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NFL Week 11 Betting Primer

Joe Osborne Updated on: Oct 17, 2023 3:39 PM ET

Do you want to be a big baller this week? The answer is clearly YES! This doesn’t just happen automatically, though — you’ve got to put in some work! Luckily, I’ve done some of that work for you and hopefully we’ll put that grimy, disgusting bookie where he belongs — the poorhouse!

Most of the betting tools I discuss in this article each week are specific to the spread, but I’ve recently been relying on a method to predict totals that I’ve had some success with.

Basically, you look for a totals trend such as this example from Week 10: The total has gone UNDER in six of the Buccaneers' last seven games at home. In those seven games, I determine what the average score was and compare it to the total for the team’s upcoming game. In the case of this Bucs example, the average combined score in those games was 30.9 and the total for their game vs the Jets was 44. As a result, I placed a bet on the UNDER and the teams combined to score just 25 points in that game. There are multiple standout cases for this below, so keep your eyes peeled. 

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @JTFOz for the sexiest numbers in sports betting, and as always, KEEP CHASING THAT PAPER!

    Rams at Vikings
    • The Vikings are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 home games.
    • Over their last three games, the Rams are ranked second in the NFL in net yards per play.
    • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Rams' last 11 games against the Vikings.
    • The Rams are averaging a league-high 37.4 points per game on the road.
    • The Rams are 1-5 SU in their last six games on the road against the Vikings.
    • The Rams are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games as underdog.
    • The Vikings are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games after consecutive ATS wins.
    • The Vikings are 0-3 SU in their last three games on a five-game SU winning streak.
    • The Vikings are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games at home against teams with winning records.
    • The total has gone UNDER in 15 of the Vikings' last 21 games at home after winning their most recent home game.
    • The total has gone UNDER in 13 of the Rams' last 18 games in the early afternoon.
    • The Rams are 6-18-1 SU in their last 25 games on the road against teams with winning records.
    Ravens at Packers
    • The Ravens are 12-3 SU and ATS in their last 15 games after a bye.
    • The Ravens are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games against the Packers.
    • Over their last three games, the Packers are allowing the second-most passing yards per game (315).
    • The total has gone OVER in 13 of the Packers' last 16 games. The average combined score in those games was 50.9.
    • The Ravens are 0-4 SU in their last four games on the road against the Packers.
    • The Packers are 18-6-1 SU in their last 25 games at home against teams with losing records.
    • The Packers are 3-8 SU and ATS in their last 11 games in November.
    • The Ravens are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games as road favorites.
    • The total has gone OVER in the Ravens' last five games. The average combined score in those games was 44.2.
    Redskins at Saints
    • Over their last three games, the Saints rank 1st in the NFL in net yards per play. Washington is 27th over that span.
    • The total has gone OVER in 12 of the Saints' last 17 games at home. The average combined score in those games was 63.
    • The Redskins are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last five games against the Saints.
    • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Redskins' last nine games against the Saints.
    • The Redskins are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games on the road.
    • The Redskins are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs.
    • The Saints are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six games in the early afternoon.
    • The Saints are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as favorite.
    • The total has gone OVER in six of the Redskins' last eight games on the road. The average combined score in those games was 50.9.
    • The Redskins are 1-8 SU in their last nine games on the road in November.
    • The Redskins are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games on the road against teams with winning records.
    Buccaneers at Dolphins
    • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Dolphins' last eight games at home. The average combined score in those games was 49.
    • Over their last three games, the Dolphins are allowing a league-high 184 rushing yards per game.
    • In road games, Tampa Bay is allowing a league-high 152.2 rushing yards per game compared to just 76 per game at home.
    • The visiting team is 2-7 SU in the last nine games in this matchup.
    • The Buccaneers are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last five games against the Dolphins.
    • The total has gone OVER in the Buccaneers' last three games against the Dolphins.
    • The Dolphins are 15-4 SU in their last 19 games at home after losing their most recent home game.
    • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Buccaneers' last five games after a win.
    • The Buccaneers are 0-6 SU in their last six games on the road.
    • The Buccaneers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games.
    • The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games on a three-game SU losing streak.
    Cardinals at Texans
    • The visiting team is 0-3 SU in the last three games in this matchup.
    • The total has gone OVER in five of the Texans' last seven games. The average combined score in those games was 59.9.
    • Over their last three games, the Texans are allowing a league-high 354.7 passing yards per game.
    • The Texans are 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight games after consecutive losses.
    • The Texans are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games at home against teams with losing records.
    • The total has gone OVER in 11 of the Cardinals' last 14 games on the road.
    • The Cardinals are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games on the road against teams with losing records.
    • The Texans are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games at home after losing their most recent home game.
    • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Cardinals’ last eight games. The average combined score in those games was 40.
    • The Cardinals are 12-5 SU in their last 17 games in November.
    Chiefs at Giants
    • The Chiefs are 10-1 SU and ATS in their last 11 games as road favorites.
    • The last time the Giants were a double-digit home underdog was in 2007.
    • The total has gone OVER in five of the Giants' last seven games. The average combined score in those games was 47.4.
    • The Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after a loss.
    • The Chiefs are 1-4 SU in their last five games against the Giants.
    • The Giants are allowing a league-high 31.5 points per game at home.
    • The Chiefs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against the Giants.
    • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Chiefs' last five games against the Giants.
    • The Giants are 2-12 SU in their last 14 games as home underdogs.
    • The Giants are 10-29 ATS in their last 39 games at home in November.
    • The total has gone OVER in six of the Chiefs' last eight games on the road. The average combined score in those games was 57.4.
    • The Chiefs are 8-1 SU in their last nine games after a loss.
    • The Chiefs are 9-2 SU and ATS in their last 11 games on the road.
    Jaguars at Browns
    • Over their last three games, the Jaguars are ranked third in the NFL in net yards per play. The Browns are ranked 19th over this span.
