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DEN-NE: OVER Trends Flying off the Page

Broncos Patriots Brady Manning

Here we go again. For the 17th, and quite possibly last time in their illustrious careers, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning will faceoff, and a trip to Super Bowl 50 is on the line. The Patriots come into Denver opening as 3-point favorites, but the real story might be the O/U total, as OVER trends are at an eye-popping level for the game.

With the total sitting at 44, O/U bettors will want to give strong consideration to the OVER. The Patriots have posted a record of 8-3 O/U this season in games with a total of less than 50 points. Digging even deeper, over the past five seasons, the Patriots have gone 18-5 O/U when facing a total of 45 or lower, averaging 30 points in those games. The Patriots also tend to put up big numbers in revenge situations, as the total has gone OVER in an amazing 15 straight Pats games after they lost the previous game in a matchup. Even more—these teams have gone OVER in six of their last seven games against each other. As always when betting totals, keep an eye on the weather as the game approaches.

Shark Bites
  • The total has gone OVER in five of New England's last seven games.
  • The Patriots are 5-2 SU and ATS in their last seven games against the Broncos.
  • Denver is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games at home.

As for the 3-point spread—that’s a number the Patriots haven’t responded well to. New England has lost three straight games both SU and ATS as a favorite of 3-points or less, with each of those games being on the road. The 3-point mark might be a magic number for the Broncos, however, as they’re a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games as an underdog of 3-points or less.

The Broncos got the better of the Patriots in a Week 12 game in Denver—30-24. For better or worse though, the Broncos will look like a much different team this time around, as Brock Osweiler filled in for Manning under center in the game. Denver’s offensive attack was highlighted by 29 carries between C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman who rushed for a combined 172 yards and three touchdowns.

Despite being the top seed in the AFC, the Broncos have been a team to stay away from at the betting window, as they’ve now failed to cover the spread in five straight games, going 0-3-2. Unfortunately for Patriots backers, they also have an ATS trend working against them, as they’ve gone 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.

Looking for an edge based on the history of Manning vs Brady? Brady’s gone 11-5 SU and 9-6-1 ATS vs Manning in their careers, while they’ve split four playoff games against each other, both SU and ATS. For more on Brady vs Manning, check out our breakdown of their head-to-head matchups.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

Betting fans looking to back the visiting New England Patriots in this one found them as -2.5-point favorites earlier in the week, while the total was settling in the neighborhood of 45 at shops such as Bovada.

Odds Shark computer prediction formulas pick a 27-15 win for the Broncos on Sunday. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.

New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

Betting fans of the Denver Broncos have seen them go 13-4 and 7-7-3 ATS so far this season, while the New England Patriots are at 13-4 and 8-6-3 ATS. In over under totals betting, the New England Patriots are 10-7, while the Denver Broncos are 6-9-2. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Denver vs New England injuries news.

According to the Power Rankings here at Odds Shark it's the No. 8-rated Denver Broncos and the No. 7-rated New England Patriots in this matchup.

Statistical Matchup

Offensively, the game matches up the Denver Broncos No. 18-ranked offense (22.24 PPG) against a New England Patriots defense that ranks No. 9 at 19.71 PPG. The Broncos passing attack has averaged 246.18 yards per game, more than the Patriots give up through the air (240.88 YPG on average).

In comparing defenses, the New England Patriots own the league's No. 20-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 120.63 yards per game when on the road. Denver, on the other hand, rates No. 10 this week in generating rushing yards at home.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

In New England's last outing, Tom Brady threw for 302 yards to lead the Patriots over Kansas City 27-20 at Gillette Stadium.

In their last game, the Broncos were Divisional Playoff winners, coming out on top of the Steelers by a score of 23-16.

Betting Trends
  • New England is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games
  • New England is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 7 games
  • New England is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
  • Denver is 0-3-2 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Denver is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games
  • Denver is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

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