Top 25 College Basketball Betting Preview: Ole Miss Carries Strong ATS Record Into SEC Play

The new year in college basketball brings the heart of conference play, where opponents get more familiar, games get more physical, and the long winter slog toward tournament time begins in earnest. And for teams that piled up glitzy records throughout November and December, it’s when the real test begins.

That’s certainly the case for Ole Miss, which entered this week as one of three remaining unbeaten teams in college basketball, and having beaten the spread in seven of its previous eight games. But the Rebels have piled up wins and covers against the 280th most difficult schedule in the country, according to the analytics gurus at KenPom.com, having defeated just one team (Memphis) that’s spent time in the Top 25 so far this season. Everything changes for the Rebels on Saturday, when they open SEC play at No. 5 Tennessee.

Meanwhile there’s Illinois, which entered the week at 10-2 and having covered six of its last eight. But the Illini’s schedule is ranked 194th, and Illinois has one victory over a ranked opponent (Florida Atlantic, on a neutral court). Brad Underwood’s team has a mammoth Big 10 showdown set for Friday night at No. 1 Purdue—when Illinois is almost certain to be without star guard Terrence Shannon Jr., who’s averaging 21.7 points per game but has been suspended indefinitely due to a rape charge.

Clemson, which entered the week at 11-1, hasn’t played a cupcake schedule—the Tigers have quality wins over Alabama, TCU and Pittsburgh, and handed in-state rival South Carolina its only loss entering the week. Clemson has also been very good to bettors, having covered in four straight and seven of nine entering the week. But the reality of ACC play sets in Saturday, when No. 8 North Carolina comes to Littlejohn Coliseum. While the teams have split their last six games, the Tigers haven’t beaten a top-10 UNC team since 2001.

Conference play is no joke: teams have less time between games to prepare for opponents, and the physical grind is demanding. Just look at former No. 1 Arizona, which was hammered 100-82 at 12.5-point underdog Stanford on the second leg of a Friday-Sunday Pac-12 road swing. There’s also Connecticut, which looked like the best team in the country in beating North Carolina and Gonzaga, and then was humbled at 7.5-point underdog Seton Hall and hung on for a close win over 11.5-point underdog St. John’s at home.

Savvy college basketball bettors know: this is when the real season begins. No more taking a week off between games, no more resting players during blowouts over cupcakes, no more playing every tough matchup on a neutral floor. Teams’ fortunes can take a stark turn, for good or for bad, as one type of momentum or another takes hold. And with that, here are some notable sports betting winners and losers from the season’s past few weeks.

Winners

Duke: Are we completely sold on the Blue Devils? Not quite, though they have righted the ship since back-to-back losses to Arkansas and Georgia Tech, winning and covering in four straight to enter the week. Guard Tyrese Proctor is back from his ankle injury, a win over a very good Baylor team was a good sign, and there’s not a scary ACC game on the slate until Clemson late this month.

James Madison: JMU keeps winning, and keeps beating the spread. The Dukes entered the week as one of three remaining unbeaten teams in the nation, with a 13-0 record and covers in six of their last eight. The Sun Belt isn’t a great league this year—only one other team, Appalachian State, is in the top 100 at KenPom.com—so get ready for a lot of large point spreads in conference games involving JMU.

Auburn: The Tigers cracked the Top 25 Monday on the back of a winning streak that stood at five games as of the beginning of the week. They covered four times in that span, including an impressive blowout of USC as 8.5-point favorites. Auburn will be challenged right out of the gate in the SEC, with games against likely NCAA tournament teams Arkansas and Texas A&M.

Losers

Gonzaga: Where have you gone, Drew Timme? The proud Bulldogs entering the week had lost three of five and failed to cover in all five games during that span. The early-season schedule as usual has been brutally difficult, and none of the Zags’ losses have been bad ones. But can a team with little to no perimeter game routinely cover big spreads in the West Coast Conference? We’ll see.

Creighton: Likewise, the Bluejays are feeling the brunt of a tough early-season schedule that ran headlong into the start of Big East play. The result: to enter the week, Creighton had lost three of four and failed to cover in four straight. Granted, getting Villanova and Marquette back-to-back would be difficult for anybody, and the grind only continues with a game against resurgent Providence on Saturday.

Tennessee: Make no mistake, the Volunteers are a legit top-10 team capable of being a very high seed in the NCAA tournament and making a deep run in March. But if you’re betting Tennessee against the spread, you’re taking a bath. The Vols entered the week having failed to cover seven of eight, with potentially challenging games against Ole Miss and Mississippi State to start the SEC slate. Stick to the moneyline.

Upset Alert

Some games involving Top 25 teams to watch this week as potential point-spread upsets:

Marquette at Seton Hall: Shaheen Holloway has something going in South Orange, where the Pirates had won three of four and covered in two of three to start the week. That span includes a 15-point victory over Connecticut as an 8-point home underdog, meaning the trip east could be a challenge for a Marquette team that’s won and covered in two straight.

TCU at Kansas: Despite their glittering overall record, the Jayhawks continue to be dogs against the spread, covering in just three of their last 11 entering the week. They’ve covered as a double-digit favorite just once since early November. TCU meanwhile has covered five of six, and is very capable of doing the same in the Phog.

Texas Tech at Texas: Speaking of ranked teams that are garbage against the spread, meet the Longhorns, who’ve covered just three of their last 12 against a schedule KenPom.com ranks 321st nationally. The Red Raiders will go to Austin having won six straight, covered four times over that span, and very capable of pulling the upset on the road.

Player Prop Watch

Some players on Top 25 teams to watch for potential prop bets, should they be made available:

Top 25 Pick 3

Purdue to cover versus Illinois:

The Illini may have clobbered Fairleigh Dickinson in its first game without Shannon, but it’s a far different challenge for Illinois to contend at the nation’s No. 1 team without its best player. The Boilermakers have been consistently strong against one of the nation’s toughest schedules, and had covered four or six entering the week.

SMU to cover at Memphis:

The Tigers have played a lot of close games, and won most of them with the exception of a three-point defeat to Ole Miss. Against the spread, though, they’re somewhat less reliable, having covered just three of their past eight entering the week. SMU entered having won four of five, and covering in all of those games—twice as underdogs, which the Mustangs will be again in Memphis.

Texas Tech to cover at Texas:

The Longhorns have lost by double-digits to the only two good teams they’ve played (Marquette and UConn) and struggled to cover against most of the bad ones. Meanwhile Grant McCasland has injected new life into a Red Raiders program that’s been rebuilt through the transfer portal, and has been better against the spread than their more famous neighbors in burnt orange.