Kentucky Derby Betting Preview

Early odds on the 137th Running of the Roses are posted, and as expected Dialed In is the current favorite to win the 2011 Kentucky Derby.

Currently at 3/1 to win at Bovada, he could drop to 2/1 or lower by post time once the general public bets heavily on the favorite. Dialed In has a win in his maiden special race at Churchill Downs as well as wins in both Grade 1 stakes races he’s run.

Nick Zito might have another Kentucky Derby winner in Dialed In if the pace is fast enough for him to close at the right time. If you think that he is unproven he should at least be part of a good percentage of any exotics you bet on.

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After losing to Toby’s Corner in the Wood Memorial, all the hype around Uncle Mo quickly faded away. But the recent withdrawal of Toby’s Corner from the Kentucky Derby has pushed Uncle Mo back into the contention picture. He currently sits at 4/1 to win, which isn’t much considering his failure to contend at longer than 1 mile and 1/8.

We think that the odds on Uncle Mo will also drop by race time with all the media that exists on his two-year-old campaign, so despite all the hype, we’re going to pass on him at 1 mile and 1/4 against a big field. [ See the Derby Top 10 ]

We think the best value in this race will be on Steve Asmussen trained closer Nehro to win at Churchill Downs. Currently at 8/1, we could see that number increase if most of the action remains on the favorites. Nehro is a strong closer that ran out track twice at 1 mile and 1/8, and if he can run clean he should be picking off horses with ease over the last two furlongs.

This horse would be wise part of most exotics as well. [ Contenders article and 260% bonus at racebook ]

Arkansas Derby winner Archarcharch has also shown an ability to run well over a mile and has a pedigree that would suggest he would do well at 1 mile and 1/4. He currently has a 10/1 payout, but that line could be less at post. At worst he’s another sound consideration for your exotics and he climbed to No. 2 on some Derby Top 10 lists. [ Derby story on Uncle Mo scratch. ]

Our longshot pick for the 137th Running of the Roses is 35/1 Twinspired. Despite having most of his success against inferior competition, Twinspired has shown the ability to run well at 1 mile and 1/8.

We don’t suggest investing a lot on him to win, but he could help to pad up an exotic or two with a good showing over the final furlong.

Odds to win the 2011 Kentucky Derby - courtesy of Bovada :
    
1. Archarcharch        12/1
    
2. Brilliant Speed    30/1
    
3. Twice the Appeal    20/1
    
4. Stay Thirsty        22/1
    
5. Decisive Moment    40/1
    
6. Comma to the Top    35/1
    
7. Pants on Fire    25/1
    
8. Dialed In        4/1
    
9. Derby Kitten        30/1
    
10. Twinspired        30/1
    
11. Master of Hounds    18/1
    
12. Santiva        25/1
    
13. Mucho Macho Man    12/1
    
14. Shackleford        12/1
    
15. Midnight Interlude    10/1
    
16. Animal Kingdom    30/1
    
17. Soldat        13/1
    
18. Uncle Mo        9/2
    
19. Nehro    8/1
    
20. Watch Me Go    60/1
   

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