard Fournette continues to fend off all challengers on the odds to win the Heisman Trophy at the online sportsbooks, with the LSU running back the -225 favorite at Bovada heading into the month of November.

TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin is then at +500, with Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott at +800, and Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson at +900. Alabama running back Derrick Henry (+1400), Stanford running back Christian McCaffrey (+2500), Baylor wide receiver Corey Coleman (+4000), and Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch (+7500) round out the current Heisman Trophy odds.

2015 Heisman Trophy Winner
PlayerOdds
Leonard Fournette (RB LSU)-225
Trevone Boykin (QB TCU)+500
Ezekiel Elliott (RB Ohio State)+800
Deshaun Watson (QB Clemson)+900
Derrick Henry (RB Alabama)+1400
Christian McCaffrey (RB Stanford)+2500
Corey Coleman (WR Baylor)+4000
Paxton Lynch (QB Memphis)+7500

Odds as of November 2 at Bovada

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With Baylor quarterback Seth Russell now injured and out for the season LSU running back Leonard Fournette is an even bigger frontrunner on the odds to win the Heisman Trophy at the sportsbooks. At Bovada Fournette is the clear -250 favorite on that college football prop, with TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin next on the list at +750.

Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott then sits third on the Heisman Trophy odds at +900, with Alabama running back Derrick Henry and Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson both at +1100. Stanford running back Christian McCaffrey rounds out the second tier of Heisman Trophy contenders at +1800 at Bovada.

2015 Heisman Trophy Winner
PlayerOdds
Leonard Fournette (RB LSU)-250
Trevone Boykin (QB TCU)+750
Ezekiel Elliott (RB Ohio State)+900
Derrick Henry (RB Alabama)+1100
Deshaun Watson (QB Clemson)+1100
Christian McCaffrey (RB Stanford)+1800
Corey Coleman (WR Baylor)+4000
Dalvin Cook (RB Florida State)+5000
Paxton Lynch (QB Memphis)+5000

Odds as of October 26 at Bovada

-------------------------------

LSU running back Leonard Fournette continues to lead the way on the odds to win the Heisman Trophy at the sportsbooks, sitting at -200 on the latest betting props at online sportsbook Bovada. That has Fournette still well ahead of second place Seth Russell, with the Baylor quarterback sitting at +550 odds to win the Heisman Trophy.

TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin holds down third place on the list at +850, while Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott and Alabama running back Derrick Henry are both pegged at +1600. Florida State running back Dalvin Cook and Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson are each listed at +2200 on the updated Heisman Trophy odds for this week.

2015 Heisman Trophy Winner

Odds as of October 19 at Bovada

  • Leonard Fournette (RB LSU) -200
  • Seth Russell (QB Baylor) +550
  • Trevone Boykin (QB TCU) +850
  • Ezekiel Elliott (RB Ohio State) +1600
  • Derrick Henry (RB Alabama) +1600
  • Dalvin Cook (RB Florida State) +2200
  • Deshaun Watson (QB Clemson) +2200
  • Christian McCaffrey (RB Stanford) +2500
  • Corey Coleman (WR Baylor) +3300

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Leonard Fournette remains atop the odds to win the Heisman Trophy heading into Week 7 of the college football season, as he's up to -220 on the updated betting lines at sportsbook Bovada. Baylor quarterback Seth Russell is second on the list at +650, followed by TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin at +800, and Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott at +1200.

