I've got three MLS expert picks for you this weekend. Now, I've gone back and looked at my previous bets to compile a season long record. Warning, it's not too great at 5-10 and -3.79 units of profits.
So, this weekend is all about turning that around. ASAP.
MLS Matchday 12 Expert Picks
Inter Miami vs New York Red Bulls
The Game: Inter Miami vs NY Red Bulls, Saturday May 4, 2024, 7:30 PM ET
| Team | Moneyline | Total | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Miami | -130 | O2.5 (-175) | -0.5 (-135) |
| NY Red Bulls | +285 | U2.5 (+140) | +0.5 (+100) |
| Draw | +300 |
Pick: O2.5 Goals (-175)
Move on the OVER right now. Just yesterday O2.5 goals was at -155. It's dropped since then to -175 and it could very well drop again.
So far this season, the total has gone over 2.5 goals in eight of Miami's 11 games. That's a nifty 73% hit rate. For the Red Bulls, it's 6-for-10 (60%). This is exactly the type of trend we're looking for when it comes to placing a bet like this.
We also can't forget that this is a duel between three of the best goal-scorers in the game with Messi, Suarez and New York's Lewis Morgan. All three are in the race for the MLS Golden Boot. That combination of fire-power can't be stopped.
SJ Earthquakes vs LAFC
The Game: SJ Earthquakes vs LAFC, Saturday, May 4, 7:30 PM ET
| Team | Moneyline | Total | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| SJ Earthquakes | +220 | O2.5 (-165) | +0.5 (-135) |
| LAFC | +100 | U2.5 (+105) | -0.5 (+100) |
| Draw | +275 |
Pick: LAFC ML (+100)
I get that LAFC has been bad on the road this year with 0-1-3 record. But, I'm buoyed by FC's strong performances lately with a 2-2-0 record and a +3.8 expected goal differential in that run. Oh, and Bouanga has scored six goals in six games. So their start is playing like one (finally).
And let's be honest, we are talking about San Jose here. The Quakes hold the worst record in the league at 1-1-8 and a -11 goal differential. The Falcons aren't going up against the creme of the crop here. I like for their road woes to end this weekend.
DC United vs Philadelphia Union
The Game: DC United vs Philadelphia Union, Saturday, May 4, 7:30 PM ET
| Team | Moneyline | Total | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| DC United | +135 | O2.5 (-150) | -0.5 (-130) |
| Philadelphia Union | +195 | U2.5 (+120) | +0.5 (-175) |
| Draw | +225 |
Pick: O2.5 Goals (-150)
We're looking at two of the four most potent offensive teams in the Eastern Conference. Philadelphia is second with 17 goals and DC is tied for third with 14 goals. And both of these sides have made a pretty good habit of hitting the OVER. For Philly, it's 78% while for DC it's 60%.
And for all of their offense, they've got defensive issues too.
In Philly's last three games, they've allowed seven goals (2.3 per game) for DC it's six in their last three for (2.0 per game). Good offense meets bad defense. On both sides. The OVER hits.
Oh. While I'm on the subject of a lot of goals. How about we spare a thought for both teams to score in this one? The line is -195. The 19 games these two teams have played this year, and 'both teams to score' has hit 16 times (84%). That's a good bet.
