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EPL Futures: Is the Race Suddenly Back on?

Don’t look now, Chelsea fans, but it looks like the race for the English Premier League title is back on. Tottenham is now just seven points back after the Blues dropped an unlikely three points to Crystal Palace in their Week 30 fixture and there’s now a glimmer of hope that with eight games remaining, Spurs can make things interesting.

Tottenham does, of course, have a reputation of devastating collapses to uphold and online shop Bovada is still fairly convinced Chelsea will take it as they’ve pegged them as -1400 favorites with Spurs coming back at +1000.

If Manchester City had held on to the draw with Chelsea on Wednesday, the odds of a comeback would be much greater with that likely being the Blues’ most difficult remaining league match. Tottenham and Chelsea both have fairly simple fixture lists down the stretch so Mauricio Pochettino will be hoping his Italian rival Antonio Conte drops more points to squads they should beat handily. It’s definitely possible but it will take a monumental collapse from the league leaders and an unprecedented run from Tottenham, who haven’t won the league since 1961.

The Citizens sit 14 points back and you can officially write them off. They’re being offered at a lofty +6600 line but it’s not at all worth it. This is a two-horse race with the lead pony way out in front.

Premier League: Outright Winner Odds

Odds as of April 6 at Bovada

  • Chelsea -1400
  • Tottenham Hotspur +1000
  • Manchester City +6600
  • Liverpool +8000
  • Manchester United +50000
  • Arsenal +50000

Archived Articles

It’s all over but the crying in a Premier League season where the water has definitely found its level. Chelsea sits an incredible 12 points clear of the second-place Tottenham Hotspur on the table and it would take a collapse similar to the one just experienced by the Atlanta Falcons in the Super Bowl for anyone to catch the Blues.

With most projection algorithms giving Chelsea about a 91 percent likelihood of finishing the task, Bovada has pegged them as -800 favorites, making it nearly impossible to make money on EPL futures for the rest of the season.

Manchester City (+1200) and Tottenham (+1400) are the only squads that books are giving a chance right now and the next closest competitors – Arsenal and Liverpool – have each been given +5000 odds. Pretty grim prospects for everyone other than Chelsea but if they band together, work hard and play as a cohesive unit … ahhh who are we kidding – this thing is done like dinner.

Chelsea has put on an absolute master class this season and Antonio Conte has taken a team that’s not necessarily the most talented in the Premier League to the precipice of yet another title through his motivational style of managing. He and the rest of the Chelsea organization have gotten to where they are now on the back of an EPL record-tying 13-game winning streak from which they've never looked back.

With teams now battling it out for the second and third Champions League spots, there is still plenty of betting interest in futures like who will finish top four, who will finish top six and who will win the EPL Golden Boot. The teams that sit second through sixth are all separated by just five points and with some big matches on the horizon, we could see plenty of shuffling among the squads in the chase pack.

The race to the bottom is also an intriguing one this year with Sunderland, who have been in the top flight since 2007, struggling to stay afloat along with Hull City, Crystal Palace, Middlesbrough and Swansea. Last season’s champs have been on a steady descent to the bottom, on pace to destroy Chelsea’s record for the worst title defense in Premier League history.

Below are the odds for all the futures currently available at Bovada for the Premier League except for Golden Boot winner. Those have their own page that can be found here.

Premier League: Outright Winner Odds

Odds as of February 7 at Bovada

  • Chelsea -800
  • Manchester City +1200
  • Tottenham Hotspur +1400
  • Arsenal +5000
  • Liverpool +5000
  • Manchester United +10000
  • Everton +100000
  • Southampton +100000
  • Leicester City +150000
  • Stoke City +150000
  • Bournemouth +150000
  • West Bromwich Albion +150000
  • Middlesbrough +150000
  • Swansea City +150000
  • West Ham Utd +200000
  • Crystal Palace +200000
  • Watford FC +200000
  • Hull City +200000
  • Sunderland +200000
  • Burnley +250000
To be Relegated

Odds as of February 7 at Bovada

  • Sunderland -300
  • Hull City -125
  • Crystal Palace -110
  • Middlesbrough +135
  • Swansea City +165
  • Leicester City +250
  • Bournemouth +700
  • Burnley +1000
  • Watford +2500
  • Stoke City +4000
  • Southampton +4000
  • West Ham Utd +10000
  • West Bromwich Albion +50000
To Finish Bottom

