What are the odds that Philip Humber will throw a great game for the Chicago White Sox Thursday on the heels of his perfect game last week?
Pretty low, if you look at the past five pitchers who threw a perfect game. So when Humber faces the Boston Red Sox at U.S. Cellular Field Thursday, he'll be facing Felix Doubront and a solid Boston lineup, but also facing an unfavorable trend.
Only Roy Halladay's Phillies were able to win in those five recent perfect games. They beat San Diego but Halladay struggled, giving up 10 hits.
The others - David Cone for the Yankees in 1999, Randy Johnson for Arizona in 2004, Mark Buehrle (pictured) in 2009 and Dallas Braden in 2010 - were all beaten next time out.
And all except Johnson struggled badly. Does this make Boston a solid underdog play today? History says yes.
On the opening MLB line for this matchup, Chicago sat as -140 favorites as Philip Humber looks to become only the second pitcher in history to throw back-to-back no-hitters (Johnny Vandermeer is the other). The total was set at 8 over at .
The White Sox sit at No. 1 in the American League in the current MLB power poll here at Odds Shark, while the Red Sox sit at an American League No. 2 on the same chart.
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Chicago's No. 7 ranked American League offense (4.2 runs per game) against a Red Sox defense and pitching staff that sits at No. 14 in the American League at 6.4 runs allowed per game. The White Sox have been averaging 8.6 hits per game, less than the Red Sox have managed so far this season (10.2 hits on average).
Chicago owns the American League's No. 3 defense, allowing 3.3 men per game to cross the plate. That contrasts with Boston's American League No. 14-rated defense.
The Red Sox were a 7-6 winner in their most recent outing on the road against the Twins. That made winners of bettors who got Boston at -118 on the moneyline, while the total score (13) was good news for OVER bettors. Boston got the job done in their last match in a 7-6 victory over Minnesota on Wednesday at Target Field behind starter Clay Buchholz.
Last time out for Chicago, they were a 5-4 loser as they battled the Athletics on the road. Moneyline bettors who got the Athletics at +114 were rewarded, while the 9 combined runs moved the game OVER for totals bettors. Chicago lost in extra innings against the Athletics on Wednesday as Oakland edged them 5-4 at O.co Coliseum.
Boston Red Sox Trends:
When playing on Thursday are 6-4
Before playing Chi White Sox are 2-8
After playing Minnesota are 7-3
After a win are 4-6
Chicago White Sox Trends:
When playing on Thursday are 8-2
Before playing Boston are 7-3
After playing Oakland are 3-7
After a loss are 6-4
A few Red Sox at White Sox trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 7 games when playing Chi White Sox
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Boston's last 10 games when playing on the road against Chi White Sox
Chi White Sox are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games when playing Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Chi White Sox's last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 7 games when playing Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chi White Sox's last 10 games when playing at home against Boston
Boston at Chi White Sox, Friday, April 27