MLS Golden Boot Odds: Just Give It To Messi Already

Goals are what everyone comes to see. Our MLS Golden Boot odds will help handicappers decide who ends the MLS season with the most goals in the league. 

Messi is the favorite, and we all understand why, but don't forget about Suarez or even Real Salt Lake's Arango.

2024 MLS Golden Boot Odds

Odds as of May 2

MLS Golden Boot Odds: Lionel Messi

The GOAT is doing the thing. Messi has goals in six of his seven games and goals in six straight, including four goals in his last two games. This is the type of play we all saw in the Leagues Cup last year but not so much in the MLS with one goal in six games.

Another day, another masterclass! 🎩 Leo Messi secures the @MLS Player of the Matchday award with his phenomenal three-goal contributions. 🐐🩷🖤 pic.twitter.com/CP4o7TdShj

— Inter Miami CF (@InterMiamiCF) April 29, 2024

And look, he could be better. I know that sounds insane, but it's true. His SOT% (48.6)is 17th in the league so he's wasting a number of those shots. And his goals per shot on target (0.47) is 68th. Guys like Antony (0.60) and Giokoumakis (0.50) are better.

Look, Messi is dominating but to think he could probably be better is frightening. You know what? Just give the MLS Golden Boot to him already. We've got a lot of season left, but he's just so much better than the field.

PS: With Messi and Suarez (more on him in a second) scoring at will. The OVER seems like an easy play for Miami games. The total has gone OVER 2.5 goals eight times in 11 games (73%). This weekend's clash between Miami and NY Red Bulls sees the line at 2.5 goals. The OVER is -155. You have to Hulk smash that line. 

MLS Golden Boot Value Picks

Luis Suarez (Inter Miami)

Spare a thought for Luis Suarez whose odds present a ton of value. He's already scored 2.2 goals above expected to begin the year. If Miami's Urugaying striker can stay healthy for a full season he's going to finish near the top of the scoring table. There's no doubt of this. 

Remember, he's won the Golden Boot in three different countries over his trophy-laden career:

He's got the pedigree and the early results to give him more than a 13% chance according to the implied odds. That's value, my friends. 

Cristian Arango (Real Salt Lake)

Eight goals in nine games is an excellent return. And he's only one goal back of the greatest player of our generation (sorry Ronaldo). Not to mention, netting 2.4 goals above expected will always be grounds for including someone in the discussion for the Golden Boot.

And it goes beyond the individual stats with Arango. His team is doing a great job of putting the ball into goal-scoring areas. Real Salt Lake's 368 passes into the final third are fourth in the league. Only Columbus, LA Galaxy and Inter Miami are better

With that kind of service and Arango's clinical finish, it's a match made in heaven for the Golden Boot.

MLS Golden Boot Tracker

Below is the table for MLS scoring leaders as well as their cumulative xG so you can see who's overperforming and who's underperforming. 

MLS Golden Boot - Last 10 Winners

Bradley Wright-Phillips, the former Manchester City player, is the only two-time MLS top goal scorer. The Englishman had a heck of an MLS career, scoring 117 goals across 234 career appearances for a conversion rate of a goal every other game. Excellent.