I might as well have sat last week out with a gross 2/6 performance but considering how the public fared against the spread in Week 3, I’m actually happy with nearly breaking even.
Bigger and better things are on the horizon for The Pick 6 and Week 4 will be my ascent to the tippy-top of the NFL handicapping mountain.
The Pick: 6-Point Teaser: Packers -1, OVER 38.5 (-120)
The Stats: Too many to list them all but the Packers are 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games against the Bears, 7-1 SU in Aaron Rodgers’ last eight starts against the Bears and they’re 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as favorites of 7.5 or more points. In regards to the OVER, the Packers’ OVER/UNDER record would be 18-4 if their last 22 games had all had totals of 38.5.
This is an awesome two-leg teaser. I actually really like the Packers at -7 – where they were pegged by Vegas Thursday afternoon – and I’m predicting a 31-17 result for the green and gold.
And here’s a full preview of Thursday’s action.
The Pick: Broncos -3 (EVEN)
The Stat: The Broncos are 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games since the beginning of 2015 when they’ve had a closing total in the range of 45-50.
Pretty simple here as I plan on taking the Broncos at home all season. They’re favored by three against a Raiders team that’s coming off an awful performance against the Redskins and I think they could roll. They’ve looked incredible in their first two games in Denver – save the final few minutes against the Chargers – and that should continue all season.
The Broncos’ superior defense runs offenses ragged in the elevated conditions at Mile High and the opposing defensive units can’t keep up with the running game of the Orange Crush. Denver wins by a touchdown or more on Sunday afternoon.
The Pick: Giants +3 (-110)
The Stat: No stat, this is all gut instinct, baby. Well, the Giants’ 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS run against the Bucs doesn’t hurt either.
The Giants are not an 0-4 team. They have a good defense and one of the best receiving corps in the NFL. Jameis Winston is going to have trouble against New York’s secondary and Eli Manning – if he gets his head screwed on – could have a field day against the Bucs’ second-tier defenders.
He and Odell Beckham Jr. racked up insane stat lines in the fourth quarter against the Eagles and I expect that to continue now that they’ve rediscovered their chemistry.
The Pick: Moneyline Parlay with Falcons, Seahawks, Patriots and Cowboys (+120)
The Stats: The Falcons are 12-2 SU in their last 14 games as home favorites of 8 points or more, the Patriots are 19-1 SU in their last 20 games as home favorites of 9 points or more, the Seahawks are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games after a loss, the Cowboys are 16-1 SU in their last 17 games as home favorites of 6 points or more.
The trends and the juice on each of these individual plays really speak for themselves. All four teams are at home and they should each win their games handily.
The Pick: Jets SU (+155)
The Stat: The Jags are not good when they come back from London.
Yes, I really meant to pick the Jets.
They beat the Jaguars 28-23 in 2015 when they hosted them the week after they returned from London and I think they might do it again after they pasted the Dolphins in Week 3. While there isn’t much to like about either team in New York, the Jets have a respectable defense and it appears that Josh McCown has developed enough of a rapport with his receivers to keep his team in some games.
The Pick: Bills vs Falcons OVER 48.5
The Stat: 11 straight Falcons home games have gone OVER and only one of those games had a total lower than 48.5.
Easy-peasy. I’m riding the Falcons OVER inside a dome trend until it lets me down. I promised you that last week and I’ll promise it again today. This one could cut it close given how good the Bills defense has looked but I’m not worried. Matt Ryan will get us our OVER.
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