Nikola Jokic

NBA Playoffs 2024 Expert Picks & Preview: Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Game 6

Our NBA experts Christopher Walder, Nick Holz, and David Caraviello are here throughout the playoffs offering up their spread, moneyline, OVER/UNDER, and player prop picks for all of the action. 

The reigning champion Denver Nuggets have the Minnesota Timberwolves on the ropes, and can send Minnesota packing with a victory in Game 6 on Thursday night to advance to the Western Conference finals.

Let's take a closer look at all expert picks for this potential closeout matchup at the Target Center.

(Related Link) 2024 NBA Playoff Series Prices

NBA Expert Picks Results: Second Round

ExpertRecordUnits
Nick Holz9-10-1.08
David Caraviello8-11-2.73
Christopher Walder8-12-1-3.22

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Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Game 6 Preview & Picks

Matchup Page: Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:30 p.m. ET

Same-Game Parlay: Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Game 6

TeamSpreadMoneyTotal
Denver Nuggets+2.5 (-110)+110O 204.5 (-107)
Minnesota Timberwolves-2.5 (-110)-130U 204.5 (-105)

Christopher Walder's Pick: Denver Nuggets ML (+110)

Denver took Minnesota's best punch in Games 1 and 2, losing by seven points in the opener and then just two days later. They were left for dead in the wake of an incredible defensive showing by the Timberwolves, with several basketball pundits ready to anoint them the future titleholders before they've even won the series.

The response the Nuggets gave across the next three outings was magical, winning all three by an average of 16.6 points. Most Valuable Player winner and now three-time recipient of the award Nikola Jokic has made the newly-crowned Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert look out of his depth, and Jamal Murray appears to be fully healthy after a calf injury hobbled him in the first round and beyond.

We can expect Anthony Edwards to bring the heat and carry the Timberwolves' offense once again on Thursday, just like he did in Game 4 when he dropped 44 points albeit in a losing effort. It now comes down to the players around him and who's willing to put up more of a fight with the season on the line. Karl-Anthony Towns may be dealing with some nagging injuries, Gobert looks psychologically defeated at least, and Sixth Man of the Year Naz Reid hasn't had an impact performance since the opening two contests. 

With that being said, nothing seems to faze the Nuggets in the slightest. It wasn't that long ago when the team overcame a 3-1 deficit in back-to-back rounds, so pressure is nothing new. You have to think they want to close out Minnesota and avoid a Game 7, even if it's in their own backyard.  

It also helps that since Christmas Day, Denver is a staggering 13-0 SU in games played after allowing 103 points or fewer the prior game, which it just accomplished in Game 5 with the Timberwolves only scoring 97 points.

David Caraviello's Pick: Denver Nuggets ATS +2.5 (-110)

The reigning champion Nuggets have won and covered three straight games in this series after falling into an 0-2 hole. None of those games have exactly been nail-biters at the end, with Denver winning by 27, 12 and 15 points respectively.

The Nuggets have unlocked Minnesota’s stifling defense by taking ball-handling duties off Jamal Murray, and Nikola Jokic has returned to MVP form with a vengeance. To say the least, it would be a surprise if we have to go back to Denver for Game 7.

Christopher Walder's Pick: Michael Porter Jr. OVER 14.5 PTS + AST (+100)

Call this sheer optimism if you will, but at plus money, the odds are calling my name with this combo player prop for Michael Porter Jr. as he looks to get out of this rut he's been in over his last two appearances.

The 25-year-old marksman scored just 10 points in Games 4 and 5 combined, while also falling UNDER this prop of 14.5 on both occasions. He registered just a single assist in each game, as well, so his scoring will need to carry this to an OVER on Thursday. 

If we're to expect a stronger defensive showing out of someone like Gobert, than Jokic will need shooters to start connecting from distance in order to keep pace and alleviate some of the load. Enter Porter Jr, who did score 21 points in Game 3 with four triples on five attempts, so we've seen him deliver on the road against the Timberwolves already.

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