Odds as of February 7 at Bovada

  • Sunderland +165
  • Hull City +350
  • Crystal Palace +500
  • Middlesbrough +650
  • Swansea City +750
  • Leicester City +1200
  • Burnley +10000
  • Watford +15000
Top 4 Finish

Odds as of February 7 at Bovada

  • Chelsea -10000
  • Tottenham Hotspur -500
  • Manchester City -500
  • Liverpool -110
  • Arsenal -110
  • Manchester Utd +125
  • Everton +5000
  • West Bromwich Albion +100000
  • Southampton +100000
  • Bournemouth +100000
  • Leicester City +100000
  • Stoke City +100000
  • West Ham Utd +100000
Top 6 FInish

Odds as of February 7 at Bovada

  • Liverpool -5000
  • Arsenal -4000
  • Manchester Utd -3300
  • Everton +400
  • West Bromwich Albion +15000
  • West Ham Utd +20000
  • Southampton +50000
  • Stoke City +50000
Top 10 Finish

Odds as of February 7 at Bovada

  • West Bromwich Albion -500
  • West Ham Utd -200
  • Southampton -120
  • Stoke City +120
  • Watford +275
  • Bournemouth +350
  • Burnley +500
  • Leicester City +1000
  • Swansea City +3300
  • Middlesbrough +3300
  • Crystal Palace +5000
To Stay Up

Odds as of February 7 at Bovada

  • Burnley -6600
  • Leicester City -300
  • Middlesbrough -200
  • Swansea City -200
  • Crystal Palace -150
  • Hull City EVEN
  • Sunderland +200
Top Promoted CLub

Odds as of February 7 at Bovada

  • Burnley -300
  • Middlesbrough +400
  • Hull City +500

Archived Articles

Until Tottenham took down Chelsea one game short of breaking the record for the longest Premier League winning streak, set by the Invincible 2001-02 Arsenal team, it looked like the Blues might never lose another match. Thankfully, that did not happen and we can once again open a narrative on EPL futures with Chelsea now in the lead by just five points.

Speaking of Antonio Conte and the Chelsea Blue, updated futures odds at Bovada have them as the clear-cut favorite to win it all at -140 – far worse than the +550 line they were pegged with before it was fully understood what this club could do. I liked Chelsea when they were better than 5/1 to win but with so many games left to play, I find it a tough ask to take a minus-money bet on a line I won’t see a return on until May.

With that said, which teams pop out as possible contenders? I’ve looked at the remaining schedules of each of the other top five teams to see who has the upper leg in EPL futures and considered other factors such as European competition and the current transfer window, which as of this writing has produced few fireworks and has failed to move the needle in any one team’s favor.

Liverpool +450: My prediction at the start of the Premier League season was that the Reds could make a serious run at the title based on their focus being solely on English competition. Well, thanks to the best attack in the Prem, Jurgen Klopp has made me look like a genius. Liverpool now sits within striking distance of the league leaders heading into an away match at Old Trafford and still has its home match to play against the Blues.

The back end of Liverpool’s schedule is an absolute joke and if they stay within five points of Chelsea going into April, they could easily steal the title away from Conte.

Manchester City +700: City currently sits in a points tie with Tottenham at 42 but Spurs have them on goal differential. Bovada marking the City boys at 7/1 is a hollow and transparent trick and I beg you don’t fall into it. Yes, their financial support during the transfer window will be vast but even if they land a golden goose, will they be twice as good as Tottenham? The answer is absolutely not.

Unlike Spurs, City is still alive in Champions League and will have to devote a ton of resources and energy into getting past Monaco. If you compound this with an April that will see them play away matches at the Emirates and Stamford Bridge? I could see this team, which has lacked its usual scoring bite, fall out of the race entirely.

Arsenal +1400: Possibly one of the best squads in the league but fails to get critical results on the road. They’ve gotten just one point out of their last three games away from the Emirates and still have matches to play at White Hart Lane and Stamford Bridge. The final month of their schedule is probably the toughest of all those still in contention and as we all know, Arsenal never finishes strong.

This team is destined for a third- or fourth-place finish, you can pretty much bank on it.

