March Madness: The Round of 64 Trends
The Round of 64 at the 2014 NCAA Tournament could not have had a much more balanced result for sportsbooks, with favorites covering the spread in 15 of the 32 games, underdogs beating the number 15 times, and pushes resulting twice.
Of the 15 dogs that covered, seven won straight-up, including the 14th-seeded Mercer Bears upsetting the third-seeded Duke Blue Devils 78-71 as 12.5-point underdogs. While Mercer’s big victory was the largest by a dog in the round, the six other upset victims were all favored by less than seven points.
The Big 12’s Oklahoma Sooners and Oklahoma State Cowboys were two more favorites to go down in the opening round of March Madness in 2014, but both of them closed at -3.5 in losses to the 12th-seeded North Dakota State Bison (80-75) and eighth-seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs (85-77).
One upset that nearly happened and would have altered the entire bracket in the Round of 64 was the 10th-seeded St. Joseph’s Hawks nearly beating the seventh-seeded and eventual national champion Connecticut Huskies as 5.5-point underdogs.
The Hawks led the Huskies by five points with less than five minutes remaining in regulation before falling 89-81 in overtime. UConn ended up running the table with a perfect 6-0 mark against the spread despite being an underdog in each of five games the rest of the way.
In addition, the UNDER was a small winner yet again by going 17-15 through the first 32 games in 2014. From 2010-2012, the UNDER went 56-37-3 to cash for bettors at a 60-percent rate. Interestingly, the UNDER was 10-5 in games covered by the favorite.
Check out the 2014 Round of 64 March Madness Betting Results below. The odds are for Team2. Where the fave-dog category has brackets it means that the underdog team won the game SU.
|Stephen F. Austin||77||VCU||75||-6||134.5||12||5||O||(D)|
|NC Central||75||Iowa State||93||-8.5||145||14||3||O||F|
|North Dakota State||80||Oklahoma||75||-3.5||151||12||5||O||(D)|
|New Mexico State||69||San Diego State||73||-8||124||13||4||O||D|
|Cal Poly||37||Wichita State||64||-17||125.5||16||1||U||F|
|NC State||80||Saint Louis||83||-3||131.5||12||5||O||P|
Favorites got the best of underdogs in the Round of 64 of the 2012 NCAA Tournament, but when the dogs bit, they bit hard. Round of 64 betting trends show that the chalk went 18-14 ATS in 32 games in 2012. But in those 14 games where the underdogs covered, they won outright 11 times.
It included the biggest upset in March Madness history when No. 15 Norfolk State took out No. 2 Missouri as a 21.5-point underdog. It also included No. 15 Lehigh's upset of second-seeded Duke as 11-point underdogs, and VCU's win over Wichita State as 7.5-point underdogs.
Favorites were just 13-19 ATS a year earlier and 10 of those 19 covers were outright wins by the dogs. In 2010, favorites were 13-18-1 ATS, with underdogs winning outright 11 times in those 18 covers. Over three seasons where underdogs covered the spread they won outright at a clip of 11-3, 10-9, and 11-7 (for a total of 32-19).
The story is different when it comes to totals where UNDERs have prevailed at a money-making clip. In 2012, totals were 20-11-1 favoring the UNDER. It was 18-12-2 favoring the UNDER in 2011, and 18-14 in 2010 for a three-year total of 56-37-3.
Check out the 2012 Round of 64 March Madness Betting Results below. The odds are for Team2. Where the fave-dog category has brackets it means that the underdog team won the game SU.
|Colorado St||41||Murray St||58||-5||138||11||6||UNDER||F|
|Southern Miss||64||Kansas St||70||-5.5||134||9||8||PUSH||F|
|Long Beach St||68||New Mexico||75||-4.5||138.5||12||5||OVER||F|
|South Dakota St||60||Baylor||68||-7.5||140.5||14||3||UNDER||F|
|New Mexico St||66||Indiana||79||-6||155.5||13||4||UNDER||F|
|NC State||79||San Diego St||65||2.5||138.5||11||6||OVER||F|
|St. Bonaventure||63||Florida St||66||-6.5||130||14||3||UNDER||D|
|Long Island||67||Michigan St||89||-19||153||16||1||OVER||F|