It may be Spring Training time, but it's never too early for some MLB expert picks. I've got three picks for today's MLB action, but I'm trying out a new strategy for spring training handicapping overall: taking home underdogs.
I'll get into why I'm trying the strategy and some daily picks, with lines from top sportsbooks.
MLB Expert Picks: February 28th, 2024
You can jump directly to today's picks here:
Game 1: Pittsburgh Pirates (+104) vs Detroit Tigers
Game Time: 1:05 PM ET
Alright, let's get into my spring betting strategy: home underdogs. Spring Training baseball is chaos, especially early. Starting pitchers come out after a few innings, hitters don't play more than half the game, and by the end of things it's Single-A players deciding outcomes. So, to take advantage of that chaos, I'll be betting only underdogs.
The reason I'm leaning home dogs, specifically, is because home teams often trot out better and deeper starting lineups than the road squads. So, that's just another added edge that moves the needle. This is a bit of an experiment, but I've got high hopes for results.
You can see the lineup edge in this specific matchup, already. At the time of writing this the Pirates haven't yet released their Wednesday lineup, but the Tigers have. They're really only sending two or three projected starters to Bradenton to face the Pirates (CF Parker Meadows and infielders Gio Urshela and Zach McKinstry). So, the home underdog is the play.
Game 2: Texas Rangers (+126) vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Game Time: 3:05 PM ET
The reigning World Series champs are significant underdogs? Even with a reliable MLB starter like Cody Bradford on the mound?
I get the draw of watching Yoshinobu Yamamoto's first Dodger start, but that shine doesn't mean LA should be road favorites in this spring bout.
The Rangers are still a really good squad who should trot out a solid lineup for the home crowd. And, it's unlikely we see guys like Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, or Shohei Ohtani in LA's lineup today, as they all played yesterday. So, it's time to fade the Yoshi debut and back the home dogs in Texas!
Game 3: Chicago White Sox (+102) vs San Diego Padres
Game Time: 3:05 PM ET
Okay, this one's a real test of my experiment. There's really not much basis to be betting on a bad White Sox team with a bad starter on the mound (Deivi Garcia) against the Padres. BUT, we've gotta stick to the system.
Hopefully the White Sox put out a solid lineup, the Padres don't travel many regulars, and we get out of here with a Chicago upset win.
