First-Round Bracket Trends
Favorites got the best of underdogs in the first round of the 2012 bracket, but when the dogs bit, they bit hard.
First-round betting trends show that the chalk went 18-14 ATS in 32 games in 2012. But in those 14 games where the underdogs covered, they won outright 11 times.
It included the biggest upset in March Madness history when No. 15 Norfolk State took out No. 2 Missouri as a 21.5-point dog.
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It also included No. 15 Lehigh's upset of second-seeded Duke as 11-point underdogs and VCU's win over Wichita State as 7.5-point underdogs.
Favorites were just 13-19 ATS a year earlier and 10 of those 19 covers were outright wins by the dogs.
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In 2010, favorites were 13-18-1 ATS, with underdogs winning outright 11 times in those 18 covers. Over three seasons, where underdogs cover the spread, they win outright at a clip of 11-3, 10-9, and 11-7 (32-19).
"It means, from a historical standpoint, that it might be a better idea to bet underdogs on the moneyline since the payout is better," said Mike Pickett of OddsShark.com.
The story is different when it comes to totals where UNDERs have prevailed at a money-making clip.
In 2012, totals were 19-12-1 favoring UNDER. It was 18-12-2 favoring the UNDER in 2011 and 18-14 in 2010 for a three-year total of 55-38-3.
Check out last year's first-round March Madness trends and results. Where the fave-dog category is bolded, it means the underdog won the game SU. Odds are for Team2.
|Colorado St||41||Murray St||58||-5||138||11||6||UNDER||F|
|Southern Miss||64||Kansas St||70||-5.5||134||9||8||PUSH||F|
|Long Beach St||68||New Mexico||75||-4.5||138.5||12||5||OVER||F|
|South Dakota St||60||Baylor||68||-7.5||140.5||14||3||UNDER||F|
|New Mexico St||66||Indiana||79||-6||155.5||13||4||UNDER||F|
|NC State||79||San Diego St||65||2.5||138.5||11||6||OVER||F|
|St. Bonaventure||63||Florida St||66||-6.5||130||14||3||UNDER||D|
|Long Island||67||Michigan St||89||-19||153||16||1||OVER||F|