    • The Browns are averaging a league-low 12 points per game at home. The Jaguars are allowing a league-low 9.2 points per game on the road.
    • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Jaguars' last five games on the road. The average combined score in those games was 37.8.
    • The Jaguars are rushing for a league-best 183 yards per game on the road.
    • The Jaguars are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four games against the Browns.
    • The Jaguars are 5-2 SU in their last seven games on the road against the Browns.
    • The Browns are 1-12 SU and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games at home.
    • The Jaguars are 5-24 SU in their last 29 games on the road.
    • The Browns are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games.
    • The Browns are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as home underdogs.
    • The Jaguars are 6-0 ATS in their last six games against AFC North teams.
    • The Jaguars are 6-22 SU in their last 28 games after a win.
    Lions at Bears
    • The Bears are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as home underdogs.
    • The Lions are 7-1 SU in their last eight games against the Bears.
    • The Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Bears.
    • The total has gone UNDER in the Lions' last three games against the Bears. The average combined score in those games was 37.3.
    • The Bears are 0-6 SU in their last six games vs divisional opponents.
    • The Bears are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games at home.
    • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Bears' last eight games as underdog.
    • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Lions' last 11 games on the road. The average combined score in those games was 41.2.
    • The Lions are 8-0 SU and ATS in their last eight games in November.
    • The Lions are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as favorite.
    • The favored team is 17-1 SU in the last 18 games in this matchup.
    Patriots at Raiders
    • The Patriots are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last four games against the Raiders.
    • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Patriots' last seven games against the Raiders.
    • The total has gone OVER in the Raiders' last seven games against AFC East teams. The average combined score in those games was 54.6.
    • The Raiders are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after a bye.
    • The Raiders are 2-5 SU and 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games.
    • The Patriots are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games.
    • The Patriots are 17-2 SU in their last 19 games in the late afternoon.
    Bengals at Broncos
    • The total has gone OVER in four of the Bengals' last five games against the Broncos.
    • The Bengals are 0-10 SU in their last 10 games on the road against the Broncos.
    • The visiting team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven games in this matchup.
    • The Bengals have rushed for a league-low 46.7 rushing yards per game over their last three games.
    • The Bengals are 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after consecutive losses.
    • The Broncos are 39-10 SU in their last 49 games at home.
    • The Broncos are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games in November.
    • The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Bengals' last 17 games.
    • The Bengals are 1-12 SU in their last 13 games as underdog.
    • The Bengals are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after a loss.
    Bills at Chargers
    • The Bills are 11-1 SU and 11-0-1 ATS in their last 12 games after consecutive losses.
    • The Chargers have been an outright loser in eight of their last 11 games as a home favorite.
    • Over their last three games, the Bills are allowing 182 rushing yards per game.
    • The total has gone UNDER in the Bills' last three games against the Chargers.
    • The Bills are 0-5 SU in their last five games on the road against the Chargers.
    • The visiting team is 1-5 ATS in the last six games in this matchup.
    • The Chargers are 7-0 SU in their last seven games at home after consecutive road games.
    • The Chargers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games at home in November.
    • The total has gone OVER in five of the Chargers' last seven games as home favorites.
    • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Bills' last nine games as road underdogs.
    • The Bills are 1-5 SU in their last six games on the West Coast.
    Eagles at Cowboys
    • Over their last three games, the Eagles are ranked fourth in the NFL in net yards per play. The Cowboys are ranked 21st over that span.
    • The Eagles are allowing a league-low 66.4 rushing yards per game.
    • The visiting team is 6-2 SU in the last eight games in this matchup.
    • The visiting team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 games in this matchup.
    • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Cowboys' last 11 games as underdog. The average combined score in those games was 40.3.
    • The Cowboys are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games at home.
    • The Cowboys are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games at home in November.
    • The Eagles are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs divisional opponents.
    • The total has gone OVER in six of the Eagles' last eight games.
    • The Eagles are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games on the road after winning their most recent road game.
    Falcons at Seahawks
    • The Falcons are 5-2 SU in their last seven games against the Seahawks.
    • The total has gone OVER in six of the Falcons' last seven games against the Seahawks.
    • The Seahawks are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games at night.
    • The Seahawks are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs NFC South teams.
    • The Falcons are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games on the road against the Seahawks.
    • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Seahawks' last five games. The average combined score in those games was 41.
    • The Seahawks are 11-0 SU in their last 11 games on Monday.
    • The Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games when hosting an East Coast team.
    • The Falcons are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games on the road.
    • The Falcons are 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games on the West Coast.
    • The total has gone UNDER in 21 of the Falcons' last 27 games in November.
    Titans at Steelers
    • The Steelers are 8-0 SU in their last eight games at night. Their average win margin in those games was 15 points.
    • The Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games at night.
    • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Steelers' last nine games. The average combined score in those games was 37.2.
    • Over their last three games, the Titans are allowing a league-low 64 rushing yards per game.
    • At home this season, the Steelers are allowing a league-low 112 passing yards per game.
    • The Titans are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games on the road against teams with winning records.
    • The Titans are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a win.
    • The Titans are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games as underdog.
    • The Titans are 3-15 SU in their last 18 games on the road against teams with winning records.
    • The Titans are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games on the road.
    • The Titans are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games in November.
    • The Titans are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games against AFC North teams.
    • The total has gone OVER in six of the Titans' last eight games.

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