2015 Heisman Trophy Winner

Odds as of October 13 at Bovada

  • Leonard Fournette (RB LSU) -220
  • Seth Russell (QB Baylor) +650
  • Trevone Boykin (QB TCU) +800
  • Ezekiel Elliott (RB Ohio State) +1200
  • Dalvin Cook (RB Florida State) +1800
  • Derrick Henry (RB Alabama) +2000
  • Deshaun Watson (QB Clemson) +2000
  • Corey Coleman (WR Baylor) +4000
  • Devontae Booker (RB Utah) +4000
  • Josh Doctson (WR TCU) +4000
  • Kyle Allen (QB Texas A&M) +4500
  • Baker Mayfield (QB Oklahoma) +5000
  • Cardale Jones (QB Ohio State) +5000
  • Chad Kelly (QB Ole Miss) +5000
  • Braxton Miller (QB Ohio State) +5000
  • C.J. Prosise (RB Notre Dame) +6000
  • Jared Goff (QB California) +7500
  • Connor Cook (QB Michigan State) +7500
  • Myles Garrett (DL Texasm A&M) +7500
  • Paul Perkins (RB UCLA) +10000
  • Josh Rosen (QB UCLA) +10000

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LSU's Leonard Fournette is now the runaway leader on the odds to win the Heisman Trophy at the online sportsbooks, as the running back sits as the -200 favorite on those college football season betting props at Bovada heading into Week 6 of the schedule.

Baylor quarterback Seth Russell now follows Fournette at +800, with Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott at +900, TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin at +950, and Georgia running back Nick Chubb at +1500. California quarterback Jared Goff (+2000) and Alabama running back Derrick Henry (+2200) round out the top of the Bovada board.

2015 Heisman Trophy Winner

Odds as of October 5 at Bovada

  • Leonard Fournette (RB LSU) -200
  • Seth Russell (QB Baylor) +800
  • Ezekiel Elliott (RB Ohio State) +900
  • Trevone Boykin (QB TCU) +950
  • Nick Chubb (RB Georgia) +1500
  • Jared Goff (QB California) +2000
  • Derrick Henry (RB Alabama) +2200
  • Deshaun Watson (QB Clemson) +2500
  • Cody Kessler (QB USC) +2500
  • Baker Mayfield (QB Oklahoma) +2500
  • Kyle Allen (QB Texas A&M) +3500
  • Cardale Jones (QB Ohio State) +4000
  • Connor Cook (QB Michigan State) +6000
  • Dalvin Cook (RB Florida State) +6500
  • Chad Kelly (QB Ole Miss) +6500
  • C.J. Prosise (RB Notre Dame) +7500
  • Paul Perkins (RB UCLA) +7500
  • Josh Rosen (QB UCLA) +7500
  • Myles Garrett (DL Texasm A&M) +7500

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Leonard Fournette has increased his lead on the odds to win the Heisman Trophy at the online sportsbooks, with the LSU running back now the clear +150 chalk at Bovada ahead of Georgia running back Nick Chubb (+700) and TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin (+700).

Baylor quarterback Seth Russell is now alone in fourth on the Heisman Trophy odds at +800, with Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott having slipped to fifth at +1200 to put him in a tie with USC quarterback Cody Kessler. Buckeyes quarterback Cardale Jones is now back at +2500, with Michigan State quarterback Connor Cook having fallen to +4000.

2015 Heisman Trophy Winner

Odds as of September 28 at Bovada

  • Leonard Fournette (RB LSU) +150
  • Nick Chubb (RB Georgia) +700
  • Trevone Boykin (QB TCU) +700
  • Seth Russell (QB Baylor) +800
  • Ezekiel Elliott (RB Ohio State) +1200
  • Cody Kessler (QB USC) +1200
  • Derrick Henry (RB Alabama) +2000
  • Kyle Allen (QB Texas A&M) +2000
  • C.J. Prosise (RB Notre Dame) +2500
  • Cardale Jones (QB Ohio State) +2500
  • Deshaun Watson (QB Clemson) +2500
  • Paul Perkins (RB UCLA) +2500
  • Josh Rosen (QB UCLA) +2800
  • Chad Kelly (QB Ole Miss) +3300
  • Connor Cook (QB Michigan State) +4000
  • Dalvin Cook (RB Florida State) +4000
  • Jared Goff (QB California) +4000
  • Will Fuller (WR Notre Dame) +5000
  • Everett Golson (QB Florida State) +5000
  • Dak Prescott (QB Mississippi State) +5000
  • Brad Kaaya (QB Miami) +6600

 

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