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MNF Betting Preview: Bills at Patriots

Monday Night Football Bills Patriots

Is anyone going to stop the New England Patriots this year? The New York Giants came close in Week 10 but fell just short, which means it’ll be up to the Buffalo Bills to play the role of David in knocking off the Goliath Pats at Gillette Stadium in the Week 11 edition of Monday Night Football.

Shark Bites
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Bills' last 12 games as underdogs.
  • The Patriots are 13-2 SU and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games in November.
  • The Bills are 2-13 SU in their last 15 games after winning as an underdog.

New England has feasted on their AFC East rivals in recent matchups, going 18-2 SU in their last 20 games versus the Bills. Tom Brady and company have also thoroughly enjoyed the bright lights that Monday brings, going 11-3 SU in their previous 14 primetime Monday games.

The Bills (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) are riding a high thanks to wins over the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins but have historically struggled to win three straight. Buffalo is 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after consecutive wins.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

Those siding with the visitors in this matchup saw the Buffalo Bills listed as 7.5-point underdogs at shops such as Bovada. Meanwhile, the over under line for the betting matchup was at 49.5 over at 5Dimes.

Odds Shark prediction models pick the Patriots to win this game on Monday 29-16. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

New England bring a 9-0 record (5-2-2 ATS) to the Week 11 betting matchup against the 5-4 Buffalo Bills, who are 5-4 ATS against the spread. Over under betting has seen New England go 5-4 so far and the Bills go 5-4. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and New England vs Buffalo injuries news.

The New England Patriots sit at No. 1 in the current NFL Power Rankings here at Odds Shark, while the Buffalo Bills are at No. 12 on that chart.

Statistical Matchup

The game also pits New England's No. 1-ranked offense, averaging 33.67 PPG, against a Bills defense that ranks No. 15 this week at 23 PPG. The Patriots aerial game is averaging 325.89 yards per game, more than the Bills secondary allows through the air, 252.11 YPG per game.

Defensively, the Buffalo Bills feature the league's No. 17-rated road run defense, allowing 111.75 yards per game. The New England Patriots, meanwhile, ranks No. 23 in rushing offense at home.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

Last time we saw the Jets, they had no answer for LeSean McCoy as the Bills rolled to a 22-17 victory at MetLife Stadium.

Tom Brady led his team to victory last time out, throwing for 334 yards Sunday as the Patriots downed the Giants 27-26 at MetLife Stadium.

Betting Trends
  • Buffalo is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Buffalo's last 25 games
  • Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
  • Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
  • New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • New England is 16-5-2 ATS in its last 23 games at home
  • New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 6 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

Buffalo at Kansas City, Sunday, November 29th
New England at Denver, Sunday, November 29th

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