The Premier League relegation odds aren't always fun to think about because we're betting on three teams failing so badly that they're kicked out of the Prem. But that's just the reality of the league, three teams have to be relegated. So which ones?
We already know that Sheffield will head down to the Championship for the 24-25 season. So what are the two other sides that face the drop? Burnley are the overwhelming favorites to do so.
Premier League Relegation Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Burnley | -800 |
| Luton Town | -450 |
| Nottingham Forest | +180 |
Odds as of May 1
English Premier League Relegation Odds: Nottingham Forest
The Trees are in the driver's seat when it comes to the relegation battle. All they need to do is match Luton and Burnley's form and they stay up and the other two go down. Thankfully, for Forest, they've got a soft schedule.
Their next three games are:
- @ Sheffield United
- vs Chelsea
- @ Burnley
Sheffield is already relegated they've got nothing to play for. Chelsea has been dreadful away from Stamford Bridge with a 1-4-2 record in their last seven. Burnley has Forest's number if you look at their previous clashes, but that was before the Premier League, and it's not like Turf Moor is a fortress. Burnley is 1-1-3 in their last five home games.
I can see them picking up at least four points in this final run and that might well be enough to keep them up.
English Premier Leauge Relegation Best Value Bet: Neither
Both Burnley and Luton will go down. If I believe Forest will pick up four points in their next three Luton would need six points and Burnley would need seven. Looking at their upcoming schedules I just don't see that happening:
| Luton Remaining Games | Burnley Remaining Games |
|---|---|
| vs Everton | vs Newcastle |
| @ West Ham | @ Tottenham |
| vs Fulham | vs Nottingham Forest |
Luton has a 1-0-2 record against these opponents. The lone win came against Everton back in September. But lately, the Toffees are on fire with three straight wins over Forest (2-0), Liverpool (2-0) and Brentford (1-0). The Hatters don't stand a chance.
Meanwhile, Burnley is 0-1-2 with a gross -5 goal differential in the reverse fixtures against their three remaining opponents. No way the Clarest get enough points to stay up.
Betting on them to be relegated will yield marginal returns. It's not worth betting on them:
- A $10 bet on Burnley gives $1.25 in profit
- A $10 bet on Luton gives $2.22 in profit
I guess that would be a combined $3.47 that you didn't have before so marginal profit is still technically profit.
English Premier League Current Bottom Six
| Position | Team | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 20 | Sheffield United | 16 |
| 19 | Burnley | 24 |
| 18 | Luton Town | 25 |
| 17 | Nottingham Forest | 26 |
| 16 | Brentford | 35 |
| 15 | Everton | 36 |
Bold = In relegation zone. Table as of April 4
Last 10 Years Of Premier League Relegations
Looking over the last 10 years of the Premier League, here are the three relegated sides by season.
| Year | Relegated Team 1 | Relegated Team 2 | Relegated Team 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Southampton | Leeds United | Leicester City |
| 2022 | Norwich City | Watford | Burnley |
| 2021 | Sheffield United | West Brom Albion | Fulham |
| 2020 | Norwich City | Watford | Bournemouth |
| 2019 | Huddersfield | Fulham | Cardiff City |
| 2018 | West Brom Albion | Stoke City | Swansea |
| 2017 | Sunderland | Middlesbrough | Hull City |
| 2016 | Aston Villa | Norwich City | Newcastle United |
| 2015 | Queens Park Rangers | Burnley | Hull City |
| 2014 | Cardiff City | Fulham | Norwich City |
Looking at this list, you really get a sense of the struggles that Norwich City has gone through. They've been relegated four times in the past decade.
Fulham isn't too far behind with three relegations in the past 10 years. But unlike Norwich, the Cottagers have been able to stick in the Premier League. With Marco Silva at the helm as manager, Fulham made the top 10 for the first time since 2011-12.
