It's Friday! And like every day of the week, we've got more YRFI/NRFI picks (Yes/No Run First Inning). Only fools wait all nine innings to cash their bets when there's an option to get your MLB fix in six outs.
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Here are my two Y/NRFI bets for Friday, May 10:
Pick 1: Twins vs Blue Jays: No Run First Inning (-135)
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 7:07 pm ET
I hesitate to use the world lock, but this is close, especially at fair -135 odds.
The Blue Jays offense has been bottom of the barrel this season, ranking 25th in runs scored as the club battles its own run-production demons. While more successful in the win-loss department, the Twins struggle in the first inning. Toronto's .669 first-inning OPS ranks 19th in baseball, while the Twins are only marginally better at .696, 15th in MLB. Again, these trends suggest we'll have a quiet first frame Friday.
Yusei Kikuchi is a secret weapon, too. The lefty has been the Blue Jays' best pitcher this season, buoyed by a sexy 1.29 ERA in the first inning (one run allowed in seven starts). Joe Ryan (2.57 ERA) is quite smooth in the first inning, as well.
I think we could see generally a quiet game after the first inning. Ryan's numbers against the Jays aren't great (.808 OPS allowed), but Isiah Kiner-Falefa's lone grand slam off Ryan is doing a lot of the heavy lifting. For example, the Twins righty has better numbers against Justin Turner, which is why I also suggest an UNDER bet on Turner's 1.5 total bases Friday.
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Pick 2: Braves vs Mets: No Run First Inning (-115)
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 7:10 pm ET
My eyes lit up when I saw the odds for this bet. While the Braves (17-17 NRFI) and Mets (21-15 YRFI) are relatively neutral trend-wise, this starting pitching matchup is too good to pass up.
Braves starter Charlie Morton is still dicing at 40 years old, and he's been hot out the games in all six starts this season. The right-hander has yet to allow a first-inning run, leading the Braves to a 6-0 NRFI record in games Morton starts. That's some sharp evidence. And it only gets better.
Mets starter Jose Quintana is similarly stingy. The Colombian left-hander has allowed one lousy first-inning earned run in seven starts this year. In fact, he's allowed just four hits in the first all season. As a result, New York is 6-1 NRFI. That's glorious for our bet.
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