Tottenham +1400: The best value on the board, and I’m not just saying that because I’m a fan of Spurs. This is the most well-rounded club among the elite in England’s top flight and their young roster is improving with every game they notch in their very tight defensive belts. The man formerly known as Dele Alli is coming into his own as a world-class superstar and has a chance to lead this squad to a glorious run to the top of the table.

Now, by no means is this a lock. Tottenham sits seven points back of Chelsea and has an aggravating overarching tendency to fade down the stretch. That said, Spurs have an extremely friendly schedule down the stretch and could be lifting the trophy come May if they add a piece like Ross Barkley. Tottenham is absolutely worth a punt at 14/1.

Manchester United +1600: Jose Mourinho has done a perfectly meh job with a super underwhelming roster. This team isn’t winning anything and I will scold you if you tell me otherwise.

Here’s the entire list of EPL futures:

Premier League: Outright Winner Odds

Odds as of January 12 at Bovada

  • Chelsea -140
  • Liverpool +450
  • Manchester City +700
  • Arsenal +1400
  • Tottenham Hotspur +1400
  • Manchester United +1600
  • Southampton +100000
  • Everton +100000
  • Leicester City +150000
  • Stoke City +150000
  • Bournemouth +150000
  • West Bromwich Albion +150000
  • Middlesbrough +150000
  • Swansea City +150000
  • West Ham Utd +200000
  • Crystal Palace +200000
  • Watford FC +200000
  • Hull City +200000
  • Sunderland +200000
  • Burnley +250000

Archived Articles

The cream is starting to rise in England’s top flight with Week 13 all done and dusted but don’t be fooled – there’s still plenty of value on the table.

At the time of our last update, Manchester City reigned supreme with top odds to take the league but as I not so modestly predicted, Chelsea has drawn even after its seventh consecutive win and is now side by side City with +200 odds to win the Premier League at online shop Bovada.

Liverpool is right behind those two at +300 but as I previously alluded to, this is not a three-horse race, with Arsenal sitting just three points out of first at 28 points.

The Gunners are mysteriously being offered at +800 to end the year as the top club in England and I think this line is more than a little wonky. Arsenal hasn’t lost since its first game of the season and has absolutely shown it has the quality to win the whole thing. In my opinion, Arsene Wenger is one or two defensive pieces away from a title run and lo and behold – we have a transfer window looming.

It’s true that Arsenal’s schedule has been a little soft and they have a tough run of fixtures on their December docket. If they get through the month relatively unscathed and pull off a win at the Etihad, however, their price will skyrocket and you will be ruing the day you decided to pass them up in Premier League futures.

Here’s the entire list of EPL futures:

Premier League: Outright Winner Odds

Odds as of November 28 at Bovada

  • Manchester City +200
  • Chelsea +200
  • Liverpool +300
  • Arsenal +800
  • Tottenham Hotspur +2500
  • Manchester United +3300
  • Everton +50000
  • Leicester City +50000
  • Southampton +50000
  • Crystal Palace +100000
  • West Ham Utd +100000
  • Stoke City +100000
  • West Bromwich Albion +100000
  • Bournemouth +100000
  • Middlesbrough +100000
  • Watford FC +100000
  • Swansea City +150000
  • Hull City +200000
  • Sunderland +200000
  • Burnley +200000

Archived Articles

Premier League teams have all played just under a quarter of their schedules and we are starting to get the picture of where they could end up come year’s end. The big clubs look to have regained their glory, with all the usual suspects residing at or near the top of the lot.

It’s a complete logjam at the top of the table right now between the top five clubs as they are separated by just one point. Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool are tied with 20 apiece while Chelsea and Tottenham trail close behind with 19 points each. Bovada has updated the futures odds with 28 games left to play and some squads have made significant movements.

It will be to no one’s surprise that Pep Guardiola’s City team currently has the best odds to win the Premiership. They sit atop the league on goal differential right now and have lost just one game – to Tottenham Hotspur. Their line has moved from +250 to +125 and I’m going to be avoiding them completely. There is too much parity among the elite teams in England’s top flight this season to extract any value from a number that’s barely plus money.

Despite being the only unbeaten team through their first nine games and sitting one point out of first place, Tottenham’s odds to win the title have actually gotten worse since opening day kickoff and now sit at a round +1000 number. This is the best value you’re going to get from any of the contenders but can Spurs finally put together an entire season of quality football?

