OddsShark Top Sportsbooks

Player Prop Bet Picks: Thursday Night Football

It’s Week 11 and the Pittsburgh Steelers are to play just their fourth home game when they host the Tennessee Titans in Thursday night’s short-week showdown.

The lack of home cooking could explain Ben Roethlisberger’s clunky 2017 season to date. His home/away splits for his career are impressive. Although he’s played in four more away games, he’s tossed 41 more touchdown passes at home (177:136). With the Titans rush defense holding the opposition to 3.6 yards per carry, Le’Veon Bell averaging just 3.3 yards per rush over the past three games, the Titans having allowed 17 pass touchdowns in nine games, and the Steelers favored by 7 points, I expect Big Ben to pad his home/away splits tonight.

All prop odds courtesy of Bovada.

Antonio Brown Receiving Yards O/U 90 ½
The Bet: OVER (-125)
Antonio Brown Receptions O/U 6 ½
The Bet: OVER (-125)
Touchdown Anytime
The Bet: Antonio Brown (-150)

Typically, I’m one who embraces diversification. However, tonight’s matchup has all the makings of another Antonio Brown highlight-reel performance. After torching the Chiefs and Jaguars for 150+ receiving yards in back-to-back games, Roethlisberger’s top target has been held to 60.6 receiving yards per game the past three contests.

Pro Football Focus suggests Brown has the third-most favorable matchup this week as he’s up against cornerback LeShaun Sims, who has allowed 24 catches on 30 targets this season.

Plus, with JuJu Smith-Schuster scoring in three straight games and starting to see a larger slice of the target pie, it forces the Titans secondary to pick their poison. Brown bounces back in a big way.

Eric Decker Receptions O/U 2 ½
The Bet: UNDER (-115)

Decker is a forgotten man. With Corey Davis back from injury, Delanie Walker (wrist) removed from the Week 11 injury report and Rishard Matthews pacing the passing game in a rush-first, rush-second offense, the veteran receiver’s odds of seeing 3+ targets in a subpar matchup are slim.

Reason to Fade: garbage time production

Titans Successful Field Goals O/U 1 ½
The Bet: OVER (-115)

Ryan Succop has split the uprights on 12 of 13 field-goal attempts between 40 and 49 yards – most in the NFL. He’s made two or more field goals in five of nine games. Tennessee is notorious for wearing out the turf between the 30s. For this OVER to hit, however, I do believe Succop will need to convert two before halftime.

Archived Articles

With so much attention on, first, David Johnson’s injury and, later, Carson Palmer’s broken arm, the Arizona Cardinals’ defensive regression has slipped under the radar somewhat or not been hammered on as NFL pundits tend to do.

The Cardinals ranked second in total defense, fourth in pass defense and ninth in rush defense last season. They ranked fourth in takeaways and first in sacks (48). Now, to be fair, they were bit by free agency (see: Calais Campbell’s 10.5 sacks for JAX) and the injury bug, but their loss could be bettors’ gain. This season, Arizona ranks 23rd in total defense and 27th in scoring defense at 25.1 points allowed per game. For context, the 0-8 Browns allow 25.3 points per game.

Tonight, the Cardinals face one of the most explosive offenses of the past three weeks in Seattle. The Seahawks have averaged 6.4 yards per play during that stretch – fourth-most in the NFL. While the O/U 41 may suggest a lack of fireworks, if they do come it’ll be via the arm and legs of Russell Wilson.

All prop odds courtesy of Bovada.

Russell Wilson Pass Yards O/U 265 ½
The Bet: OVER (-140)


Russell Wilson Rush Yards O/U 29 ½
The Bet: OVER (-130)

Despite the Seahawks’ sieve of an offensive line, part of me truly believes Russell Wilson has enjoyed scrambling and making chicken soup out of chicken droppings on broken plays. Due to the necessity to survive and advance, the sixth-year quarterback has been able to showcase his mobility skills and arm strength on a weekly basis. Now, some of those deep shots downfield do come with a wink and a prayer before the jump ball is won, but over the past three games, he’s averaging 361 passing yards with nine touchdowns and three interceptions and has eclipsed 30 or more rushing yards in five of eight games this season.

Arizona just allowed C.J. Beathard to pass for 294 yards and run for 16. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 296 passing yards per game with eight touchdowns the past four games against the Cardinals.

Note: Although Seattle’s offense has been notoriously slow out of the gate, the best odds for “first half winning margin” are the Seahawks 13 or more points (+300). With not much of a running game, this could translate into huge numbers for Wilson early.

Drew Stanton Completions O/U 19 ½
The Bet: UNDER (-130)


Drew Stanton Touchdown Passes O/U 1 ½
The Bet: UNDER (-175)

The Arizona QB2 wishes he could face San Francisco every week. He’s 5-1 with six touchdown passes against the Niners lifetime. The problem is, of his four games with multiple touchdown passes, three have come against San Francisco with the fourth against the Lions in 2014.

On top of that, the last time Stanton completed more than 19 passes in a game also came in 2014. (ATL / DET). The only other time it happened was during an overtime win at Tampa Bay in 2010. Seattle is holding opposing quarterbacks to 20 completions per game and they’ve faced Rodgers, Goff, Watson and Cousins. The secondary has allowed nine touchdowns – fifth-fewest in the NFL.

Adrian Peterson Rush Yards O/U 69 ½
The Bet: OVER (-125)

Pump up the volume!

It’s all about A.P.’s play share when it comes to this prop.

While I find it hard to believe that Peterson will carry the ball 35+ times for a second consecutive week, it’s likely he’ll finish with about 25 rush attempts against the Seahawks. If that’s the case, all we need is 3.0 yards per attempt against a rush defense allowing 4.3.

Reason to Fade: Seahawks build too big a lead and Stanton is forced to pass most of the second half.