March Madness: The Round of 64 Trends

The Round of 64 at the 2014 NCAA Tournament could not have had a much more balanced result for sportsbooks, with favorites covering the spread in 15 of the 32 games, underdogs beating the number 15 times, and pushes resulting twice.

Of the 15 dogs that covered, seven won straight-up, including the 14th-seeded Mercer Bears upsetting the third-seeded Duke Blue Devils 78-71 as 12.5-point underdogs. While Mercer’s big victory was the largest by a dog in the round, the six other upset victims were all favored by less than seven points.

The Big 12’s Oklahoma Sooners and Oklahoma State Cowboys were two more favorites to go down in the opening round of March Madness in 2014, but both of them closed at -3.5 in losses to the 12th-seeded North Dakota State Bison (80-75) and eighth-seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs (85-77).

One upset that nearly happened and would have altered the entire bracket in the Round of 64 was the 10th-seeded St. Joseph’s Hawks nearly beating the seventh-seeded and eventual national champion Connecticut Huskies as 5.5-point underdogs.

The Hawks led the Huskies by five points with less than five minutes remaining in regulation before falling 89-81 in overtime. UConn ended up running the table with a perfect 6-0 mark against the spread despite being an underdog in each of five games the rest of the way.

In addition, the UNDER was a small winner yet again by going 17-15 through the first 32 games in 2014. From 2010-2012, the UNDER went 56-37-3 to cash for bettors at a 60-percent rate. Interestingly, the UNDER was 10-5 in games covered by the favorite.

Check out the 2014 Round of 64 March Madness Betting Results below. The odds are for Team2. Where the fave-dog category has brackets it means that the underdog team won the game SU.

Team1 Score Team2 Score Odds Total Seed Seed OU Fave/Dog
Albany 55 Florida 67 -21.5 120 16 1 O D
Colorado 48 Pittsburgh 77 -6.5 126 8 9 U F
Stephen F. Austin 77 VCU 75 -6 134.5 12 5 O (D)
Tulsa 59 UCLA 76 -8 147 13 4 U F
Dayton 60 Ohio State 59 -6.5 131 11 6 U (D)
Western Michigan 53 Syracuse 77 -13 127.5 14 3 U F
Stanford 58 New Mexico 53 -4.5 135.5 10 7 U (D)
Eastern Kentucky 69 Kansas 80 -13 152.5 15 2 U D
Coastal Carolina 59 Virginia 70 -20 120 16 1 O D
George Washington 66 Memphis 71 -4 142 9 8 U F
Harvard 61 Cincinnati 57 -3 121.5 12 5 U (D)
Delaware 78 Michigan State 93 -14 154 13 4 O F
Providence 77 North Carolina 79 -4.5 142.5 11 6 O D
NC Central 75 Iowa State 93 -8.5 145 14 3 O F
Saint Joseph's 81 Connecticut 89 -5.5 132 10 7 O F
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 53 Villanova 73 -16.5 138 15 2 U F
Weber State 59 Arizona 68 -20 127.5 16 1 U D
Gonzaga 85 Oklahoma State 77 -3.5 138.5 8 9 O (D)
North Dakota State 80 Oklahoma 75 -3.5 151 12 5 O (D)
New Mexico State 69 San Diego State 73 -8 124 13 4 O D
Nebraska 60 Baylor 74 -3.5 131 11 6 O F
Louisiana-Lafayette 66 Creighton 76 -13.5 155.5 14 3 U D
BYU 68 Oregon 87 -5 157 10 7 U F
American 35 Wisconsin 75 -13.5 121 15 2 U F
Cal Poly 37 Wichita State 64 -17 125.5 16 1 U F
Kansas State 49 Kentucky 56 -6 131.5 9 8 U F
NC State 80 Saint Louis 83 -3 131.5 12 5 O P
Manhattan 64 Louisville 71 -16 141.5 13 4 U D
Massachusetts 67 Tennessee 86 -6 137 6 11 O F
Mercer 78 Duke 71 -12.5 141.5 14 3 O (D)
Arizona State 85 Texas 87 -2 139.5 10 7 O P
Wofford 40 Michigan 57 -15 128 15 2 U F

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Favorites got the best of underdogs in the Round of 64 of the 2012 NCAA Tournament, but when the dogs bit, they bit hard. Round of 64 betting trends show that the chalk went 18-14 ATS in 32 games in 2012. But in those 14 games where the underdogs covered, they won outright 11 times.