Antonio Conte has Chelsea playing incredibly right now and is fresh off stomping on Manchester United in Jose Mourinho’s less than empathic return to Stamford Bridge. Coming into the season I had Chelsea and Man City ranked similarly so it will hardly be a shock to find out I love their +550 odds to win it all.

Speaking of United, they’ve dropped well out of the picture in the odds table as they now have +2000 odds down from the +325 line Bovada was offering prior to the season. It’s always funny to see the Red Devils struggle and this year is no different. Money can’t buy happiness and apparently it can’t buy wins either. This is an incomplete team and I don’t expect them to make a miracle run to the top.

No long-shot value jumps out at me right now because of how well the top teams are playing but if you’re feeling – extraordinarily – lucky, three teams (Burnley, Sunderland and Hull) are all tied at the bottom of the odds table with +200000 lines to win.

Premier League: Outright Winner Odds

Odds as of October 24 at Bovada

  • Manchester City +125
  • Liverpool +330
  • Arsenal +500
  • Chelsea +550
  • Tottenham Hotspur +1000
  • Manchester United +2000
  • Everton +20000
  • Leicester City +25000
  • Southampton +50000
  • Crystal Palace +100000
  • West Ham Utd +100000
  • Stoke City +100000
  • Swansea City +100000
  • West Bromwich Albion +100000
  • Bournemouth +100000
  • Middlesbrough +100000
  • Watford FC +100000
  • Hull City +200000
  • Sunderland +200000
  • Burnley +200000

Archived Articles

We are just two weeks from Premier League kickoff and I can hardly contain myself. Teams are off playing their warm-ups, Arsenal is taking on the MLS All-Star team and Pep Guardiola is settling  into his new digs. Futures lines have been updated after the majority of summer transfers are in the books and the movement has not been insignificant.

Online shop Bovada has a long list of futures to bet on for the upcoming Premier League season and think the battle for supremacy will be a Manchester Derby after the two monster clubs made major improvements to their rosters over the summer.

City (+250) has been the favorite to win the league ever since the season ended and freshly hired Pep Guardiola will have a serious hand in making that happen. Manchester fans had grown tired of Manuel Pellegrini’s tactics and Pep’s attacking style will be a welcome change for the high-octane forwards at City.

United may be a little overpriced at +325. They did make a splash in the transfer market signing Zlatan Ibrahimovic and will, like City, welcome a new manager in Jose Mourinho. That said, Ibrahimovic’s best days are well behind him and United still has major shortcomings at the back end. They don’t have Champions League footy to worry about but I can’t see them finishing higher than second or third place.

Leicester City has, once again, not been given any credit. Oddsmakers have them +3000 to repeat as Premier League champs – much better than the +500000 odds they faced last year – after they retained most of their magical squad outside of their ruthless defender N’Golo Kante, who has seen his rights picked up by Chelsea.

Speaking of the London Club, Chelsea has the third-best odds to win the league this year and are my favorite club to climb back up the ladder and return to Premier League glory. Despite having the worst title defense season in Premier League history, they showed promise in the second half after parting ways with manager Jose Mourinho.

The best value on the board here is probably in Tottenham at +900. The Hotspur finished third in the league last year and had a real shot to take the title. Out of the big clubs, the North Londoners have had the least turnover and have seen some major development from their young stars Dele Alli, Christian Eriksen and Harry Kane. They are one of the most well-rounded clubs in England’s top league but could face some distraction from their first Champions League appearance since 2011.

I see very little long-shot value on the table and I will not be one to quickly predict a team to pull off another miracle to make bettors rich. Call me a cynic but I do not see another Leicester City historic season on the horizon – but I have been wrong before.

Here are the rest of the teams' odds to take the Premier League crown:

Premier League Outright Winner Odds

Odds as of July 28 at Bovada

  • Manchester City +250
  • Manchester United +325
  • Chelsea +500
  • Arsenal +600
  • Liverpool +800
  • Tottenham Hotspur +900
  • Leicester City +3000
  • West Ham +6600
  • Everton +8000
  • Southampton +15000
  • Stoke City +25000
  • Crystal Palace +50000
  • Swansea +50000
  • West Bromwich +75000
  • Watford +100000
  • Burnley +100000
  • Middlesbrough +100000
  • Sunderland +100000
  • Bournemouth +100000

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