Betting NFL Season Win Totals
Spreads, totals, and futures are all the rage in NFL betting, but season win totals are gaining popularity among NFL bettors. That’s especially the case with the 2011 season just around the corner.
Keep in mind that a listed season win total isn’t a prediction by oddsmakers, but a number designed to attract action on both the ‘over’ and the ‘under’. With that piece of knowledge as a guiding principle, there’s value to be had betting season win totals.
Money can be made on this type of wager mainly because this is a tough task for the guys setting the lines: There are so many factors that come into play. If you have a good hunch that a certain team is primed to play either ‘over’ or ‘under’ their season win total, it’s probably time to do some more homework.
The first step in studying the upcoming season in order to get a handle on a team’s season win total is to evaluate the previous campaign. If you don’t know what happened last season, you’ll be in over your head in picking winners.
Did a team get lucky last season? Did they punch above their numbers based on scoring margin and offensive and defensive rankings? On the other side of the coin, were they unlucky and/or the victims of tough schedule or injury problems?
Once you have those elements figured out, look at the gap between last season’s finish and this season’s win total. How sizable is the difference? Can they win more games? Or are they ready for a setback?
Finally, don’t forget to look ahead. Is this team on the rise or the decline? What’s their strength of schedule? Have they signed any key free agents or made coaching changes? Are they a public team that tends to be overvalued by the betting public?
Winning more NFL season win total bets is a marathon, not a sprint. And it takes training to avoid the pitfalls that can damage your bankroll.