Browns Bills Week 5 Odds Preview
The Cleveland Browns were left for dead after dropping their first two games and trading away star running back Trent Richardson. But a change of quarterback seems to have sparked the Browns, who have won two straight heading into Thursday’s home game against the Buffalo Bills.
The Browns are 4.5-point favorites over the Bills. Brian Hoyer will make his third straight start at quarterback for Cleveland. He’s thrown five touchdowns in wins over the Minnesota Vikings and Cincinnati Bengals.
Buffalo held off the Baltimore Ravens last week, but lost starting running back C.J. Spiller to injury. Bettors will want to keep a close eye on Spiller’s status.The Bills are second in the league in rushing, but 28th in passing behind rookie quarterback E.J. Manuel.
The two teams met last September, with the Bills pulling out a 24-14 win at Cleveland. The last three meetings have stayed UNDER the total.
The Bills have struggled to a 2-14 SU mark in their past 16 road games and are also just 2-8 ATS past 10 as road underdog. Of note for totals bettors, the UNDER is 12-3 past 15 Cleveland home games.
This game matches up the No. 18 (Browns) and the No. 21 (Bills) teams in the league, according to our current NFL Power Rankings at OddsShark. A 19-17 result in favor of the Browns is predicted by handicapping models.
In their last action, Buffalo was a 23-20 winner at home against the Ravens. They covered the 3.5-point spread as underdogs, while the combined score (43) was profitable news for UNDER bettors. Brian Hoyer threw a pair of TD passes in Cleveland's last match, defeating Cincinnati 17-6 in Week 4 action on Sunday.
How They Match Up:
The game also pits Cleveland's No. 29-ranked offense, averaging 16 PPG, against a Bills defense that ranks No. 18 this week at 23.25 PPG. The Browns aerial game is averaging 247.75 yards per game, less than the Bills secondary allows through the air, 277 YPG per game.
In comparing defenses, the Bills own the league's No. 17-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 116.5 yards per game when on the road. Cleveland, on the other hand, rates No. 27 this week in generating rushing yards at home.
A few Bills at Browns trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games
Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Cleveland is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
Buffalo at Cincinnati, Sunday, October 13th
Cleveland at Detroit, Sunday, October 13th