It included the biggest upset in March Madness history when No. 15 Norfolk State took out No. 2 Missouri as a 21.5-point underdog. It also included No. 15 Lehigh's upset of second-seeded Duke as 11-point underdogs, and VCU's win over Wichita State as 7.5-point underdogs.

Favorites were just 13-19 ATS a year earlier and 10 of those 19 covers were outright wins by the dogs. In 2010, favorites were 13-18-1 ATS, with underdogs winning outright 11 times in those 18 covers. Over three seasons where underdogs covered the spread they won outright at a clip of 11-3, 10-9, and 11-7 (for a total of 32-19).

The story is different when it comes to totals where UNDERs have prevailed at a money-making clip. In 2012, totals were 20-11-1 favoring the UNDER. It was 18-12-2 favoring the UNDER in 2011, and 18-14 in 2010 for a three-year total of 56-37-3.

Check out the 2012 Round of 64 March Madness Betting Results below. The odds are for Team2. Where the fave-dog category has brackets it means that the underdog team won the game SU.

Team1 Score Team2 Score Odds Total Seed Seed OU Fave/Dog
Colorado St 41 Murray St 58 -5 138 11 6 UNDER F
Southern Miss 64 Kansas St 70 -5.5 134 9 8 PUSH F
Davidson 62 Louisville 69 -5.5 139.5 13 4 UNDER F
Montana 49 Wisconsin 73 -8.5 117 13 4 OVER F
BYU 68 Marquette 88 -5.5 154 14 3 OVER F
UNC Asheville 65 Syracuse 72 -15.5 147.5 16 1 UNDER D
Long Beach St 68 New Mexico 75 -4.5 138.5 12 5 OVER F
Harvard 70 Vanderbilt 79 -5.5 123.5 12 5 OVER F
Western Kentucky 66 Kentucky 81 -26.5 136.5 16 1 OVER D
VCU 62 Wichita St 59 -7.5 137.5 12 5 UNDER (D)
West Virginia 54 Gonzaga 77 2 133 10 7 UNDER (D)
South Dakota St 60 Baylor 68 -7.5 140.5 14 3 UNDER F
UConn 64 Iowa St 77 1.5 137 9 8 OVER F
New Mexico St 66 Indiana 79 -6 155.5 13 4 UNDER F
Loyola 59 Ohio St 78 -17.5 131.5 15 2 OVER F
Colorado 68 UNLV 64 -5.5 136.5 11 6 UNDER (D)
Texas 59 Cincinnati 65 -3.5 129.5 11 6 UNDER F
NC State 79 San Diego St 65 2.5 138.5 11 6 OVER F
Alabama 57 Creighton 58 1 136 9 8 UNDER (D)
Virginia 45 Florida 71 -2.5 122.5 10 7 UNDER F
St. Bonaventure 63 Florida St 66 -6.5 130 14 3 UNDER D
Belmont 59 Georgetown 74 -3.5 137 14 3 UNDER F
Vermont 58 North Carolina 77 -15.5 144.5 16 1 UNDER F
Norfolk St 86 Missouri 84 -21 144.5 15 2 OVER (D)
Saint Louis 61 Memphis 54 -2.5 127 9 8 UNDER (D)
Lehigh 75 Duke 70 -11 148.5 15 2 UNDER (D)
Ohio 65 Michigan 60 -5.5 125.5 13 4 UNDER (D)
Purdue 72 St. Mary's 69 -2 141.5 10 7 UNDER (D)
Long Island 67 Michigan St 89 -19 153 16 1 OVER F
Xavier 67 Notre Dame 63 -2 123.5 10 7 OVER (D)
South Florida 58 Temple 44 -3 120.5 12 5 UNDER (D)
Detroit 50 Kansas 65 -13.5 143 15 2 UNDER F